【环球时报记者 丁雅栀 环球时报驻美国特约记者 郑 可】编者的话：近日，媒体报道称，字节跳动旗下元宇宙相关的PICO业务线将会进行一波“大裁员”，这让本就因为聊天机器人程序ChatGPT的出现而加速冷却的元宇宙概念，变得更加冰冷。在PICO裁员消息传出后不久，腾讯宣布XR（是虚拟现实VR、增强现实AR和混合现实MR等沉浸式技术的总称）全线岗位取消。而美国元宇宙巨头Meta一边裁员一万多人一边大砍运营预算，微软成立仅4个月的工业元宇宙团队也被砍掉，寒意遍布元宇宙行业的各个角落。那么，元宇宙真的“凉了”吗？它会是又一个资本吹起的泡沫吗？对此，《环球时报》记者展开了调查。
In recent days, media reports have said that PICO lines associated with the byte-jumping of the universe will be eliminated. And that makes the concept of meta-cosm, which was accelerated by the advent of chat robotic program ChatGPT, even colder. Soon after PICO layoffs, it is announced that XR (a virtual reality VR, an enhanced reality AR, and a combination of impregnable technologies such as MR) will be eliminated.
热度不再
No more heat.
这段时间，王庆言加的科技爱好者交流群里热火朝天地与人工智能聊天软件对话，几位好友争相晒出与这些软件的聊天内容，并分享自己的使用心得。“AIGC（即AI Generated Content，是指利用人工智能技术来生成内容）商业模式”“人工智能能否取代人类劳动力”等话题牢牢霸占着聊天页面，曾经把群里好友凝聚起来的“元宇宙”好像已成明日黄花，这三字鲜有人再提起。“现在提到元宇宙好像都是很久远的事了。”
During this period, Wang Qingqiang's technocrats have been talking to the heavens and the earth about artificial smart chat software, and several friends have been competing to get chats with these software and share their own use. & & ldquo; AIGC (AI Gendered Centre) business models & & rdquo; & & ldquo; whether artificial intelligence can replace the human labour force & rdquo; and & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & & ;
2021年3月，元宇宙概念第一股罗布乐思（Roblox）在纽交所正式上市，市值翻10倍吹响了进军元宇宙的号角，各大互联网公司纷纷抢滩布局元宇宙赛道：2021年5月，脸书表示将在5年内转型成为一家元宇宙公司，并更名为“Meta”；同年8月，字节跳动斥资50亿元收购VR公司PICO，布局元宇宙。
In March 2021, Roblox, the first share of the dollar cosmos concept, was officially listed at the New Deal House, with a market value of 10 times the horn of entry into the military universe, and major Internet companies seized the beach-cosmos track: in May 2021, Facebook indicated that it would be transformed into a Won cosmos company and renamed & ldquo; Meta” and in August of the same year, the byte jumped to buy the VR company PICO, the Confederate Cosmos.
2022年，元宇宙依然风头无两。财联社创投通联合IT桔子发布的《2022年全球元宇宙投融资报告》显示，在投融资方面，2022年全球元宇宙产业共发生了704笔融资，总金额达868.67亿元人民币，其中，中国国内元宇宙融资达125起，融资总额为127亿元。元宇宙的落地场景多点开花，以数字藏品、虚拟人、虚拟会展、XR行业、人工智能为代表的产业落地。
In 2022, the Won-Cosmos remained the same as in 2022. According to the report on the financing of the 2022 Global Geo-Cosmos Investment, published by the Association of Financial Institutions for Investment Unions, 704 investments were made in 2022 in the global Won-Cosmos industry, amounting to 86,867 million yuan, of which 125 were financed in China’s domestic Won-Cosmos, with a total financing of 12.7 billion yuan. The Won-Cosmos’ landing scenes have opened with a number of flowering sites, representing digital collections, virtuals, virtual fairs, the XR industry and artificial intelligence.
然而，在人工智能界的新宠ChatGPT横空出世后，其在互联网的声量也盖过了元宇宙的其他赛道。一度有媒体报道称，元宇宙的热度已经结束。海内外多家科技公司也应声收缩应声元宇宙业务线，元宇宙似乎难逃退潮的命运。
However, after the advent of the new artificial intelligence community, ChatGPT’s voice overflows the other track of the meta-cosmos. At one time, the media reported that the heat of the meta-cosmos was over.
在某大厂工作的罗丰勤告诉《环球时报》记者，当初公司投身元宇宙赛道是希望扩展业务线的同时，从中获得收益，但在投入大量的人力物力之后，发现这条赛道并没有带来预期的收益。“在对新鲜事物的热情褪去之后，公司对自己的发展规划变得更加理性。”不过，他也表示，大厂在元宇宙业务方面的调整并不意味着元宇宙“凉了”，也可能是在思考更适合的发展路径。
Lo Fongqin, who worked in one of the big factories, told Global Times reporters that the company had invested in the Yuan Cosmos track and benefited from it at the same time as it wanted to expand the business line, but after investing a great deal of human and material resources, it found that the track had not yielded the expected benefits. Andldquo; after the enthusiasm for new things faded, the company had become more rational about its own development plans. Andrdquo; he also said, however, that the changes in the company’s meta-cosm operations did not mean the meta-coastal & ldquao; that it was cold & rdquao; and that it might be thinking about a more suitable development path.
VR内容创业公司CEO雷峥蒙表示，现在跟 PICO 的对接事宜一切如常。
The VR content start-up company CEO Leymont stated that the interface with PICO is as usual.
一位元宇宙行业从业人员告诉《环球时报》记者，AIGC的“涨潮”并不意味着元宇宙的消亡，事实上，内容是元宇宙技术体系中的一个重要环节，它的发展有助于推动整个元宇宙的发展进程，二者的关系应该是相辅相成的。
The relationship between AGC & & ldquo; & & rdquao, a meta-cosm industry practitioner, who told Global Times journalist, does not mean the demise of the meta-cosm, in fact an important link in the meta-cosm technology system, the development of which contributes to the development of the entire meta-cosm should be mutually reinforcing.
新技术应首先与现实融合
New technologies should first be integrated with reality.
实际上，元宇宙从受众人追捧到如今被人们称之为“遥远的记忆”，不过短短一年多的时间，而让诸多押注元宇宙会点燃科技产业的投资者损失重大的原因，就是助力元宇宙发展的基础设施还并不成熟。美国“政治”网站在报道中称，开发元宇宙是一项资本密集型的项目，元宇宙的架构决定了它需要整合5G、云计算、区块链、物联网、人工智能、虚拟现实和人机交互等多种技术，涵盖了从极其棘手的硬件开发到加强支持它的计算和网络基础设施的方方面面。这意味着，在科技行业面临严峻的经济逆风之际，即使是一些最狂热的科技传播者和架构师也在调整他们的预期。
In fact, the meta-cosmos has been promoted from its audience to what is now known as “ distant memories & & rdquo; but, for more than a year, many investors in the art industry have lost much of their time, because the infrastructure for enabling the development of the meta-cosm is not yet ripe. America & ldquo; politics & & rdquo; the website reports that the development of the meta-cosmos is a capital-intensive project whose structure determines the need to integrate technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, sector chains, network of goods, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and interpersonal interaction, covering aspects ranging from the development of extremely difficult hardware to strengthening the computing and network infrastructure that supports it. This means that even some of the most fanatical technology distributors and architects are adjusting their expectations at a time when the industry is facing a severe economic reverse.
Meta的顾问兼负责创新的前主管兹维卡·克里格称，“元宇宙是一个长期的游戏”。事实上，就算是曾经财大气粗的Meta也栽在了元宇宙这个庞大的虚拟概念上。由于投入产出比严重失调，导致Meta股价暴跌，巨亏200亿美元，并因此被迫裁掉1.1万名员工，相当于该公司总人数的13%。但为了将元宇宙这个梦想落实，Meta仍旧在其“现实实验室”（Reality Lab）上追加投资，并期望借此实现长期增加公司整体营收的目标。
Meta’s consultant and former director of innovation, Zveka & Middot; Craig’s claim that & ldquo; the metaco is a long-term game & rdquo; in fact, even the once-rich Meta was caught up in the vast virtual concept of the metaco. The price of Meta’s shares fell sharply by $20 billion as a result of a gross imbalance in input output, and as a result it was forced to cut more than 11,000 employees, equivalent to 13% of the company’s total. But in order to give effect to the dream of the meta cosmos, Meta is still on its & ldquao; the reality laboratory & rdquao; Reality Lab) has made additional investments, and is expected to achieve the goal of increasing corporate revenues over the long term.
有钱可烧的公司不止Meta，微软董事会成员与来自Meta的投资人组成了一个名为XR的协会，包括谷歌、三星和索尼互动娱乐等AR/VR界的头部企业都参与其中，旨在确保可以将元宇宙这个“长期游戏”进行下去。
The company with money to burn is not only Meta, but Microsoft board members and investors from Meta form an association called XR, which includes heads of AR/VR companies such as Google, Samsung and Sony Interactive Entertainment, to ensure that the metaspace & ldquao; long-term games & rdquao; and goes on.
Atlas Reality的首席执行官兼联合创始人萨米·汗认为，参与元宇宙搭建的科技公司应考虑三个主要因素：一是让人们使用他们已经拥有的硬件，比如智能手机来接触元宇宙，而不是价格高昂的头戴设备；第二，元宇宙当前的最佳版本应是使用技术来增强人们生活的现实世界；第三，让元宇宙走到用户所在的地方。萨米·汗认为，大型科技公司需要了解真实世界，并增强这些体验，而不仅仅是创造一种新的体验来推动更多收入。
The chief executive officer and co-founder of Atlas Reality, Sami & Middot; Khan believes that technology companies involved in the construction of the meta-cosm should consider three main factors: first, that people should use the hardware they already possess, such as smart phones, to reach out to the meta-cosmos rather than high-priced headwear equipment; secondly, that the best current version of the meta-cosm should be the use of technology to enhance the real world of people's lives; thirdly, that the meta-cosm should be moved to where the users are. Sami & Middot; Khan believes that large technology companies need to understand the real world and enhance these experiences, rather than simply create a new experience to promote more income.
与仍旧显得远离现实的元宇宙带给人的体验不同，由人工智能创造的新热潮成为继元宇宙之后再次点燃商业世界的火把。继苹果公司的Siri、亚马逊的Alexa和其他企业客户服务聊天机器人之后，人工智能现在有一个更加突出的面孔：ChatGPT。
Unlike the meta-cosm, which still seems distant from reality, a new tide created by artificial intelligence has become a torch for the commercial world again. After Suri of Apple, Alexa of Amazonia, and other corporate client-serving chat robots, artificial intelligence now has a more prominent face: ChatGPT.
但面对元宇宙的滑铁卢，人工智能是否会成为新的泡沫？人工智能爱好者们声称，这项技术是革命性的。消费者可以清楚地看到他们如何使用该技术以及它如何使他们受益。而人工智能及其背后的大数据技术已经成熟到可以支撑这项技术长期发展，并且用户并不需要硬件门槛来筛选。这样看来，它确实可能不是泡沫，但元宇宙就真的凉凉了吗？元宇宙的资深研究学者马修·鲍尔认为，能够在智能手机上应用的大量AR应用程序有望成为元宇宙的解药，只有硬件和软件到位，元宇宙才能在商业上成为可能。
And artificial intelligence and the big data technology behind it are mature enough to support the long-term development of the technology, and users do not need hardware thresholds to screen it. So it may not be bubbles, but the meta-cosm is really cool.
需求依然存在
Demand still exists.
“舆论上的冷热不代表产业的冷热，更不能决定产业未来的走向。”清华大学新闻学院教授、元宇宙文化实验室主任沈阳表示。
& ldquo; The coldness of public opinion does not represent the coldness of the industry, much less the future direction of the industry.
他认为，从舆论上看，最新的人工智能聊天软件分流掉一部分关注度是正常的。ChatGPT的大热让人们更加直观感受到近些年人工智能的飞速发展。它为科技产业生产力跃升带来了新动能，让行业看到了广泛的应用空间，找到了新的发展风口。
In his view, it is normal for the latest AI chat software to divert some of its attention from public opinion. The heat of ChatGPT has increased people’s perception of the rapid growth of artificial intelligence in recent years. It has brought new dynamic energy to the productivity of the technology industry, allowing the industry to see a wide range of applications and to find new development poles.
今年2月，多家科技公司对外表示，计划接入人工智能聊天软件。遥望科技在回复投资者提问时表示，公司计划基于GPT（一种生成式的预训练模型）技术框架做直播带货的AIGC生成。蓝色光标也在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司正在积极试用ChatGPT技术。
In February of this year, a number of technology companies indicated that they were planning to access artificial smart chat software. In response to investors’ questions, remote technology said that companies were planning to produce AGCs for live delivery based on the GPT (a pre-training model) technical framework. The blue cursor also said that the company was actively testing ChatGPT technology when responding to investors’ questions on interactive platforms.
沈阳认为，元宇宙与AIGC并不是二元对立的关系，事实上，AIGC的发展将会极大促进虚拟人和数字生命领域的进一步拓展，对元宇宙的技术进步有巨大价值。他说：“元宇宙包含了基本上所有的现有互联网技术，人工智能在其中占据重要位置。元宇宙需要人工智能生成语言空间，生成虚拟人，离开人工智能，元宇宙中的虚拟人与内容交互就无法做到极致。当下，元宇宙的技术突破难度不亚于AIGC，正因元宇宙技术还没有完全成熟，所以我们才更要埋头苦干。”
Shenyang argued that the meta-cosmos was not a binary relationship with AIGC; indeed, the development of AIGC would greatly contribute to the further expansion of the sphere of virtual and digital life and would be of great value to the technological advancement of the meta-cosm. He said: “ the meta-cosmos contains virtually all available Internet technology, in which artificial intelligence occupies an important place. The meta-cosmos requires artificial intelligence to generate a language space, create a virtual person, leave an artificial intelligence, and it is impossible for virtuals in the meta-cosm to interact with content.
对于国内外多家科技公司裁员、缩减业务线的行为，沈阳解释道：“国内外科技巨头之所以裁员，主要有几个原因：一是实现技术突破的资金投入达百亿量级，大部分公司都负担不起，二是去年经济形势不好，企业需要优化调整组织架构，三则是有的企业，比如微软，已经拥有OpenAI（ChatGPT背后的人工智能研究实验室），没必要在这种情况下继续维持庞大的工业元宇宙团队。”
Shenyang explained: “ among the main reasons why technology giants in the country and abroad have been retrenched: firstly, the amount of money invested to achieve technological breakthroughs is up to 10 billion and most companies cannot afford it; secondly, the economic situation in the past year has been bad, businesses need to optimize their organizational structure; and thirdly, companies such as Microsoft, which already own the OpenAI (the artificial intelligence research laboratory behind the ChatGPT), do not need to maintain large teams of industrial cosmopolitans in this context.
目前，仍有许多科技公司在元宇宙领域持续发力。遥望科技公司规划在2023年发力虚拟人直播等业务；天娱数科也在互动平台表示，公司下属子公司元境科技致力于用AIGC推动元宇宙进入智能时代，更加关注数字人与ChatGPT等模型的整合应用。
There are many technology companies that are still active in the meta-cosm. Tele-Technology plans to do business in 2023, such as live virtual humans live, and the Science and Technology Section is also on the interactive platform, where it says that geotech, a subsidiary of the company, is committed to using AIGC to drive the meta-cosm into the intelligent age, focusing more on the integration of digital people and models such as ChatGPT.
对元宇宙的需求依然广泛存在。沈阳表示，很多领域都需要三维化空间，比如文旅教育、技能培训、医疗等等，但是这些在企业端应用广泛，但是对于个人消费者来说，元宇宙的便利度不够，设备可用性不足等种种原因导致用户端难以赚钱。
There is still widespread demand for meta-cosm. Shenyang states that many areas require three-dimensional space, such as education, skills training, medical care, etc., but these are widely used at the enterprise level, but for personal consumers, the meta-cosm is not sufficiently convenient and equipment is not available to make money.
当下，元宇宙的发展不会一蹴而就，行业还要在技术研发、产品适配、人才培养等方方面面投入更多时间、精力和金钱，关于规范和推动元宇宙的相关政策，以及元宇宙落地场景也在不断更新。沈阳认为：“元宇宙发展难度非常大，目前看来还有很多技术瓶颈需要突破，因此发展进程出现高低起伏也是正常的。只要它代表着生产力的发展方向，它就有可能在未来取得突破。”
At a time when the development of the meta-cosmos will not take place overnight, the industry will have to invest more time, energy and money in technological development, product adaptation, talent development, policies to regulate and promote the meta-cosmos, and the landscape of the meta-cosm is constantly being updated. Shenyang believes that & ldquo; that the development of the meta-cosmos is very difficult and that there seem to be many technological bottlenecks that need to be broken, so that it is normal to have high and low swings in the development process. As long as it represents the direction of productivity, it is likely that it will make a breakthrough in the future.
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