分析师 | Carol 编辑 | Tong 出品 | PANews
Analyst Carol Tong PANews
最近一个月，比特币币价连创新高，连续快速突破多个整数关口。根据CoinMetrics的最新数据，11月17日，比特币校正后的币价已经达到了17682美元，创下了自2017年12月18日以后的最高点，同时也创下了比特币历史第5高价。
In the last month, Bitcoin has been innovative and has been breaking fast through multiple integer gates. According to the latest data from CoinMetrics, on November 17, the currency has been corrected to US$ 17682, the highest since December 18, 2017, and the fifth highest in Bitcoin history.
比特币大涨，市场情绪乐观，在这背后，比特币的基本面发生了怎样的变化？另一方面，交易所合规风波一波未平一波又起，在强监管之下，各交易所之间的资金动向又有哪些新的变化？PAData将通过近期链上数据和市场数据回顾此次比特币上涨的图景。
How did the basics of Bitcoins change? On the other hand, there was a wave of exchange compliance, and, under strong supervision, there were new changes in financial movements between exchanges? PAData will review the picture of this bitcoin rise through data from the immediate chain and market data.
币价连创新高，但算力略有下降
The currency was innovative, but the arithmetic fell slightly.
根据CoinMetrics的统计，最近一个月，比特币从10月15日的11503美元一路“高歌猛进”至11月17日的17682美元，涨幅高达53.72%。
According to CoinMetrics, in the last month, Bitcoin went from $11,503 on 15 October to $17,682 on 17 November, an increase of 53.72 per cent.
回顾比特币近期的上涨轨迹，可以发现，比特币基本以每周向上突破一个整数关口的速度快速上涨。10月21日，比特币突破12000美元，10月24日，比特币突破13000美元，11月4日，比特币突破14000美元，11月 5日，比特币突破15000美元，11月12日，比特币突破16000美元，11月17日，比特币突破17000美元。截至发稿，比特币已经突破了18000美元。并且，比特币在这一轮上涨途中没有出现明显回调，“一气呵成”的涨势展示了强劲的上涨动力。
Looking back at Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory, it can be seen that bitcoin has risen rapidly, largely at the rate of breaking an integer gate every week. On October 21, Bitcoin broke $12,000, on October 24, Bitcoin broke $13,000, on November 4, Bitcoin broke $14,000, on November 5, Bitcoin broke $15,000, on November 12, Bitcoin broke $16,000, and on November 17, Bitcoin broke $17,000.
但是，与币价涨势不同的是，比特币全网算力在过去一个月内呈总体稳定，略微下跌的态势。根据统计，全网算力从10月15的144.85EH/s微跌至11月15日的137.33EH/s，跌幅约为5.20%，但从总体上看，全网算力水平基本保持在125EH/s左右。从算力和币价的相对涨幅来看，最近一个月，比特币矿工的盈利预期较上半年有明显改善。
In contrast to currency price increases, however, Bitcoin’s full net capacity has been generally stable and slightly declining over the past month. According to statistics, the full net capacity fell slightly from 144.85 EH/s on October 15 to 137.33 EH/s on November 15, a decline of about 5.2%, but overall, the full net capacity level has remained roughly around 125 EH/s. In the last month, by contrast, Bitco's profits are expected to improve significantly compared to the first half of the year.
从链上交易的基本数据来看，过去一个月，比特币网络也处于活跃期。一方面，链上活跃地址数量持续增长，根据统计，10月15日链上活跃地址数量约为103.52万个，11月17日链上活跃地址数量约为114.27万个，整体涨幅约为10.38%。其中，11月9日比特币链上活跃地址数达到了118.89万个，创下2018年1月以来的新高，同时也创下比特币历史第7高日活。并且，从整体来看，最近一个月的链上活跃地址数量处于历史较高水平。
On the one hand, the number of active addresses on the chain has continued to grow. According to statistics, the number of active addresses on the chain on October 15 is about 103.52 million, and the number of active addresses on the chain on November 17 is about 1,4.27 million, an overall increase of about 10.38%. Of these, the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin chain on November 9 has reached 1,188.89 million, the highest since January 2018, and the seventh highest in Bitcoin history.
另一方面，比特币链上日交易次数也呈现轻微上涨趋势，从10月15日的33.77万次上涨至35.09万次，涨幅约为3.92%。
On the other hand, the number of daily transactions in the Bitcoin chain also showed a slight upward trend, rising from 3,377,000 on 15 October to 35,09 million, an increase of approximately 3.92 per cent.
从历史整体趋势来看，当前的日交易次数与2016年10月至2017年7月牛市前期的日交易次数较为接近，并且高于历史75分位（25.16万次）线，处于交易活跃期。
In terms of historical trends as a whole, the current number of daily transactions is closer to the number of transactions from October 2016 to July 2017 in the front of the cattle market and is above the historical 75-point (25.16 million) line and active in the trading period.
现货大单交易额超期货，期货持仓量温和上升
The volume of spot transactions exceeded futures and the volume of futures held in excess of futures increased at a moderate rate.
币价暴涨之下，市场交易量也在攀升。预计10月15日至11月16日期间，比特币大额现货交易量约为20.32亿美元，其中，大额买单约为9.33亿美元，大额卖单约为10.99亿美元。
Market transactions are also on the rise as currency prices soar. It is expected that between 15 October and 16 November, Bitcoins will have a large spot volume of approximately $2,032 million, of which large purchases will be about $933 million and large sales will be about $1,099 million.
从单日现货大单交易情况来看，币价突破15000美元关口后的11月6日，比特币现货市场大单交易明显放量，达到了约1.83亿美元。随着比特币价格的持续上涨，11月10日和 11月13日，现货市场大单成交量也都超过了1亿美元。从整体来看，过去一个月，比特币币价和现货成交量基本能形成互相支撑，每次放量都伴随着币价的进一步上涨。
As the price of bitcoin continued to rise, on 10 November and 13 November, the bulk of the stock on the spot also exceeded $100 million. Overall, during the past month, the amount of bitcoin and spot turnover was largely mutually supportive, with each release accompanied by a further increase in currency prices.
值得关注的是，过去一个月，现货大单成交量高于期货大单成交量，这与今年早些时候的情况相反。根据合约帝的不完全数据，预计在10月15日至11月16日期间，比特币期货大额成交量约为15.48亿美元，其中大额买单约为7.87亿美元，大额卖单约为7.61亿美元。
It is a matter of concern that, over the past month, the bulk of the stock on hand was higher than the bulk on futures, as was the case earlier this year. According to incomplete data from the contractor, it is expected that between 15 October and 16 November, the bulk on Bitcoin futures will be approximately $1,548 million, of which the bulk is about $787 million and the bulk is about $761 million.
从单日期货大单成交情况来看，多日交易量超过8000万美元，其中，11月10日期货大单总成交约9759万美元，是近一个月期货交易量最高的一天。从量价趋势来看，期货交易量与币价走势的对应性不如现货交易这么明显，但总体而言，期货市场交易放量比币价上涨来的更早。
According to the stocking of single-date large orders, multi-day transactions exceed $80 million, of which a total of approximately $9.759 million on November 10 is the highest volume of futures transactions in recent months. In terms of volume trends, futures transactions are less closely matched to current transactions, but, overall, futures market transactions have increased earlier than currency prices.
最近一个月，比特币主力期货市场的持仓金额也在温和上涨。截至11月15日，OKEx的合约持仓金额约为7.57亿美元，其次是Binance，约为6.77亿美元。BitMEX受到合规风险影响，其期货交易市场份额有所下降，截至11月15日，期货持仓金额仅4.16亿美元，低于其他四家交易所。
In the last month, the amount held in the Bitcoin main futures market has also risen mildly. As at 15 November, the contract held by OKEx was about $757 million, followed by Binance, about $677 million. BitMEX, affected by compliance risks, had a reduced market share in futures transactions, with futures held only $416 million, down from four other exchanges, as at 15 November.
从趋势来看，OKEx、Binance和Bybit都抓住了此次比特币币价上涨带来的市场机会，三家交易所最近一个月的期货持仓量分别上涨了21.51%、64.32%和45.45%。其中，Binance的比特币期货持仓量增幅显著，表现抢眼。另外，Huobi和BitMEX的期货持仓量则基本保持稳定，没有明显变化。
In terms of trends, OKEx, Binance and Bybit have seized on the market opportunities created by this price increase in bitcoin, with three exchanges increasing their future stock by 21.51 per cent, 64.32 per cent and 45.45 per cent, respectively, in the last month.
Binance和Huobi流出量多，Coinbase仍然最“吸金”
Binance and Huobi have more outflows, and Coinbase is still the most “drawn gold”
近期，国内外多家交易所都经历着合规风波，这为火热的市场蒙上了一层阴影，与此同时，投资者也更倾向于寻找更安全的交易市场，这为交易所格局的变化提供了可能和空间。
In the recent past, several domestic and international exchanges have experienced a wave of compliance, which cast a shadow over hot markets, while investors are more inclined to look for safer trading markets, providing possibilities and space for changes in exchange patterns.
根据Chain.info对过去一个月内各交易所钱包地址的追踪分析来看，除了OKEx仍然禁止提币以外，Binance和Huobi都有大量比特币流向了其他交易所，其中Binance流失了约6.17万枚比特币，Huobi流失了约4.95万枚比特币。另外，Kraken、Bitstamp、Bitfinex和Coinbase也有超过5000枚比特币流向了其他交易所。
According to Chain.info’s tracking analysis of the wallet addresses of the various exchanges over the past month, in addition to OKEx’s continued ban on the withdrawal of coins, Binance and Huobi had large amounts of bitcoins flowing to other exchanges, of which Binance lost about 6.17 million bitcoins and Huobi lost about 495 million bitcoins. In addition, Kraken, Bitstamp, Bitfinex and Coinbase had more than 5,000 bitcoons going to other exchanges.
从流入情况来看，Coinbase接收了大部分其他交易所流出的比特币，最近一个月的流入量达到了约6.48万枚比特币，其次是Binance，最近一个月其他交易所流入Binance的比特币总量达到了约4.58万枚。另外，Huobi也接收了其他交易所流出的约1.21万枚比特币，Kraken接收了其他交易所流出的约0.70万枚比特币。但是，尽管如此，就存量市场的流入和流出差额来看，Huobi和Binance依然“失守”了一部分市场。
Inflows indicate that Coinbase received bitcoins from most of the other exchanges, which reached about 648 million bitcoins in the last month, followed by Binance, where the total amount of bitcoins flowing from other exchanges to Binance in the last month was about 45.8 million. In addition, Huobi received about 12.1 million bitcoins from other exchanges, and Kraken received about 0.7 million bitcoins from other exchanges.
交易所之间的资金流向实际上不仅是用户用脚投票的结果，而且还是市场格局变化的信号。从最近一个月交易所之间的资金动向来看，有两种资金流向值得关注。第一种方向是从Binance到Coinbase，最近一个月，Binance向Coinbase累计大额转账次数191次，总金额达到了约4.55万枚，远超过其他交易所之间的资金流量。
The first direction is from Binance to Coinbase. In the last month, Binance made 191 cumulative large transfers to Coinbase, bringing the total to about 45.5 million, far exceeding the flow of funds between other exchanges.
根据PAData此前对交易所之间资金流向的分析来看，Binance今年流向Coinbase的大额资金有所增加，今年4月，从Binance转至Coinbase的大额交易同样是所有交易所之间最多的，累计次数达到了178次，累计金额达到了3.65万BTC，而2019年，Binance流出的大额资金主要流入了Huobi和OKEx。
According to PAData's previous analysis of inter-exchange flows, Binance's large financial flows to Coinbase have increased this year. In April this year, the largest transfers from Binance to Coinbase were also the largest among all exchanges, with a cumulative total of 178 transactions and a cumulative amount of 36.5 million BTC, while in 2019 the bulk of Binance's outflows went mainly to Huobi and OKEx.
另外一个值得关注的资金流向是从Huobi流向Binance。根据统计，最近一个月从Huobi转至Binance的大额交易共有372次，累计金额达到约3.36万枚比特币，已经占到去年Huobi转至Binance的资金总额的36.37%。Huobi大额流出至Binance的资金在今年已展现出加速倾向。另外，最近一个月Huobi流向Coinbase的资金也不少，累计大额转账金额达到了9046枚BTC。
Another source of concern is the flow of funds from Huobi to Binance. According to statistics, there have been 372 major transfers from Huobi to Binance in the last month, amounting to about 3.36 million bitcoins, accounting for 36.37% of the total transfers from Huobi to Binance last year.
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