文/新浪财经意见领袖专栏（微信公众号kopleader）专栏作家 李虹含
Li Seung-hae, columnist for the Man/New Wave Financial and Economics Leaders (Kopleader)
我们最终变不成我们热望的样子，只会在狂热的追逐里沦为笑柄和韭菜。
1
2018年春节最火的科技圈事件莫过于“3点半钟无眠区块链”，而其诡异的忽然崛起让人不免好奇它的结局。
The most exciting event of spring 2018 was the “3:30 sleepless block chain”, and its bizarre sudden rise made one wonder about its outcome.
今天OKEX刚刚上线，涨幅便高达39倍的某虚拟代币让所有人恍然大悟：原来这是一场有预谋的营销而矣！
Today, when OKEX was just on the line, a 39-fold increase in a virtual token reminded everyone that it was a premeditated marketing operation!
这个群里汇集了蔡文胜、李笑来、沈南鹏、薛蛮子、徐小平、周鸿祎等科技圈大佬……同时还有汪峰、佟丽娅、胡海泉、高晓松等娱乐圈大咖！
This group brings together technocrats such as Chai Wensheng, Li Xi Xiaoping, Xue Hanko, Seo Xiaoping, Zhou Hongjing, and entertainers such as Wang Feng, Julia, Hu Hai Quan, Gao Xiaozon, etc.
回眸起源，自除夕开始，每天从这个群里流出来的信息，均让一干币圈韭菜们振奋，他们将这些大佬之间热切讨论的区块链话题奉为圭臬，就差磕上等身长头，长跪不起，韭菜们已将这些大佬奉为神明。
From the beginning of New Year's Eve, the messages that flow out of this crowd every day cheered up the enthusiasts, who took the topic of the chain of blocks that were so hotly discussed between the big ones to the point where they fell on their long heads and kneeled down, and the twigs took them as gods.
他们认为这些大佬们均是其未来目之所及，可以变成的样子。韭菜们认为自己通过炒币或者参与区块链就能成为他们的其中之一，有朝一日韭菜也能变成他们拿着古巴雪茄，指点江山的样子。
They think that these big guys are in their future and can become themselves. The pickles think that they can be one of them by selling coins or participating in the chain of blocks, and one day they can be the ones holding Cuban cigars and pointing at them.
几乎是一夜之间，全国各地纷纷冒出来各种以【3点钟】命名的分叉群，多达上万个，吸引了众多年后要入局区块链及币圈的新人或新韭菜。
Almost overnight, various forks named after [three o'clock] have emerged throughout the country, amounting to tens of thousands, attracting new people or new pickles to enter the chain of blocks and currency rings after so many years.
这个在除夕前后才建立起来的区块链微信群，为什么可以大佬云集、又为什么如此火爆？
Why is this micro-strategy of blocks built only before New Year's Eve so hot?
这些大佬在这个群里不眠不休地只聊区块链的最终目的是什么呢？
What's the ultimate purpose of these big guys talking about block chains in these crowds?
2
今天恍然有了答案：
Today we have the answer:
2018年2月23日，传说中美图的代币Bec上线OKEX，当日BEC上涨幅度高达3900%，一个40倍币就此诞生。美图秀秀的创始人蔡文胜在3点半区块链群吆喝了已整整一个春节，2月23日一个下午，Bec的电报群人数超过5万人，其中大部分是中国人，而后蔡文胜澄清Bec为美图的国外合作方发行代币，一场乌龙也是一场暴富梦碎。
On February 23, 2018, the legend claimed that the Chinese-American map's token bec upline, OKEX, rose by as much as 3900% that day, and a 40-fold coin was born. The founder of the map show, Chai Wen, drank a whole spring festival at 3:30 p.m. One afternoon, February 23, Bec's telegrams numbered more than 50,000, most of them Chinese, and then Zai Win clarified that Bec had issued a token for his foreign partner, and that a Ulong was also a violent dream.
在2017年1月中国互联网金融协会《防范境外ICO、“虚拟货币”交易风险》发文之后，所有区块链公司披上华丽外衣到海外寻求代币发行。
In January 2017, following a communication from the China Internet Finance Association entitled “Preventing ICO, “virtual currency” transactions abroad”, all block-chain companies went abroad to seek currency distribution in fancy coats.
对一夜暴富不死心的韭菜们，也纷纷追随，使用VPN、翻墙，各种手法，追逐大佬们的脚步，希望听到大佬的“传道、授业、解惑”，获得更加坚实的信仰。
There is also a lot of follow-up to the one-night rich pickles, using VPNs, flipping walls, all kinds of tactics, chasing the big ones' footsteps, hoping to hear the big ones' “fathma, teaching, demagogy” and gain a stronger faith.
以使自己通过各种方式购买到的代币，拥有更多可以想象的上涨空间。
In order to give itself more imaginable room for upswing in the money that it buys in a variety of ways.
目前，币圈ICO的手法已经完全变化，再不使用人民币等法定货币进行ICO交易。
At present, the currency circle ICO has changed completely, and no longer deals with ICO in legal currencies such as the renminbi.
大部分韭菜为了参与ICO，通过场外交易的方式，将人民币换成BTC、ETH、EOS这些公链的虚拟货币，然后再用公链虚拟货币换成私链或联盟链虚拟货币。
For the purpose of participating in the ICO, most of the pickles are exchanged for BTC, ETH, EOS, virtual currency in the public chain, by means of off-site transactions, and then for private or unionized virtual currency in the public chain.
然而，韭菜被收割的宿命从来没有改变，自人民币等法币被换出之后便要经历多重风险。
However, the fate of the pickles that have been harvested has never changed, and many risks have been experienced since the exchange of the renminbi and other French coins.
第一轮收割发生在换换回的公链虚拟货币价格的下跌。
The first harvest occurred in a fall in the price of virtual currency in the public chain for swaps.
在场外交易，也就是在微信群、场外交易市场（OTB、BITFINEX）等接受法币的交易所换回的虚拟货币BTC、ETH、EOS面临着大规模下跌风险。
Out-of-the-spot transactions, i.e. virtual currency BTC, ETH, EOS, are at risk of large-scale decline in exchange for French currency exchanges such as micro-message, off-site trading markets (OTB, BITFINEX).
例如：BTC从春节前的1万3千美元，跌至现今的9000美元，ETH则从8000美元跌至5000美元，韭菜们出血大半。
For example, BTC fell from $13,000 before the Spring Festival to $9,000 today, ETH from $8,000 to $5,000, and the pickles bleed more than half.
第二轮收割发生在虚拟货币上线前后。
The second harvest took place before and after the virtual currency was online.
例如：韭菜们翻墙换来的虚拟货币迟迟不肯上线。某些虚拟货币，类似 orchid兰花、CRE等项目，基石轮、私募轮均有锁定期，非常缓慢地发币。
For example, the virtual currency that the pickles turn over the wall is too slow to get online. Some virtual currencies, like orchid orchid orchids, CRE, are locked and regularly issued, and the base wheels and the private ones are very slow to pay.
貌似发币时涨幅巨大，但当韭菜得到虚拟货币时，又开始大幅下跌。
It appears that there was a huge increase when the currency was issued, but when the pickles received the virtual currency, they began to fall sharply again.
市场上这种割韭菜的手法也是屡试不爽，棒棒哒的。
This cutting of vegetables on the market has been tried repeatedly and has been excellent.
而靠出卖情怀来制造卖点更是屡见不鲜。
It is more common to make a selling point by selling love.
就像2018年春节期间大爆的三点半区块链讨论。当大家都一脸懵逼，或满心崇拜、期待地每天等待着那些群里流出来的一星半点的“布道、教义”时。
It's like a three-and-a-half-point chain discussion during Spring 2018. When all of us are squeezing, or worshipping, waiting every day for the sermons, the teachings, and the half-points that flow out of those crowds.
没想到：原来大佬们只是想让你来买他们的情怀，买他们的布道与教义。
I didn't realize that they wanted you to buy their love, their sermons and their teachings.
大佬的情怀原来只是用来吆喝卖东西的。
Big man's love was used only to drink and sell.
这个年代，像电视台上那样直截了当卖东西的广告词只会被人耻笑。往日里不作不死强行洗脑的广告再也没有用了，比如：
In these days, simply selling ads like the ones on TV is just a joke. It's no longer useful to be obstinately brainwashed ads in the past, for example:
1．恒源祥，羊、羊、羊！2．穿金猴皮鞋，走金光大道！3．妇炎洁，洗洗更健康。4．好开心啊，又可以吃成长快乐了。5．得了灰指甲，一个传染俩！
I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy. I've got gray nails, I'm contagious!
现在能够让人无条件付款的只有信仰，特别是对大佬的信仰，传销组织里疯狂的振臂和回应，朝鲜人民对金正恩领袖的无条件信仰与推崇，都是这些组织兴旺发达的根基。
The only things that can now be paid without conditions are faith, especially the big man's faith, the insane stunning arm and the response of the distribution organization, the unconditional belief and promotion of Kim Jong-un's leader by the Korean people, which is the foundation on which those organizations thrive.
3
我们对大佬真的要做到这样无条件信仰吗？
Are we really going to believe this unconditionally?
大家有没有想过：大佬之所以被称之为大佬，是因为他有钱？还是因为他有才华？或者是他说的话一直都是对的？
Has it ever occurred to any of you that the big man is called the big man because he's rich or because he's talented or because he's always right?
在烽火离乱的革命岁月，人们发现，每一次反对毛主席的人，都会走向覆灭的结局，每一次毛主席的战略战术都是正确无比的。
During the days of the conflagration of the revolution, it was found that every time anyone opposed Chairman Mao, the end was over, and every time Chairman Mao's strategic tactics were right.
于是人们形成了对他的信仰。
So people formed faith in him.
而在币圈，有哪一个大佬，敢真正说，自己就是永远正确的呢？永远是让韭菜赚钱的？永远不存任何私心、天下为公的呢？
And in the currency, which big man dares to say that he is always right? Will he always let the pickles make money? Will there never be any privacy, no justice in the world?
遗憾的说：真的没有！
I'm sorry to say: I really don't!
币圈只是一个夹杂着贪婪与欲望、疯狂与毁灭的传说，参与其中的韭菜或大佬概莫能外。
The ring is nothing but a legend of greed and desire, madness and destruction, in which no one can be involved, either the pickle or the big man.
今天，这次3点半区块链讨论最终迎来了故事的高潮，美图的代币BEC上线，涨幅高达39余倍，项目方赚得盆盈钵满。
Today, this 3:30 p.m. block chain discussion finally culminated in the story of the map's token BEC, which rose by more than 39 times, and the project made a huge profit.
韭菜们开始奔走相向、弹冠相庆，激动的泪水流满面庞，他们握住币圈战友的手，激动地呼唤着：我们胜利了！信仰胜利了！
The groceries began to run, and the crowns were crowned, and tears of excitement filled their faces. They held hands in the currency ring and cried out: "We have won! Faith has won!"
然而，胜利能持续多久呢？
However, how long can victory last?
是否涨幅30倍可以持续哪怕一周或者一个月，甚至一天。
A 30-fold increase can last for a week or a month or even a day.
以上线bigone的几个代币为例：candy、CRE、big上线当天上涨超50%，之后开始缓步下跌，至今跌幅均超过50%。
The above line of bigone is an example: Candy, CRE and Big rose by more than 50 per cent on the same day and then began to slow down, all of them falling by more than 50 per cent to date.
也许我们可以用“熊市”来为这些代币的下跌作解释，但这也是给这些大佬们的收割韭菜所找借口。
Maybe we can use the Bear City to explain the fall in these tokens, but it's also an excuse for these big guys to harvest pickles.
因为大佬与庄家的出货毫无疑问会造成下跌，而市场的漫漫熊途也会造成下跌。
Because there is no doubt that sales from the big man and the dealer will cause a fall, and the market will cause a fall.
两个虽然原因不同，但是下跌的结果却都一样。
Both, though for different reasons, had the same results.
于是，韭菜们会用“时也、运也、命也”这样的话来安慰自已，同时，又会在这悲凉的气氛中收到大佬们“坚定信心，反正我一个也没卖”的鼓动与号召。
So the pickles comfort themselves with the words “time, time, luck, life” and, in this sad atmosphere, receive calls and calls from the big guys “to be sure, I haven't sold” anyway.
于是韭菜们再次得到信仰，再次：持币一万年不动。
So the pickles got back to their faith again, again: 10,000 years in coins.
熟不知，他们在场外交易里花着真金白银换来的BTC、ETH、EOS在下跌，自己换的代币也在下跌。
I don't know, they're in the middle of a deal with BTC, ETH, EOS for real silver, and they're in the middle of a fall in their own exchange.
跌上加跌，早已跌成狗，而面对这支跌成丧家之犬的代币，韭菜们却还是殷切地望着他们的主人，那些发币的大佬们。
And when he fell and fell, he was already a dog, and faced with the token of the dog that fell into ruins, the pickles looked up to their masters, the big men who gave the coins.
他们寄希望于大佬还会为这些已经被他们抛弃的狗一些补给和供养，哪怕就是一点点美好的颜色。
They hope that the big man will also feed and feed the dogs they have abandoned, even a little bit of color.
让这支代币可以再稍微上涨一点点，然后他们再卖掉，回血，少损失一点点。
Let's get this token up a little bit, and then they'll sell it again, return the blood and lose a little bit.
币圈的韭菜们的眼中常含着泪水，因为他们经常激动地凝望着大佬，满怀期待；同时，下跌的时候仍然，痛苦地凝望着大佬，希望他们施以援手和拯救。
Tears are always in the eyes of the chords of the currency because they look up to the big man with a lot of excitement and expectations; at the same time, when they fall, they look down at the big man with pain and hope that they will help and save him.
然而，大佬亦凡人。
However, the big man is also mortal.
难道他们的讨论真的就是毫无功利和目的吗？
Is it true that their discussions are devoid of merit and purpose?
当然不是，当他们ALL IN 区块链的时候，他需要我们也能够All IN。
Of course not, when they're all in the block chain, he needs us to be able to all in.
因为有人追随才能称之为大佬，而无人追随只能叫小透明。
Because someone can only be called a big guy and no one can be called a little more transparent.
目前大佬们在币圈获利的模式也有三种：
There are three ways in which the big guys are profiting from the currency:
一是为某些项目站台，即充当项目顾问或合作方，获得站台费收入，包括btc、eth、EOS，或者是直接获取项目分发给他的代币，他再转手在上市的交易所卖出。
One is to serve as a project site, i.e. to act as a project consultant or partner, to receive the station fee income, including btc, EOS, or to obtain directly the currency distributed to him by the project, which he then sells on a listed exchange.
二是为通过构建自己的小密圈、私募群。获得上课费与会费收入。
Second, you want to get class fees and membership income by building your own little circle, private collection.
例如，币圈里盛传的600ETH群，还有某些代投一个BTC会收10%的手续费。
For example, there are 600 ETHs in currency circles and some have to pay a 10 per cent fee for a BTC.
三是为自己的项目宣传，就像三点半钟区块链无眠群。
The third is to promote their projects, like a three-and-a-half-hour block of insomnia.
它最终的目的是什么，几乎昭然若揭。
What its ultimate purpose is, it's almost obvious.
总结
Summary
我们要为自己的梦想买单，而不是为大佬的私欲买单。
We have to pay for our dreams, not for Big Man's selfishness.
你每天看再多3点钟无眠区块链，拥有的也只是黑眼圈，大佬们在海外不管制ICO和比特币的国度里，呼吁你拿真金白银支持他，而你在中国和他们隔着的不止是时差，还有一个巨大的财富鸿沟。
Every day you look at the 3 o'clock insomnia chain with only black eyes, and the big guys are calling on you to support him with real silver in a foreign country that does not control ICO and Bitcoin, and you are more than a time difference between China and them, and there is a huge wealth gap.
如果投资虚拟货币真的可以一个一个全都暴富的话，那还要“撸起袖子加油干”做什么？
If it's true that investing in virtual money can be rich all at once, what do you need to do with "sleeve up and dry"?
大家全都躺在家里炒炒币，做做ICO、聊聊微信就好啦。
We're all lying at home, making ICOs, talking about micro-letters.
其实，信仰是我们面对困难的态度。
In fact, faith is the attitude we face.
当我们面对困难时相信佛祖，色色空空的境界让我们拥有出离尘世的大彻大悟之心。
When we are faced with difficulties, we believe that Buddhas, the colours of the void, give us a great sense of departure from the world.
当我们面对币圈的不断下跌时相信大佬，不断被收割的韭菜经历让我们越来越觉得自己就是一个岁月轮回里的笑话。
As we face the downward spiral of currency circles, believing in the big man, the experience of constantly being harvested veggies makes us feel more and more like a joke from a time to a time.
所以，信啥呢？
So, what do you believe?
还不如信信“撸起袖子加油干”吧！
It's better to believe, "Stick your sleeves up and dry."
3点钟无眠区块链的代币今日上线，不知道今天那个群里又会流出些什么样的消息。
At 3 o'clock, the tokens of the insomnia block chain are on the line today, and it is not clear what kind of news will flow from that crowd today.
是信仰呢，信仰呢，还是信仰呢？
Is it faith, is it faith, or is it faith?
反正我已经开始不信了，不知道你呢？
I don't believe you anymore. I don't know about you.
(本文作者介绍：中国人民大学国际货币所研究员。)
(Introduction by author: Research Fellow, International Monetary Institute, People's University of China.
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