原标题：比特币第三次减半仅小幅回升 狂欢数月缘何落地行情惨淡

这让人联想到近日因内部控制权引起关注的矿机龙头比特大陆，如果这一轮比特币行情继续上扬，对屡屡上市受挫的比特大陆是否是一个利好？

This brings to mind the recent history of Bitcoin, which has raised concerns about the right to internal control, and whether this round of Bitcoin would be a good thing for the frustrated Bitcoins, if it continued to rise.

区块链浏览器BTC.com信息显示，北京时间5月12日3点23分43秒，比特币区块链网络630000高度区块被挖出，播报方是蚂蚁矿池（Antpool）。

The block chain browser BTC.com information shows that on May 12, Beijing time, at 3:23 minutes and 43 seconds, Bitcoin network at 630,000 altitude, reporting the ant pond (Antpool).

在此高度，比特币区块奖励由12.5枚比特币降为6.25枚比特币。至此，比特币第三次奖励减半如期发生。

At this altitude, the Bitcoin block reward is reduced from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins. So the third bitcoin reward is halved as scheduled.

截至北京时间5月12日17点30分，比特币成交价8771.16美元，24小时涨幅3.36%。虽然告别了比特币减半前不涨反暴跌的意外行情，出现了小幅回升，但相较前两次比特币减半后的狂飙突进，此次比特币的市场反应显然有些不同寻常。

By 17:30 Beijing time, on May 12, Bitcoin had traded US$ 8771.16, an increase of 3.36% on a 24-hour basis. Although there had been a small recovery from the unexpected upswing before the halving of Bitcoin, the market response in Bitcoin had clearly been somewhat unusual, compared to the first two before the halving of Bitcoin.

21世纪经济报道记者获悉，四年一次的比特币奖励减半对币圈来说，就像奥运会开幕式的狂欢庆典，无人不期待。

Economic Reporters for the 21st Century were told that the four-yearly Bitcoin reward was halved for the currency circle, as was the festive celebration of the opening of the Olympic Games.

减半前夜，从比特币投资交流群中不难发现，许多投资人熬夜等待减半时刻的到来。机构投资者也不甘下风，各种减半活动的宣传海报霸占了朋友圈。而这次减半，似乎让比特币又一次成功出圈。

The night before the halving, it became clear from the Bitcoin investment conglomerate that many investors were waiting overnight for the halving of the hour. Institutional investors were not discouraged, and publicity posters for the halving campaign took over the circle of friends.

三次减半的前世今生

Three halves of former life

“减半”是比特币一种特有的发行机制。按照比特币创造者中本聪2008年底发布的比特币白皮书，这一机制在比特币诞生之际就已被设计好。

The “50-per-cent” is a unique distribution mechanism for Bitcoin. According to the Bitcoin White Paper issued by Bintco’s creator at the end of 2008, this mechanism was designed when Bitcoin was born.

按照白皮书构想，比特币总量2100万枚，为了刺激挖矿，初始挖矿每个区块奖励50枚比特币（比特币网络可自行动态调整难度，控制其约10分钟产生一个区块）。每挖出210000个区块（大约4年时间），奖励就降低一半。

As envisaged in the White Paper, there are 21 million bitcoins in total and, in order to stimulate mining, each block of the initial mine is rewarded with 50 bitcoins (the Bitcoin network can adjust its own dynamic difficulties and control it for about 10 minutes to produce a block). For every 210,000 blocks (about four years), the incentive is reduced by half.

区块链浏览器BTC.com信息显示，2009年1月9日，区块高度为1的史上首个比特币区块被挖出，当时奖励为50枚比特币。

Information from block chain browser BTC.com indicates that on 9 January 2009, the first bitcoin block in history with a block height of 1 was excavated with a reward of 50 bitcoins.

2012年11月28日，区块高度为210000的比特币区块被挖出，比特币至此开启第一次奖励减半，从210000高度及以后，比特币网络区块奖励由50枚降为25枚。在2016年7月10日，区块高度为420000的比特币区块被挖出，比特币开启第二次奖励减半，从420000高度及以后，比特币网络区块奖励由25枚降为12.5枚。

On 28 November 2012, a bitcoin block with a height of 210,000 was excavated, and the Bitcoin first prize was halved from 210,000 to 25 after. On 10 July 2016, a bitcoin block with a height of 420,000 was excavated, and the Bitcoin second reward was halved from 420,000 to 12.5 thereafter.

到2020年5月12日凌晨，开启比特币网络第三次奖励减半。据虚拟货币数据网数据，截至本次减半，总量为2100万枚的比特币，已被挖出超1824万，可见大部分已被挖出。按此机制，约121年后，也就是2140年，2100万个比特币将被开采完毕。

In the early hours of May 12, 2020, the third award for the launch of the Bitcoin network was halved. According to the Virtual Currency Data Network, by this time, a total of 21 million bitcoins had been halved, and more than 18.24 million bitcoins had been excavated, and most of them had been excavated. Under this mechanism, some 121 years later, in 2140, 21 million bitcoins would have been mined.

由于总量恒定，奖励减半，意味着投入市场中的比特币数量减少，这进一步增加了比特币的稀缺性。以往，比特币发生的前两次减半，均引起比特币价格的暴涨。

By reducing the number of bitcoins in the market, as a result of consistent aggregates, incentives are reduced by half, which further increases the scarcity of bitcoins. In the past, the first two halves of bitcoins occurred, causing the price of bitcoins to rise sharply.

利好矿机圈？

Good Mineral Circles?

比特币减半，直接受到影响的是比特币矿工。按照以往数据计算，矿工通常将资金投入到比特币挖矿设备、设施扩建和电费支出之后，需要18个月才能达到收支平衡。

It takes 18 months to achieve a balance of payments, according to previous data, after the miners have invested in bitcoin mining equipment, facilities expansion, and electricity bills.

比特币减半将直接影响他们的收入，但在市场看来，这也为矿机圈带来了新的机遇。

The halving of Bitcoin will have a direct impact on their income, but in the market view it also presents new opportunities for the mineral ring.

中国通信工业协会区块链专委会副主任于佳宁在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，从短期看，比特币产量减半的直接影响是“挖矿”收益减少了一半，一部分能耗较高的旧矿机、非专业矿场会被逐步淘汰。比特币矿业将走向专业化、精细化、高效能运营新阶段，这将是一个“去产能”和“提质增效”的过程。

In an interview with Economic Reporters for the 21st Century, the Deputy Director of the District Chain Committee of the China Communications Industry Association stated that, in the short term, the direct impact of halving Bitcoin production was a reduction in “mining” revenues by half, and that some of the older and unprofessional mines with higher energy consumption would be phased out. The Bitcoin mines would move to a new phase of specialization, fine-tuning, and efficient operation, which would be a process of “de-production” and “upgrading efficiency”.

他进一步指出，从之前两次产量减半经验看，在减产后比特币全网算力会明显下降。但是，比特币矿业网络有自我调整的机制，会根据“挖矿”算力变化调整难度系数，进而实现新的平衡。随着能耗更低的新矿机广泛投入市场，全网算力也会在几个月内恢复增长。

He further noted that, based on the two previous experiences of halving production, the full net capacity of bitcoins would decline significantly after the birth. But, with the mechanism of self-regulating the Bitcoin mining network, the difficulty factor would be adjusted in the light of changes in the “mining” factor, leading to a new balance.

而减产后形成的矿机替代潮将是矿机厂商的一个重要增长机会。但是由于矿工对于矿机的能耗、故障率会更加重视，在接下来的时间内对于矿机厂商的品控、产能有更高的要求，因此减产会在一定程度上重塑矿机市场格局。

Substitution is an important growth opportunity for miners. But, because miners will pay more attention to the energy consumption and failure rates of miners, and they will have higher requirements for the control and production of miners over the coming period, reducing production will, to some extent, reshape the market patterns of miners.

这让人联想到近日因内部控制权引起关注的矿机龙头比特大陆，如果这一轮比特币行情继续上扬，对屡屡上市受挫的比特大陆是否是一个利好？

This brings to mind the recent history of Bitcoin, which has raised concerns about the right to internal control, and whether this round of Bitcoin would be a good thing for the frustrated Bitcoins, if it continued to rise.

对此，一位资深区块链研究专家对21世纪经济报道记者分析认为，目前新一代矿机19nm已经出来了，旧的S9正在淘汰，这对于矿机厂商是利好，但比特大陆是不是最大受益者，目前并不确定。

In response, a senior block chain research expert, analysing economic reporting in the twenty-first century, concluded that a new generation of miners, now 19 nm, was out and that the old S9 was being phased out, which would be good for miners, but that it was uncertain whether the continent was the largest beneficiary.

比特币减半行情缘何惨淡？

What's so bad about halving bitcoin?

不同于前两次，第三次比特币减半虽然带来了两个月的猛涨，但就在此次减半前两天，还曾发生半小时暴跌1000美元事件。减半发生后，也只是小幅回升，这超出了不少投资人的预期。

Unlike the previous two, the third halving of the bitcoin, which brought about a two-month surge, was followed by an half-hour drop of $1,000 just two days before the halving. After the halving, it was only a small upturn, which exceeded the expectations of many investors.

于佳宁对此表示，由于比特币产量减半是确定性的事项，可以被充分预期，因此短期影响已经提前反映在比特币价格中。但值得注意的是，挖矿成本并不是决定比特币市场价格的核心要素，市场供求关系变化才主要影响市场走势。因此，在减半后没有立即出现价格上涨也是正常情况。

However, it is worth noting that the cost of mining is not a central factor in determining the price of the Bitcoin market, and that changes in market supply and demand have largely influenced market trends. Therefore, it is normal that price increases do not occur immediately after halving.

他进一步指出，在宏观的大类资产中，比特币目前仍然是相对小众、市值相对较小的另类资产，属于“虚拟商品”，波动率相对较高，加之全球范围内衍生品的普及和运用，在一定程度上放大了风险。

He further noted that, of the macro-class assets, Bitcoin was still a relatively small, market-valued alternative, a “virtual commodity” with a relatively high volatility rate, and that the spread and use of derivatives at the global level had increased the risk to some extent.

前述资深区块链研究专家则表示，不同于前两次减半，目前比特币市场交易人群和交易手段都有了很大变化。以前，交易的主要人群为矿工，现在，比特币交易人群更加多元化，矿工交易比重下降，矿工对比特币价格的影响力也减弱了很多。加上合约市场兴起，期货等交易形式热度不断增加，这些衍生品交易量占比的增加对于价格形成机制也发挥了很大作用。因为比特币市场目前已经和其他金融市场表现具备了强相关性，叠加近期疫情对全球金融市场流动性的影响，比特币价格也出现波动。

The above-mentioned senior block chain research experts say that unlike the previous two halves, the number of people trading in the Bitcoin market and the means of doing business have changed considerably. Previously, the majority of traders were miners, now more diversified, the proportion of miners trading in bitcoin has declined, and the influence of mineral traders on the price of bitcoins has diminished considerably.

在于佳宁看来，虽然目前出现短期波动，但从长期看，比特币产量减半还将在未来两到三年内对市场价格走势产生持续影响。产量减半使得比特币新增供给量减少，进入更加稀缺的阶段，而这种稀缺性的长期影响较大。比特币也是各类数字资产的“一般等价物”，长期观之，随着区块链技术应用加快，“数字资产化”和“资产数字化”进程加快，数字资产在全球范围内更加普及。因此，这种供求关系的变化会在未来两到三年内逐步显现。

In Janin's view, despite the current short-term fluctuations, the halving of Bitcoin production will have a sustained impact on market price trends in the longer term over the next two to three years. The halving of production has reduced the volume of new bitcoin supplies into a more scarce phase, and the long-term impact of this scarcity is greater. Bitcoin is also a “general equivalent” of various types of digital assets, and, in the longer term, digital assets are becoming more widespread worldwide as the application of block-chain technology accelerates and the “digitization” and “digitization” of assets accelerates.

但他也提示，即使存在长期趋势，价格波动率仍将保持较高水平，投资者应充分认识到市场风险，时刻注意控制风险，尤其对于杠杆和衍生品的运用要非常谨慎。

He cautioned, however, that, even with long-term trends, price volatility would remain high and investors should be fully aware of market risks and be vigilant in controlling them, especially with regard to leverage and derivatives.

作者：侯潇怡

Author: Xiao Qiao Yi