导语 ： 7月30日，备受关注的“USDT听证会”落下帷幕。针对Bitfinex、Tether以及母公司iFinex是否非法发行USDT，USDT方面与纽约检方展开激烈辩论。Bitfinex母公司iFinex的律师表示，纽约检方（NYAG）没有标的物管辖权，因为USDT既不是证券也不是大宗商品，更不是货币，因此不能按照美国纽约州商业法（马丁法案）进行监管。那么，USDT到底是什么？以及它未来会何去何从呢？
0 1 USDT的资本在哪里
Where's the capital of 1 USDT?
作为连接法币和加密货币的重要桥梁，USDT自诞生就伴随着一句承诺：严格遵守1：1的保证金制度，即每发行1枚USDT代币，其账户就要增加1美元的资金储备。USDT可随时兑换美元，并且可以轻松地用USDT交易其他加密货币，这比通过银行或者其他资产类别兑换更快、更便宜。这种锚定美元的发行机制奠定了USDT在数字货币领域的头牌地位。这句承诺形成了USDT最普遍的共识，USDT不仅成为了数字货币波动下的避险工具，也奠定了结算币的老大地位，并在各交易所普遍形成了网络效应。
As an important bridge linking French and encrypted currencies, the USDT has since its birth been accompanied by a commitment: to adhere strictly to the 1:1 bond system, whereby every USDT coin is issued with an increase in its financial reserve of $1. The USDT is ready to convert to the United States dollar and can easily be traded in other encrypted currencies with USDT, faster and cheaper than through banks or other asset classes. This anchored-dollar distribution mechanism has created the USDT’s leading position in the digital currency field.
但是，USDT发行方Tether的美元储备金和储备银行至今还是一个疑问。要知道USDT的发行过程实际由印钞/铸造 (Authorized) 和发行/派发 (Issue) 两个步骤组成，印钞即在链上一次性把一笔USDT打入至 Tether 基金会地址 (Tether Treasury)；而发行则是基金会地址将USDT转入至买家或交易所地址中。而已经进入基金会地址但并未转出至买家地址的部分为未发行 (Authorized but not issued) 部分，这部分并未实际流通。
However, the USDT issuer, Tether’s dollar reserve and reserve bank, is still a question. It is known that the USDT distribution process actually consists of two steps, namely, printing banknotes (Authorized) and issuing/distribution (Issue), in which a single amount of USDT is added to the chain to the Tether Foundation address (Teth Treasury); while the distribution is that the Foundation’s address is transferred to the buyer’s or exchange address. The portion that has entered the Foundation’s address but has not been transferred to the buyer’s address is the unpublished (Authorized but unissued) part, which is not actually in circulation.
除此之外，USDT的发行公司Tether是由注册地为马恩岛和香港的公司Realcoin改名而来，并不在美国金融监管体系之内，作为一个不受政府监管的中心化稳定币，其中存在的风险是不言而喻的。
In addition to this, the risk that USDT's issuer, Tether, was renamed Realcoin, a company registered for the Isle of Man and Hong Kong, is not part of the United States financial regulatory system, as a centralized and stable currency not regulated by the Government, is self-evident.
其中，2018年10月，USDT流通市值27亿美元。当时媒体报道USDT抵押资产不透明，流通市值大于实际资产储备。加上USDT的托管银行涉嫌资不抵债等一系列因素影响，被各路媒体的集体抨击，导致USDT价格就出现闪崩，短时跌幅达到11%。另外，2019年7月14日8:00左右，Tether Treasury在1小时内两次增发共计50.5亿USDT，并两次销毁共计50亿USDT，且都是在波场链上。
The USDT mortgaged assets were not transparent at that time, and the market value in circulation was greater than the actual asset reserve. Added to a series of factors, such as the suspicion that the USDT’s hosting bank was insolvent, which was collectively criticized by the media, led to a collapse in the USDT price, with a short drop of 11%.
0 2 共识才是USDT的基础
Consensus is the foundation of the USDT.
货币的基础是信任，信任的基础是共识。
The currency is based on trust, which is based on consensus.
从实物货币到金属货币，再到后来的纸币，以及正在蓬勃发展的数字货币，任何货币都离不开一定的等价物来作为货币发行的基础，以此来构建货币本身的价值稳定。从贵金属到石油，再到国家背书，一种货币的应用范围往往取决于其背后达成的共识范围，罗马金币、英镑、美元以及人民币，能被广泛地应用，离不开其背后国家影响力的辐射。
From the physical to the metal currency, to the later paper currency, and to the digital currency that is flourishing, no currency can be built on the value stability of the currency itself by using a certain equivalent as the basis for its issuance. From precious metals to oil, to national endorsements, the application of a currency often depends on the scope of the consensus behind it, and Roman gold, pound sterling, dollar, and renminbi can be widely applied without the radiation of the influence of the country behind it.
同样，在数字货币市场，USDT的流通和价值认可真正来源是“共识”，而非狭隘的信任。在用USDT的投资者，是相信在各大交易平台放着的这些USDT可以通过币币交易换成比特币，并且可以通过OTC交易成为法定货币。这些年，也正是在高起伏的数字货币市场，USDT践行着“1枚USDT代币等于1美元”的承诺，从而赢得了越来越多的共识，并且已经成为占据市场份额最大、交易平台支持度最高的的稳定币。
Similarly, in the digital money market, the real source of circulation and value recognition for USDT is “consensus,” not narrow trust. Investors using USDT are convinced that these USDTs, which are held in major trading platforms, can be exchanged for bitcoins and become legal currency through OTC transactions.
但是，因USDT不受监管、随意增发、Tether 账户资金数量不足，银行账户信息不公开，从未公布过可信审计报告来证明它拥有相应的美元储备，一些核心的信息不愿对外披露等而备受质疑，这也在一定程度上逐步透支人们对于USDT的共识。
However, the unsupervised and randomly increased availability of USDT, the insufficient volume of funds in the Tether account, the lack of disclosure of bank account information, the fact that no credible audit report was ever published to demonstrate that it had a corresponding dollar reserve and that some core information was reluctant to be disclosed to the outside world were also being questioned, and to some extent, there was a gradual build-up of consensus on USDT.
而且，针对此次纽约检方对Bitfinex、Tether以及母公司iFinex存在无照经营等4项重大违规，同时涉嫌挪用8.5亿美元保证金的指控，USDT辩护律师仅仅给出了“因为USDT既不是证券也不是大宗商品，没有标的物管辖权”以及“Tether已经完全屏蔽纽约用户”的辩护。这显然没有对一些根本性的问题作出令人信服的回答，虽然下一次的听证会延迟到3个月后，但是USDT至少已经动摇了公众的“共识”，这对于USDT而言也必将是一个重大的危机。
Moreover, in response to this New York prosecution's allegations of four major irregularities, including the unlicensed operation of Bitfinex, Tether, and the parent company iFinex, and the alleged misappropriation of the $850 million bond, the USDT defence counsel simply gave the defence “because the USDT is neither a security nor a commodity, and there is no subject matter jurisdiction” and “Teth has completely blocked New York users.” This clearly does not provide a convincing answer to some of the fundamental questions, although the next hearing was delayed by three months, the USDT has at least shaken the public's “consensus”, which is also a major crisis for the USDT.
0 3 USDT将会面临的挑战
The challenge for the 0-3 USDT
在2018年以前，广为人知的稳定币只有USDT，在很长一段时间内其市值几乎就等于稳定币的总市值。如今仅与USDT正面竞争的美元稳定币就有TUSD、USDC、PAX、GUSD等。这些新兴稳定币的发展已经促成了新的稳定币格局，并且不断侵蚀USDT的市场份额。
By 2018, only USDT was known to be stable, and over a long period of time its market value was almost equal to the total market value of a stable currency. Today, TUSD, USDC, PAX, GUSD, etc. are the stable dollar that competes positively with USDT alone.
除了传统的稳定币的竞争，2019年以来，各大交易所也都在极力推出自己的平台币，一时间引发了市场的极大热情。就各个交易所自身而言，发行平台币无疑有着极大的利益诉求，一方面能获取大量的法币资金存量，另一方面对用户能形成更大的粘性。当然，平台币的最大局限在于难以跨平台使用，难以形成较大的规模，但是对于以USDT为代表的稳定币能形成一定的冲击。
In addition to traditional currency-stabilizing competition, major exchanges have been pushing for their own platform money since 2019, triggering a huge amount of enthusiasm in the market at a time. For each exchange, there is no doubt that there is a great deal of interest in having access to a large stock of French currency funds, on the one hand, and, on the other, more sticky to users.
另外就是2019年以来，不少的金融与科技巨头也纷纷宣布布局区块链领域，无论是资金规模还是应用场景，一旦成功落地应用，对现有稳定币都将会是毁灭性的打击。其中，摩根的JPM Coin凭借其在全球庞大的金融网络，能实现跨境清算结算的极大颠覆，甚至可以作为更多资产的定价标的，一旦延伸到数字领域，无疑比现有的稳定币具备更大的权威性，能形成更大的“共识”范围；另外就是Facebook计划推出的Libra，凭借着二十多亿人、100多个国家的规模，Libra将会真正实现更加便捷的金融服务，加上其丰富的应用场景，可以极大推动数字世界与现实世界的联通，这比现有稳定币的应用场景要丰富很多，其达成的“共识”范围也是现有稳定币所远不能及的。
In addition, since 2019, a number of financial and technological giants have announced a “consensus” in the area of layout, whether financial scale or application, which, when successfully applied, would be a devastating blow to the existing stable currency. With its vast global financial network, Morgan's JPM Coin can achieve a significant disruption in the settlement of cross-border settlements, even as a price mark for more assets. Once extended to the digital field, it will undoubtedly be more authoritative than the existing stable currency, creating a greater “consensus” than the existing one; and a “consensus” in the context of Facebook, with more than two billion people and more than 100 countries on a scale, Libra will truly achieve faster financial services and, with its rich application landscape, can greatly contribute to linking the digital world to the real world, which is much richer than the current stable currency application scene, which is far beyond the reach of the existing stable currency.
所以，留给USDT的时间并不多，USDT剩下的“共识”也并不多。
So, there is not much time left for USDT, and there is not much “consensus” left by USDT.
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