受中央关于区块链的讲话精神，以及比特币第三次减半预期，区块链领域的投资品种从周六凌晨开始引爆市场。在美股上市的中国区块链概念股迅雷，一夜实现暴涨107%，比特币在短短12个小时内一度暴涨40%，价格突破1万美元大关，比特币市值维持在1.2万亿人民币附近，占全球数字货币总市值比例为63.2%。
Thanks to the central spirit of the speech on the block chain and the expectation of the third halving of Bitcoin, the variety of investments in the block chain started to blow the market in the early hours of Saturday. China’s block chain concept, which was listed in the United States stock market, rose significantly by 107% overnight, with Bitcoin rising by 40% in just 12 hours at a price of over $10,000, and kept its market value close to 1.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 63.2% of the total value of the global digital currency.
一种普遍的看法是，习近平主席关于区块链的讲话精神是全球迄今为止看到的对区块链技术的最高级别认可。与此同时，随着各地学习落实中央精神，可以预计区块链新闻将会持续刷屏。
There is a general view that President Xi’s message on the block chain is one of the highest-level endorsements of block chain technology that the world has seen so far. At the same time, with local learning to implement the central spirit, it can be expected that block chain news will continue to be painted.
考虑到比特币第一次减半引发价格上涨了80倍，第二次比特币减半引发上涨超过30倍，第三次比特币减半预计将发生在2020年5月的某个时间，考虑到价格基数越高，上涨所需要的资金量难度越大，在比特币已经1万美元的背景下，第三次减半是否能再一次引发暴涨，也成为一个不小的疑问。
Considering that the first halving of bitcoin triggered an 80-fold increase in prices, the second halving of bitcoin triggered a more than 30-fold increase, the third halving of bitcoin is expected to take place some time in May 2020, and given that the higher the price base, the more difficult it will be to finance the increase, the third halving of the price of bitcoin, against a background of $10,000 already, is also a serious question as to whether it could trigger another surge.
全球最高规格支持区块链发展
人民日报10月26日头版头条报道了习近平关于区块链的讲话，标题为《主持中央政治局第十八次集体学习 习近平：把区块链作为核心技术自主创新重要突破口》，与此同时央视新闻联播也对此次讲话进行重点报道。习近平主持会议以及中共中央政治局集体学习，其规格之高突显了中央对区块链的重视程度，随着各地学习落实中央精神，可以预计区块链新闻将会持续刷屏。
Xi Jinping’s speech on the block chain, entitled “Sitting the 18th session of the Central Political Bureau Group Learning Xi Jinping: Using the block chain as an important breakthrough in core technological autonomy and innovation”, was featured on the front page of the People’s Daily on October 26th, while focusing on the news broadcast. Xi’s conduct of the meeting and the collective learning of the Central Bureau of Political Affairs of the Central Communist Party highlighted the central importance of the block chain, which can be expected to continue to be painted as a result of local learning.
根据报道，习近平主席强调，要强化基础研究，提升原始创新能力，努力让我国在区块链这个新兴领域走在理论最前沿、占据创新制高点、取得产业新优势。要推动协同攻关，加快推进核心技术突破，为区块链应用发展提供安全可控的技术支撑。要加强区块链标准化研究，提升国际话语权和规则制定权。要加快产业发展，发挥好市场优势，进一步打通创新链、应用链、价值链。同时要构建区块链产业生态，加快区块链和人工智能、大数据、物联网等前沿信息技术的深度融合，推动集成创新和融合应用。要加强人才队伍建设，建立完善人才培养体系，打造多种形式的高层次人才培养平台，培育一批领军人物和高水平创新团队。
According to the report, President Xi Jinping has stressed the need to strengthen basic research, upgrade original innovation capabilities, and try to get my country on the cutting edge of the theory in the emerging area of the block chain, occupy high innovation points and gain new advantages in the industry. It is important to promote concerted efforts to speed up core technological breakthroughs and provide secure and manageable technological support for the application of block chains. It is important to strengthen research on the standardization of block chains and to enhance international voice and rule-making. It is important to accelerate industrial development, make good use of market advantages, further connect innovation chains, application chains and value chains. At the same time, it is important to build the sector chain ecology, accelerate the in-depth integration of cutting-edge information technology, such as block chains and artificial intelligence, big data and material networking, and promote integration and innovation.
习近平主席指出，要抓住区块链技术融合、功能拓展、产业细分的契机，发挥区块链在促进数据共享、优化业务流程、降低运营成本、提升协同效率、建设可信体系等方面的作用。要利用区块链技术探索数字经济模式创新，为打造便捷高效、公平竞争、稳定透明的营商环境提供动力，为推进供给侧结构性改革、实现各行业供需有效对接提供服务，为加快新旧动能接续转换、推动经济高质量发展提供支撑。
President Xi Jinping noted the need to seize the opportunity of block chains for technological integration, functional expansion, industrial segmentation, and their role in promoting data sharing, optimizing business processes, reducing operating costs, enhancing synergies, and building credible systems. The use of block chains to explore digital economy model innovations provides an incentive to create an easy and efficient, level playing field and a stable and transparent business environment that provides services to advance supply-side structural reforms, to achieve effective supply and demand interfaces across sectors, and supports the acceleration of old and new dynamic energy continuity and to promote high-quality economic development.
要利用区块链技术促进城市间在信息、资金、人才、征信等方面更大规模的互联互通，保障生产要素在区域内有序高效流动。
The use of block-chain technology is needed to promote greater inter-city connectivity in terms of information, finance, talent and trust, and to guarantee an orderly and efficient flow of factors of production within the region.
要探索利用区块链数据共享模式，实现政务数据跨部门、跨区域共同维护和利用，促进业务协同办理，深化“最多跑一次”改革，为人民群众带来更好的政务服务体验。同时还要加强对区块链技术的引导和规范，加强对区块链安全风险的研究和分析，密切跟踪发展动态，积极探索发展规律。要探索建立适应区块链技术机制的安全保障体系，引导和推动区块链开发者、平台运营者加强行业自律、落实安全责任。要把依法治网落实到区块链管理中，推动区块链安全有序发展。
It is important to explore the use of block chain data-sharing models to achieve cross-sectoral and cross-regional co-maintainment and utilization of government data, promote operational synergies, deepen “up to one run” reforms, and bring about a better experience of government services for the population. It is also important to strengthen the guidance and regulation of block chain technologies, strengthen research and analysis on the risks of block chain security, follow developments closely, and actively explore development patterns. It is important to explore safety and security systems that can be adapted to block chain technical mechanisms, guide and promote industry self-regulation and security responsibilities among block developers and platform operators.
习近平指出，相关部门及其负责领导同志要注意区块链技术发展现状和趋势，提高运用和管理区块链技术能力，使区块链技术在建设网络强国、发展数字经济、助力经济社会发展等方面发挥更大作用。
According to Xi Jinping, the relevant departments and their leaders need to pay attention to the current state of and trends in the technological development of the block chain, to improve the technical capacity to apply and manage the block chain, and to increase the role of block chain technology in building network powers, developing the digital economy and contributing to economic and social development.
数字货币市场价格全线暴涨
一种普遍的看法是，习近平关于区块链的讲话精神是全球迄今为止看到的对区块链技术的最高级别认可。与此同时，随着各地学习落实中央精神，可以预计区块链新闻将会持续刷屏。
There is a general view that Xi’s speech on the block chain is the highest-level endorsement of block chain technology that the world has seen so far. At the same time, with local learning to implement the central spirit, it can be expected that block chain news will continue to be painted.
而就在此次中央讲话的前几日，北京时间10月23日22：00，应美国众议院金融服务委员会要求，美股上市公司Facebook首席执行官扎克伯格亲自出席Libra数字货币项目听证会，扎克伯格表示：中国支付基础设施比美国更先进，尤其是要考虑中国央行可能会推出央行官方的数字货币。
And just a few days before this central address, Beijing time on October 23, 22:00, at the request of the United States House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, the Chief Executive Officer of Facebook, a US-owned listed company, Zuckerberg, attended the Libra Digital Currency Project hearing in person, saying that China’s payment infrastructure was much more advanced than in the United States, especially considering that the Central Bank of China might launch the central bank’s official digital currency.
这一次，中国对区块链领域的政策支持无疑是站在全球的制高点，受中国的政策影响，数字货币市场在10月26日凌晨开始被持续引爆。
On this occasion, China's policy support in the area of block chains was undoubtedly at a global high point, influenced by China's policies, and the digital currency market began to explode in the early hours of 26 October.
数据显示，截至26日上午9时，市值排名前100的数字货币，约9成以上的币种涨幅超过15%，超过15只品种涨幅超过30%，其中，比特币的涨幅一度超过40%，价格突破1万美元大关，比特币价格盘中触及10500美元，比特币的市值超过1.22万亿人民币，24小时成交额为1239亿人民币，换手率约10%。
The data show that by 9 a.m. on 26th of the morning, the market value of the top 100 digital currencies had increased by more than 15 per cent in some 90 per cent and by more than 30 per cent in more than 15 varieties, with an increase of over 40 per cent in Bitcoin, a price of over $10,000, a price of $10,500 in the Bitcoin price plate, a market value of more than RMB 122 trillion and a 24-hour turnover of RMB 123.9 billion and a hand exchange rate of about 10 per cent.
截至目前，约有17只数字货币的市值超过50亿人民币，其中包括孙宇晨的波场币，虽然孙宇晨一度因为巴菲特午餐引发争议，但孙宇晨的波场币近期略有反弹，26日涨幅也超过15%，市值超过80亿人民币。
To date, there are about 17 digital currencies with a market value of more than RMB 5 billion, including Sun Woo's morning wave currency, which has recently rebounded slightly, with an increase of more than 15 per cent on 26 days and a market value of more than RMB 8 billion, although Sun Woo's morning lunch was controversial.
某种程度上说，孙宇晨的波场币进入全球数字货币十强名单已是一步之遥，距离排名第10的恒星币只差不到9亿人民币的市值。
To some extent, Sun Woo’s morning wave currency has reached the top ten digital currency list of the world, which is less than RMB 900 million short of the 10th-ranked star currency.
目前全球市值十强的数字货币中，前三强分别是比特币、以太坊、瑞波币。市值分别为1.2万亿人民币、1412亿人民币、912亿人民币。由中国团队打造数字货币交易所（币圈券商公司）——币安所发行的币安币也进入十强，市值高达208亿人民币。而因涉嫌“侵吞”客户资金陷入与知名私募杨永新诉讼中的OKEX数字货币交易所，其发行的OKB目前市值约60亿人民币。
At present, the top three of the top 10 digital currencies are Bitcoin, Etheria, and Ribot, respectively. The market values are 1.2 trillion yuan, 141.2 billion yuan, and 91.2 billion yuan, respectively.
第三次减半还能刺激比特币疯涨30倍吗？
Can the third half of the strong stimulate a 30-fold jump in bitcoin?
值得一提的是，比特币此次暴涨的另一重大因素是，比特币的“减半”。
It is worth mentioning that another major factor in the surge in Bitcoin was the “half-half” of Bitcoin.
比特币作为区块链的核心精神、虚拟货币的开创者，大约每十分钟会“长”出一定数量的新比特币，直到总数达到2100万个。目前比特币已被挖出约85.68%，比特币每4年产量减半，减半意味着供应端减少，这在A股市场可以大致理解为限售股上市。
Bitcoin, as the core of the block chain, the founder of virtual money, will grow in a certain amount of new bitcoin every 10 minutes, until the total is 21 million. Bitcoin has now been dug out about 85.68%, and bitcoin has been halved every four years, meaning a reduction in the supply end, which is broadly understood in the A share market as limited to sales.
最开始比特币挖矿，每个区块可以奖励50个比特币，现在的比特币矿工每挖出一个区块奖励12.5个比特币，一天就是可以挖出1800个比特币。减半之后就是一个区块出6.25个，一天出900个，每天挖出的比特币又少了一半，需求端如果不变，投入于二级市场交易的比特币数量变少了，比特币价格也会更容易上涨。
The first bitcoin digs, each block can be rewarded with 50 bitcoins, and now the bitcoin miners will be rewarded with 12.5 bitcoins for every block they dig up. After halving, there are 6.25 bitcoins in a block, 900 bitcoins in a day, half the bitcoins in a day, and the amount of bitcoins in a secondary market will be less in demand, and bitcoin prices will increase more easily.
比特币首次减半发生在2012年11月28日。
The first halving of Bitcoin took place on 28 November 2012.
在减半前的6个月，比特币价格从5美元上涨到减半时的12美元，事实上，如果进一步往前参考，比特币这一波上涨到12美元是从最低价格2美元启动的。在减半事件发生后，过了369天，也就是到了2013年12月2日，比特币价格从12美元一路飙升到当时的历史新高994美元左右，价格涨幅接近8000%，第一次减半前后形成的行情，在中国大陆创造出许多比特币富豪。
Six months before the halving, the price of Bitcoin had risen from $5 to $12 when it had been halved. Indeed, if one goes further, the wave of Bitcoin had been triggered by a minimum price of $2. After the halving event, 369 days had passed, that is, on 2 December 2013, the price of Bitcoin had soared from $12 to a historicly high of $994, and prices had increased by nearly 8,000 per cent, creating a lot of bitcoin richness on the mainland of China before and after the first halving.
比特币第二次减半是在2016年7月9日，第二次减半时比特币价格为650美元附近，在减半事件发生后，也就是2017年12月16日，在不到530天内，比特币又创造了一个价格新高，每个比特币的价格达到惊人的19500美元，价格涨幅约3000%。
The second half of Bitcoin, on 9 July 2016, and the second half, was close to $650. After the halving event, which took place on 16 December 2017, a new price was created in Bitcoin in less than 530 days, at an alarmingly high price of $19,500 per bitcoin, with a price increase of about 3,000 per cent.
目前市场普遍认为，第三次比特币减半普遍将发生在2020年5月的某个时间。届时，目前每10分钟12.5枚比特币的区块奖励将减半至6.25枚比特币。考虑到比特币最大供应量为2100万个，比特币区块奖励减半意味着所有比特币进入全流通时代将在之后需要更长的时间。
It is now widely accepted in the market that the third halving of bitcoins will generally take place some time in May 2020. At that time, the current block reward of 12.5 bitcoins per 10 minutes will be halved to 6.25 bitcoins.
有市场分析师认为，考虑到目前已经开采出来的比特币数量为1800万个，其中约15%的比特币处于“不知道放在哪里”——忘记密码、被盗或丢失。再加上第三次减半的规则，挖矿所产生的新比特币的数量进一步变少，提高了二级市场所流通的比特币稀缺性。
According to market analysts, considering that the number of bitcoins that have been mined is currently 18 million, about 15% of them are in “unknow where they are” – forgetting passwords, stolen, or lost. With the rule of halving the third time, the number of new bitcoins generated by mining is further reduced, increasing the scarcity of bitcoins in secondary markets.
但也有分析师认为，比特币从1美元上涨到100美元，从100美元上涨到10000美元，以及从1万美元上涨到部分分析师所鼓吹的10万美元，其所承受的难度是完全不一样。
However, according to analysts, the difficulties of increasing bitcoin from US$ 1 to US$ 100, from US$ 100 to US$ 10,000, and from US$ 10,000 to the US$ 100,000 advocated by some analysts are quite different.
数据也可以发现，比特币第一次减半引发比特币上涨80倍左右，而第二次比特币减半引发的上涨就降至30倍，因为不同的价格基数上涨数十倍所需要的资金弹药完全不同，但减半的预期的确提高了一些投资者入场的信心，比特币能再一次复制第一次减半和第二次减半时涨幅80倍、30倍的盛况吗？
The data also show that the first halving of bitcoin triggers an increase of about 80 times in bitcoin, while the second halving of bitcoin triggers an increase of 30 times, because the money ammunition required for a multi-fold increase in different price bases is completely different, but the expectation of halving does increase the confidence of some investors to enter, and can bitcoin replicate once again the 80-fold and 30-fold increases in the first and second halves?
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