粗略估计，这些赌约的总金额近1000万美金。
A rough estimate of xff0c; the total amount of these bets is nearly $10 million.
本文旨在传递更多市场信息，不构成任何投资建议。
This paper is intended to convey more market information xff0c; it does not constitute any investment proposal.
文?| 文学
出品 | 火星财经APP（ID：hxcj24h） > Mars Finances APP（ ID： hxcj24h） 2013年，董明珠和雷军以5年后营业额打赌10个亿，最终格力胜出。 2013 xff0c; 1 billion xff0c bet by Dong Myeong Joo and the Lui army after 5 years; finally the power wins. 今年8月28日，董明珠喊话雷军：10亿不要了，还想再赌5年。雷军回应称：“我觉得可以试一下。” On August 28th this year, Dong Ming Joo shouted at the Lui army #xff1a; 1 billion don't want #xff0c; want to gamble for another five years. The Lui army responded by calling #xff1a; "I think we can try." 双方你来我往，再次开启下一个5年赌约；外界作壁上观，共同期待这一次鹿死谁手。 You come to me to #xff0c; to open the next five-year bet #xff1b; to watch the outside world #xff0c; and to look forward to this deer death. 事实上，加密世界也不乏有趣的赌约：赌期从1天到5年不等；赌注不仅有法币、T恤衫，还有BTC、ETH等数字货币，最高可达572万美元；有的由双方共同发起，有的则为单方面提出。 In fact, xff0c; the encrypt world has an interesting bet xff1a; the period of bets varies from one day to five years xff1b; the bets are not only in French, T-shirts xff0c; there are digital currencies such as BTC, ETH xff0c; up to $5.72 million xff1b; some are co-sponsored by both sides xff0c; others are presented unilaterally. 有意思的是，这些赌约中多次出现比特币耶稣Roger Ver，足见其争强好胜的性格。另外，巴菲特、李启威、赵长鹏、孙宇晨等知名人士也主动或被动牵涉其中。火星财经APP（ID：hxcj24h）根据公开报道梳理了币圈10大赌约。 Interestingly, xff0c; several of these bets appear in Bitcoin's Jesus Roger Ver& #xff0c; they have a strong and winning character. Also xff0c; prominent figures such as Buffett, Li Qiwei, Zhao Chang-pyung, Sun Woo-jin are actively or passively involved. Mars Finance & APP（ ID： 澳大利亚赌徒叫板巴菲特 Australian gambler named Panbafet ☆赌期：5年 xff1a; 5 years ☆赌注：850万澳元（约合572万美元） bets xff1a;$8.5 million xff08; approximately $5.72 million xff09; ☆参与者：巴菲特，澳大利亚加密货币玩家（该玩家单方面发起） 去年8月，博彩公司William Hill的首席执行官Tom Waterhouse发布推特称，一匿名数字货币行家豪掷850万澳元赌注，押宝2023年时比特币单价会超过巴菲特掌管的投资公司Berkshire Hathaway的股票价格。 Last August xff0c; Tom Waterhouse, CEO of William Hill, tweeting & #xff0c; $8.5 million bets by an anonymous digital banker & #xff0c; and by 2023, Bitcoin would have exceeded the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway, a Buffett-run investment company. 根据Tom Waterhouse的说法，这位神秘赌徒正在找一名中间人来打赌，赔率为1/141。 According to Tom Waterhouse & #xff0c; the mysterious gambler is looking for an intermediary to bet #xff0c; the compensation rate is 1/141. 按照当前的市场汇率计算，850万澳元约合572万美元。如果预言成真，这场赌局的奖金高达8亿美元。 xff0c; $8.5 million for approximately $5.72 million at the current market exchange rate. If the prophecy comes true xff0c; the stakes are $800 million. 目前Berkshire Hathaway股价为30万美元，是比特币现价的31倍。 The current share price of Berkshire Hathaway is $300,000 xff0c; it is 31 times the current price of Bitcoin. “末日博士”PK亿万富翁 ☆赌期：7个月 xff1a; 7 months ☆赌注：1件T恤衫 bets xff1a; 1 T-shirt ☆参与者：“末日博士”鲁比尼、亿万富翁迈克尔·诺沃格拉茨 据美国财经媒体CNBC报道，今年5月，在拉斯维加斯举办的SALT 2019大会上，美国金融业两位著名人物围绕加密货币的未来展开辩论，最后押注于一件T恤衫。 According to the U.S. financial media CNBC, xff0c; xff0c in May of this year; xff0c at the SALT 2019 Congress in Las Vegas; two prominent figures in the U.S. financial industry debating the future of encrypted money xff0c; and finally bet on a T-shirt. 这场辩论的一方是被称为“末日博士”的纽约大学经济学教授鲁比尼，他认为比特币及其同类不应被称为“加密货币”。另一位是美国传奇基金经理、亿万富翁迈克尔·诺沃格拉茨，他认为鲁比尼低估了该行业的未来，并提出要跟后者打一个赌。 One side of the debate was Rubini #xff0c, a professor of economics at New York University known as Dr. Apocalypse; he argued that Bitcoin and his kind should not be called “encrypted currency”; the other was Michael Novograds #xff0c, manager of the American legend fund; he argued that Rubini underestimated the future of the industry xff0c; and offered to gamble with the latter. 诺沃格拉茨表示：“比特币现在是6000美元。如果圣诞节超过6000美元，你就得穿上一件T恤，上面写着‘我爱比特币’。如果没有，那我就穿上一件T恤，上面写着‘鲁比尼是对的’。” Novograds says xff1a; "Bitco is now $6,000. If Christmas is over $6,000 xff0c; you have to wear a T-shirt xff0c; it says "I love bitcoin"; if xff0c; if I don't xff0c; then I'm wearing a T-shirt xff0c; it says "Lubini is right." 鲁比尼没有直接回应这一挑战，但他曾表示不在乎比特币的命运。 Rubini did not respond directly to this challenge #xff0c; but he said he did not care about the fate of Bitcoin. 据火星财经APP（ID：hxcj24h）了解，鲁比尼曾多次抨击加密货币，甚至因此被CoinDesk列为十大加密影响者之一。他为此在推文中称，CoinDesk承认他是加密和区块链的主要批评者，是这个领域的顶级影响者。 According to 今年8月比特币价格大猜想 ☆赌期：1个月内 xff1a; 1 month ☆赌注：10个比特币 bets #xff1a; 10 bitcoins ☆参与者：币安创始人赵长鹏，某推特用户（该用户单方面发起） 今年8月6日，币安创始人赵长鹏在推特上表示，现在做空比特币不是一个好主意。 On 6 August this year, #xff0c; #xff0c on Twitter, the founder of the currency, Zhao Chang Peng; it is not a good idea to be empty bitcoin now. 一位疑似加密货币巨鲸的用户却不认同。他在推特中回复称，如果到本月底价格不跌破8000美元，他会给赵长鹏转10个比特币。 A user of an encoded-currency giant doesn’t agree. On Twitter, he replied xff0c; if the price does not fall by $8,000 xff0c by the end of this month; he will transfer 10 bitcoins to Zhao Changjun. 该用户同时对比特币在8月的走势做出了分析： The user also performed an analysis of the position of the Bitcoin in August #xff1a; 1.比特币跌至7500美元到8000美元。 1. Bitcoin dropped to between $7,500 and $8,000. 2.我们会在8月中旬再次尝试触及9000美元的位置。 We will try again in mid-August to reach $9,000. 3.最后跌至黄线位置。（这里可以买入） 3. Last drop to yellow line position. & #xff08; here can be purchased & #xff09; 不过，截至发稿，BTC依旧维持在9500美元上方，这位推特用户显然已经输掉了这场赌约。 However, xff0c; as of the release xff0c; BTC remains above $9,500 xff0c; the Twitter user apparently has lost the bet. ☆赌期：4年 xff1a; 4 years ☆赌注：810.8个ETH & bets > #xff1a; 810.8 ETH & 69.74个BTC 69.74 BTC ☆参与者：以太坊联合创始人Joseph Lubin，比特币核心开发者Jimmy song 今年5月，据CoinDesk报道，在共识会议期间，以太坊联合创始人Joseph Lubin与比特币核心开发者Jimmy song达成对赌，就以太坊的未来下注：如果以太坊dApp四年后做的很成功，则Song付给Lubin 810.8个ETH，否则Lubin要付给Song 69.74个BTC。 xff0c in May; xff0c according to CoinDesk; xff0c during the Consensus Conference; xff0c; Joseph Lubin, co-founder of the Tai shop, and Jimmy #xff0c, the Bitcoin core developer, made a bet xff0c; bet xff1a on the future of Taipan; xff0c, if it was successful after four years, xff0c; Long pay Lubin 810.8 ETHxff0c; otherwise Lubin will pay Song 69.74 BTC. 判断dApp成功与否的标准是：2023年5月23日前，以太坊拥有5个日活达1万以上并且连续6个月月活达10万的dApp。 The criteria for judging the success of dApp are xff1a; xff0c prior to 23 May 2023; and Etheria has 5 dApps that live for more than 10,000 days and 100,000 for six months in a row. 值得注意的是，波场创始人孙宇晨还趁机蹭了一波热度。他在推特上表示，愿意与Joseph Lubin也做一个对赌，赌注是100万美金等值的TRX或者ETH，赌约是2019年末波场dApp的活跃用户多于以太坊dApp的活跃用户。 It is worth noting that xff0c; Sun Woo, the founder of the waves, took the opportunity to rub a wave of heat. On Twitter, he said xff0c; he was willing to bet against Joseph Lubin xff0c; the bet was TRX or ETHxff0c, which was the equivalent of $1 million; and the bet was about more active users of dapp in the late 2019s than dapp in the Tails. 莱特币闪电网络之争 The Lightning Network at Lettcoon ☆赌期：18个月 xff1a; 18 months ☆赌注：失败方身穿对方阵营的T恤 bet #xff1a; loser wears T-shirts from each other's camp. ☆参与者：莱特币创始人李启威，比特币耶稣Roger Ver 2018年9月，莱特币创始人李启威和BCH支持者Roger Ver（比特币耶稣）立下赌约：如果在18个月内，至少有1000家商户支持莱特币闪电网络，Roger Ver会穿莱特币闪电网络的T恤，否则李启威就要穿BCH的T恤。 September 2018 xff0c; Li Qiwei, founder of Letco and BCH supporter Roger Ver& #xff08; Bitcoin Jesus & #xff09; bet xff1a; if xff0c within 18 months; if at least 1,000 businesses support the Lightning Network xff0c; Roger Ver will wear the T-shirt xff0c of the Lightcoin Flash Network; otherwise Li Qiwei will wear the BCH T-shirt. 除穿T恤外，败方还需向所有人解释其为何犯错。 In addition to wearing a T-shirt, #xff0c; the losing party also needs to explain to everyone why it made a mistake. 答案很快在今年2月揭晓。随着全球最大的加密数字货币支付网关之一Coingate启用莱特币闪电网络，李启威大获全胜，因为仅Coingate包含的商户数量就超过4500家。 The answer will soon come to light in February of this year. With Coingate, one of the world’s largest encrypted digital money payment gateways, the Lightning Network #xff0c was launched; Lee Qingwei won a great victory #xff0c; because the number of businesses included in Coingate alone was more than 4,500. 不过在随后的报道中，并未出现Roger Ver身穿莱特币闪电网络T恤的消息，这也为赌约本身增加了一丝悬念。 In subsequent reports, however, xff0c; there was no news of Roger Ver wearing a Lightning T-shirt from the Lettco network xff0c; this also added a glimmer of suspense to the bet itself. 波场与搜狗市值孰高孰低 the market value of and the search of dogs ☆赌期：3年 xff1a; 3 years ☆赌注：100个BTC bets >xff1a; 100 BTCs ☆参与者：波场创始人孙宇晨、搜狗CEO王小川（孙宇晨单方面发起） 今年2月，孙宇晨在朋友圈写道：“新年与朋友翻起一张照片，2014年11月24日，我和王小川录制节目。我永远也忘不了他这打量骗子的眼神,他说我是骗子，肯定会失败，和我录节目是耻辱，最后甚至没法录下去。后来不到三年我公司就超过搜狗市值。人生中，瞧不起你的人对你的鞭策更加刻骨铭心。” This February #xff0c; Sun Woo morning wrote in his circle of friends & #xff1a; “The New Year is a photo with friends & #xff0c; November 24, 2014 & #xff0c; and I'm recording with Wang Xiaochuan. I will never forget his look at liars, who say I'm a liar #xff0c; I'm bound to fail #xff0c; I'm going to record a show that's a shame #xff0c; and I can't even record it. After three years, my company outperformed the market value of dog searches. 王小川在6月更新微博：“什么叫成功？什么叫骗子？每个人有自己的定义。有的人以为是身价，有的人以为是市值。放到历史长河里，云淡风轻。用极致理性追求真理的科学家，用极致感性追求美的艺术家，以及用大爱对世界或民族做出的贡献的英雄，才能永垂不朽。” Wang Xiaochuan updated the microblogging #xff1a in June; “What's a success #xff1f; What's a liar #xff1f; everyone has his own definition. Some think it's price #xff0c; others think it's market value. Put it in history #xff0c; cloudy wind is light. #xff0c, a scientist who pursues the truth with great rationality; #xff0c, an artist who pursues beauty with great emotion #xff0c; and #xff0c, a hero who contributes to the world or nation with great love; so that it will last forever.” 孙宇晨随即转发并评论：“其实对于往事，我也不过当做一种鞭策，早已进入了我没有敌人的状态。不过就正如科学家得有科学发现，艺术家得有作品，创业者产品与其市值也是对创业者的衡量。我们不如放下成见，再来一场三年之约，看看2022年6月之时，波场与搜狗市值孰高孰低？赌注一百个比特币。” Sun Woo immediately relayed and commented on xff1a; “It's true for the past xff0c; I'm nothing more than a whip xff0c; I'm already in a state where I don't have an enemy. But just as scientists have a scientific discovery xff0c; artists have a work xff0c; the entrepreneur's product is a measure of the entrepreneur's market value. Let's put down our stereotypes xff0c; another three-year approximation xff0c; look at June 2022 xff0c; how low xff1f; bet 100 bitcoins.” 截至发稿，波场市值10.42亿美元，搜狗市值17.18亿美元。 As of issuance xff0c; market value of the wavefield: $1,042 million xff0c; market value of dog search: $1,718 million. 1美分BTC交易手续费 ☆赌期：一天之内 xff1a; within one day ☆赌注：1万美元 bets >xff1a; $10,000 ☆参与者：比特币耶稣Roger Ver，前摩根大通交易员Tone Vays 今年5月，在马耳他AI&区块链峰会上，比特币耶稣Roger Ver与前摩根大通交易员Tone Vays围绕BTC和BCH交易手续费展开辩论。 This May xff0c; xff0c at the AI& block chain summit in Malta; The Jesus Roger Ver in Bitcoin and the former Morgan Chase dealer Tone Vays debated the BTC and BCH transaction fees. Roger Ver认为BTC当前的平均交易费用为3美元，而BCH低于1美分，BCH交易优势巨大。Tone Vays却指出，自己每天都在使用比特币，经常只需支付5美分即可发送交易。 Roger Ver considers BTC’s current average transaction cost to be US$ 3 xff0c; BCH is less than 1 cent xff0c; BCH trade has a huge advantage. Tone Vays points out xff0c; he himself uses Bitcoin xff0c every day; often he can send the transaction only five cents. Roger Ver于是单方面提出了一个赌局：押注1万美元，赌Vays无法在一天之内将价值5美元的BTC交易以1美分的交易费用发送给他。 Roger Ver unilaterally proposed a game & #xff1a; bet US$10,000 & #xff0c; and bet that Vays would not be able to send the BTC transaction worth US$5 to him within a day for one cent of the transaction cost. Vays随后在推特上提供相关截图，证明已按Ver的要求完成交易。 Vays then provided a relevant screenshot on Twitter @#xff0c, confirming that the transaction had been completed as required by Ver. BCH支持者显然不会承认这个事实。在Vays的推特下方，有网友爆料此次交易由SlushPool矿池作弊实现，使其成为一个高级优先级的交易。 BCH supporters will obviously not admit the fact. Below Vays' Twitter & #xff0c; there are cyber-friends who say the deal was cheated by the SlushPool pond to #xff0c; it became a high-priority deal. 澳本聪能否移动属于中本聪的比特币 ☆赌期：1年 xff1a; 1 year ☆赌注：1万美金 bet #xff1a; $10,000 ☆参与者：英国加密节目主持人Peter McCormack、BSV信徒（McCormack单方面发起） 今年8月28日，英国加密节目主持人Peter McCormack发推称，愿意与任何一个相信澳本聪持有中本聪比特币的BSV信徒打赌，赌注为1万美元，赌约为澳本聪在一年之内无法移动属于中本聪的比特币。 xff0c of 28 August this year; Peter McCormack, a British encryption anchor, presumably xff0c; bets on #xff0c with any BSV believer who believes that Austen has Bintco in it; bets of $10,000 xff0c; and bets that Austen will not be able to move bitcoins belonging to middle-sight within a year. McCormack还表示愿意出2:1的赔率，即对赌者仅需拿出5000美元即可参加赌约。 McCormack also offered a rate of 2:1 xff0c; i.e. only $5,000 is required for gamblers to participate. 据火星财经APP（ID：hxcj24h）了解，澳本聪曾屡次声称自己就是中本聪，但一直拿不出强有力的证据，McCormack为此多次在推特中称其为“骗子”。 According to Mars finance, APP（ ID： 今年4月，McCormack收到澳本聪的诉讼信，指责McCormack对其声誉造成“严重伤害”。 In April this year, #xff0c; McCormack received a letter of action from Austen and #xff0c accusing McCormack of “serious damage” to his reputation. 8月22日，澳本聪将比特币白皮书《比特币：点对点的电子现金系统》上传至学术研究资料库SSRN。当被问及此举做法的原因，澳本聪回应称：“我已公开承认我是中本聪，是时候认证我的发明了。” August 22nd & #xff0c; ABC uploads the Bitcoin White Paper, Bitcoin & #xff1a; Point-to-Point Electronic Cash System, to the academic research library SSRN. When asked about the reasons for this approach & #xff0c; ABC responds & #xff1a; “I have publicly acknowledged that I am a middle-class #xff0c; it is time to authenticate my invention.” 1年后“3点钟”社群还有多少人玩区块链 How many people in the "3 o'clock" community play block chains after 1 year
☆赌期：1年 xff1a; 1 year ☆赌注：100个比特币 bets #xff1a; 100 bitcoins ☆参与者：了得资本创始人易理华、DGroup创始人赵东（易理华单方面发起，赵东未同意） 去年2月，嘉楠耘智联席董事长孔剑平在“3点钟无眠区块链”分享了自己对区块链行业的看法，赵东表示赞同：“不要看很多人看现在热闹冲进来，大部分人肯定过不久就都跑了，是经不住熊市考验的，岁寒知松柏。不客气说一声，一年后这群还在玩比特币、区块链的，可能不会超过一百人。” Last February xff0c; Kanan Jianjin co-head Koo-Ping shared his views on the block chain industry in the "3 o'clock block chain" xff0c; Zhao Dong agreed xff1a; “Don't look at a lot of people now rushing in xff0c; most people must have run away soon xff0c; it's xff0c; it's xff0c; it's a cold pine. 易理华不以为然：“这个我不同意！” Ilix doesn't think so; “I disagree with this” 赵东随即回应：“那我们走着看。我觉得喧嚣不会太久了，诸位都是来割韭菜的，不是来接盘的。” Zhao Tung responded to #xff1a; "Well, let's go and see. I don't think it's going to be too long; you're all #xff0c who's here to cut herbs, not to pick up the dishes." 易理华由此发起赌约：“我愿意跟赵东赌100个比特币。” "I'm willing to bet Jo Dong 100 bits." 赵东并未同意：“我们现在要做的是，耐心做事，等来年春天（区块链行业）。我不和你赌，如果你是对的我更高兴。如果我是对的，我能确保自己4年后还在这个行业，但是大部分人不会了。” Zhao Dong did not agree with xff1a; “What we have to do now is xff0c; patiently do xff0c; wait for the spring of next year xff08; block chain industry xff09; I don't gamble with you xff0c; I'm happier if you're right. If I'm right xff0c; I can make sure I'm still in this business xff0c; but most people don't." 不可否认，受2018年币市寒冬影响，部分人已经离场，部分人仍在坚守，具体数据虽无从考据，但整个行业向前发展是大多数人的共识。 Undeniably xff0c; affected by the cold winter of the currency in 2018 xff0c; some have left xff0c; some are still holding xff0c; specific data are not available xff0c; but the movement of the industry as a whole is the consensus of the majority. 被“短命”的比特币现金 by short-lived bitcoin cash ☆赌期：2年 xff1a; 2 years ☆赌注：100万美金 bets #xff1a; $1 million ☆参与者：比特币耶稣Roger Ver、鱼池联合创始人王淳（Roger Ver单方面发起） 2017年，鱼池联合创始人王淳公开表示，比特币现金（BCH）是“短命”的：“比特币现金将很快就会被放弃，最迟到十一月份，另一个硬分叉发生后。” xff0c in 2017; Wang Jun, the co-founder of the fish pool, publicly stated xff0c; Bitcoin cash xff08; BCH） xff1a, a “short life”; “bitcoin cash will soon be abandoned xff0c; xff0c by November at the latest; and after another hard fork.” 这引起了比特币耶稣Roger Ver的不满，于是对王淳隔空喊话：“你认为比特币现金是短命的，那它能持续多久呢？你敢不敢和我打赌？我愿意拿出一百万给你赌，时间就以两年为限，以此来看比特币现金是否真的是短命的。” This caused the displeasure of Bitcoin Jesus Roger Ver xff0c; so he shouted xff1a; “You think Bitcoin's cash is short-lived xff0c; how long it lasts xff1f; you dare to bet me xff1f; I am willing to bet you a million xff0c; the time limit is two years xff0c; and to see if Bitcoin's cash is really short-lived.” 如今两年期限已过，BCH不仅没被放弃，还高居加密货币排行榜第四，王淳显然已经输了。不过从过程来看，BCH的发展并不顺利，社区一度分裂，并最终演化成算力大战。 Now that the two-year limit has passed xff0c; BCH has not only not been abandoned xff0c; it is also in the fourth xff0c ranking of encrypted currency; Wang Sun has clearly lost. But in the course of the process, BCH has not developed well xff0c; the community was once divided xff0c; and eventually evolved into a big battle of calculating power. 互动时刻： interactive momentsxff1a; 和未来赌一次，你认为比特币价格最高可以涨到多少？欢迎小伙伴在下方留言~ and a future bet on xff0c; how much do you think bitcoin prices can go up to xff1f; welcome little partner to leave a message below 
以太坊dApp前途几何
?本文仅代表作者观点，不代表火星财经官方立场。
. This paper only represents the author's view xff0c; it does not represent the official position of Mars finance.?添加微信befabing，加入火星财经读者交流群，让我们产生更有价值的互动和连接。? Add micro-letterbefabing， join the Mars financial and economic audience #xff0c; let us generate more valuable interaction and connectivity.
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