比特币被宣告死亡多少次?至少463次。而且从来都不是因为它的货币体系失灵或者它的技术操作崩溃,而是因为它的价格暴跌。
How many times has Bitcoin been declared dead? At least 463 times. And never because its monetary system failed or its technical operations collapsed, but because its prices fell sharply.
有些人可能会争辩说,这两件事——技术发展和价格行为——有着内在的联系,但事实并非如此。
Some may argue that these two things — technological developments and price behaviour — are intrinsically linked, but that is not the case.
比特币的价格波动主要是由其自身的减半周期和宏观经济事件驱动的。自从比特币出身卑微以来,它就经历了一段动荡的历史。其臭名昭著的波动性导致价值多次升值 1,000%,但随后又下跌了 80% 甚至 90%——例如 2014 年。
Bitcoin price volatility is driven largely by its own halving cycle and macroeconomic events. It has gone through a history of instability since its low birth. Its infamous volatility has led to multiple appreciations of value of 1,000 per cent, but it has subsequently fallen by 80 per cent, or even 90 per cent — for example, in 2014.
不过,每一次它都会反弹,恢复之前的高点并继续创下新高。这种韧性已经证明一些最有经验的投资者是错误的,并在此过程中赢得了新的支持者。
Each time, however, it bounces back, restoring its pre-existing highs and continues to build new ones. This resilience has proven to be wrong for some of the most experienced investors and has won new supporters in the process.
在本文中,我们年复一年地详细介绍比特币的价格历史,围绕将其塑造为创新货币体系的关键事件。
In this paper, we provide year after year a detailed account of the price history of Bitcoin around key events that shape it into an innovative monetary system.
比特币创建于 2008 年,旨在挑战现有的由官僚和不稳定的银行发行的集中式、基于信用的货币系统。通过信任代码而不是人为漏洞,比特币提供了一条摆脱困境的出路。
Bitcoin was created in 2008 to challenge existing centralized, credit-based monetary systems issued by bureaucrats and unstable banks. By trust codes, rather than artificial loopholes, Bitcoin offers a way out of this dilemma.
起初这项新发明只不过是一个实验,但那些阅读白皮书并了解密码学、货币和金融知识的人已经可以看到它变成了比简单的密码玩具更大的东西。
Initially, the new invention was an experiment, but those who read the white paper and learned about cryptology, money and finance have seen it become something bigger than simple cryptographic toys.
第一年,比特币没有市场价格;它没有任何大型风险投资公司的预挖或任何轮投资。2010 年,当它开始用于商品和服务交易时,情况发生了变化,这将使它走上通往今天创新和替代货币体系的道路——从 2009 年的 0 美元到仅 13 年的 68,000 美元。
In the first year, Bitcoin had no market price; it did not have any large venture capital companies predating or any other round of investment. In 2010, when it started to be used for trade in goods and services, the situation changed, which would put it on the road to today’s innovation and alternative monetary system – from US$ 0 in 2009 to US$ 68,000 in just 13 years.
接下来,我们将探讨比特币如何从一个有着远大抱负的科技玩具成长为一种真正的货币资产,并继续兑现其承诺。
Next, we will explore how Bitcoin can grow from an ambitious toy of technology to a real monetary asset and continue to deliver on its promises.
中本聪在 2008 年 10 月 31 日发布的白皮书中强调了比特币的概念验证。整个 2009 年,任何人都可以毫不费力地通过使用计算机的 CPU 挖掘比特币块来加入网络。考虑到所有因素,价格仍然是 0 美元。
In the White Paper released on October 31, 2008, Nakamoto emphasized the proof of the Bitcoin concept. Throughout 2009, anyone can join the network by digging bitcoins using computer CPUs. The price is still zero dollars, taking into account all the factors.
价格范围 $0-$.0009
Price range
中本聪用著名的文字说明和伦敦时报的标题“财政大臣濒临第二次银行救助计划”挖掘了创世块——明确提到了 2008-2009 年的金融危机。
China’s famous narrative and the London Times’ title, “Minister of Finance on the verge of a second bank bailout”, excavated the creation block – a clear reference to the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
欧洲主权债务危机始于 11 月,当时希腊公布其预算赤字几乎是先前估计的两倍。虽然这一事件在比特币历史上还为时过早,无法以任何有意义的方式影响价格,但负债累累的主权国家将继续成为比特币与之相比较的传统货币体系中的一个担忧。
The European sovereign debt crisis began in November, when Greece announced that it had a budget deficit of almost twice that previously estimated. Although this event was too early in Bitcoin’s history to affect prices in any meaningful way, highly indebted sovereign states will continue to be a concern in the traditional monetary system compared with Bitcoin.
2009 年 10 月 12 日,BitcoinTalk 论坛的一名成员通过 Paypal以 5.02 美元的价格交易了 5050 BTC,这意味着每枚代币的价格为 0.00099 美元,并且是有记录以来每 BTC 的最低价格之一。这笔交易在接下来的几个月里引发了一系列场外交易。
On October 12, 2009, a member of the BitcoinTalk Forum traded 5050 BTC through Paypal for $5.02, which means that the price per token is US$0.00099 and is one of the lowest prices per BTC recorded. The transaction triggered a series of off-site transactions in the following months.
价格范围 $.00099-$0.4
Price range $.00099-$0.4
2 月 20 日,reddit 上一位用户名为 theymos 的人声称以 0.003 美元的价格售出了160 个 BTC,这将使其成为有史以来的最低价格。
On February 20, Reddit's last user, theirmos, claimed to have sold 160 BTCs at a price of US$003, which would make it the lowest price ever.
5 月 22 日,Laszlo Hanyecz 以 10,000 比特币购买了两个披萨,这是比特币与现实世界产品的首次标志性交易;比特币披萨节诞生了。
On May 22, Laszlo Hanyecz purchased two pizzas in 10,000 bitcoin, the first landmark trade between bitcoin and real-world products; the Bitcoin pizza festival was born.
第一个大型比特币交易所 Mt. Gox 于 7 月 18 日亮相。
The first large Bitcoin Exchange, Mt. Gox, opened on July 18.
8 月,比特币网络历史上最重大的漏洞被利用,攻击者设法花费了他们并不拥有的数十亿比特币。该漏洞在数小时内被发现并修复,矿工不得不分叉网络并发布一个新的、更新的比特币协议,其中不包括恶意交易。
In August, the most significant gap in the history of the Bitcoin network was exploited, and the attackers managed to spend billions of bitcoins that they did not own. The gap was discovered and repaired within hours, and miners had to split the network and issue a new, updated Bitcoin agreement, which did not include malicious transactions.
价格范围 $0.4-$4.70
Price range $ 0.4-$4.70
比特币在 2 月份首次与美元持平,实现了一个里程碑。2011 年 4 月 26 日,中本聪向其他开发人员发送了他的最后一封电子邮件,称他已“转向其他项目”——此后便再也没有音讯。
Bitcoin achieved a milestone when it first flattened with the dollar in February. On April 26, 2011, Nakamoto sent his last e-mail to other developers, stating that he had “turned to other projects” – and that he had not heard since.
比特币支付处理商BitPay成立于 5 月,旨在让公司接受比特币作为一种支付方式。到 6 月,一个比特币的价格已经达到 30 美元,但慢慢回落到 2 美元至 4 美元的范围内,并在今年余下的时间里保持不变。
Bitpay, the Bitcoin payment processor, was established in May to allow companies to accept bitcoin as a payment modality. By June, a bitcoin price had reached $30, but slowly fell to the range of $2 to $4 and remained unchanged for the rest of the year.
电子前沿基金会和维基解密等非营利组织开始接受比特币捐款,后者在 2010 年 12 月 PayPal 冻结维基解密账户后转向比特币。
Non-profit organizations such as the Electronic Front Foundation and WikiLeaks began to receive Bitcoin contributions, which turned to Bitcoin after PayPal blocked WikiLeaks accounts in December 2010.
2011 年 6 月,Mt. Gox 经历了第一次黑客攻击,黑客设法进入公司审计员的计算机并将比特币的价格更改为 1 美分。
In June 2011, Mt. Gox experienced the first hacker attack, and hackers managed to access the company's auditors'computers and to change the price of Bitcoin to 1 cent.
价格范围:4-13.50 美元
Price range: US$ 4-13.50
2012 年伊始,欧洲主权债务危机仍未平息,部分成员国对欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织的偿债依赖度上升。塞浦路斯受到的打击尤其严重,受塞浦路斯金融危机影响最严重的地区对比特币的需求不断增加。
At the beginning of 2012, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe remained unresolved, with some member countries becoming more dependent on the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund for their debt servicing. Cyprus was particularly hard hit, with increasing demand from the region most affected by the Cyprus financial crisis, which is in the region of Bitcoin.
Coinbase成立于 2012 年 6 月,提供了一种买卖加密货币的新方式。
Coinbase was established in June 2012 to provide a new way of buying and selling encrypted currency.
8 月 9 日, Mt. Gox 故障导致比特币在交易所的价格为每件 10 亿美元。11 天后的 8 月 20 日,价格从 15.28 美元暴跌 50% 至 7.60 美元,原因是有消息称每周利率为 7% 的可疑比特币储蓄和信托基金计划被关闭。该基金的运营商 Trendon Shavers 后来在第一起比特币证券欺诈案中被判刑。
On 9 August, the Mt. Gox malfunction caused Bitcoin to have a price of $1 billion per piece on the exchange. Eleven days later, on 20 August, prices fell sharply from $15.28 to $7.60, as a result of reports that suspicious Bitcoin savings and trust fund schemes with weekly interest rates of 7% had been shut down. The Fund’s operator, Trendon Shavers, was later convicted in a Bitcoin securities fraud case.
比特币在今年余下的时间里进行整合,并在 11 月经历了第一次减半。年底的价格为 13.50 美元。
Bitcoin was consolidated for the rest of the year, and it went through its first half in November. The price at the end of the year was $13.50.
价格范围:13-755 美元
Price range: US$ 13-755
比特币经历了减半后的第一次牛市。今年年初的价格略高于 13 美元,在一个月内上涨至 26 美元。涨势在 4 月继续,并迅速升至 268 美元,然后在同月 10 日至 13 日暴跌 80% 至 51 美元。
Bitcoin experienced the first cattle market after halving. Prices were slightly higher than $13 at the beginning of the year, rising to $26 in one month. The upturn continued in April and rose rapidly to $268 and then plunged between 80 and 51 dollars from 10 to 13 the same month.
6 月,Mt. Gox停止处理美国提款,到 7 月,价格回落至 68.50 美元。当Silk Road 在 10 月被联邦调查局查封时,它的交易价格继续略高于 100 美元。
In June, Mt. Gox stopped processing withdrawals from the United States and, by July, the price fell back to US$ 68.50. When Silk Road was seized by the FBI in October, the transaction price continued to be slightly above US$ 100.
8 月 12 日,德国监管机构正式宣布比特币为记账单位。
On 12 August, the German regulator officially declared Bitcoin a unit of account.
到 12 月,它飙升至 1,163 美元的历史新高,在 8 周内上涨了 840%,然后仅在几天后回落至 687 美元。去年 12 月,中国人民银行 (PBOC)禁止中国金融机构使用比特币,导致比特币跌至略高于 700 美元。这不是中国最后一次“禁止”比特币。
By December, it jumped to an all-time high of $1,163, rising by 840% in eight weeks, and fell only a few days later to $687. Last December, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) banned Chinese financial institutions from using bitcoins, causing bitcoins to fall slightly above $700.
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