原创 锌刻度 锌刻度
Original, zinc scale, zinc scale.
每日一篇科技财经深度调查
A daily in-depth science and finance survey.
走进商业背后的故事
The story behind the business.
逃离币圈或许是最佳策略
Escaping the currency may be the best strategy.
撰文/ 陈邓新
Author/ Chen Dengxin
编辑/ 孟会缘
Editor/ Meng Ribbon
币圈，凛冬已至。
Currency rings, winter has arrived.
前不久，比特币兑美元一度跌穿1.8万美元关口，之后虽然有所反弹却颇为弱势，持续在2万美元上下震荡。
Not long ago, Bitcoin fell through the $18,000 threshold against the United States dollar, and after that, the rebound was weak and sustained a shock of $20,000 up and down.
比特币暴跌也重创了整个虚拟货币市场，币圈的悲观情绪不断蔓延。
The collapse of bitcoin has also hit the virtual currency market as a whole, and pessimism in the currency circles is spreading.
更为糟糕的是，熊市的预期之下，遭遇当头棒喝的Z世代似乎不再相信币圈的繁华，用实际行动抛弃“比特币们”。
Worse still, under the expectations of the Bear City, it appears that the Z generation, who had been drinking on the head, no longer believed in the size of the currency circle and abandoned the “bitcoins” with practical action.
币圈，已无人抄底？
The ring. No one's copying it?
“币圈赚钱币圈花，一分别想带回家”
"The ring of coins wants to bring home one at a time."
坐标苏州的黄振，是一名“95后”都市白领，一个月到手几千元，但原生家庭的底子薄，买房结婚成为一种奢望。
It is a “post-95” urban white collar with thousands of dollars a month, but the base of the original family is thin and the buying of a house becomes a luxury.
转折出现在2020年7月，黄振被一个朋友拉入某理财群，里面聊得热火朝天，半天功夫不到就上千条记录，“比特币牛市是不是来了”成为群话题的焦点。
In July 2020, Huang Jin was dragged into a pool of money by a friend who talked so much that he couldn't get more than a thousand records, and “Is Bitcoin’s Cow Here” became the focus of the discussion.
从无动于衷到激情澎湃，仅仅不到半年。
From indifference to passion, it's just under six months.
在比特币上赚到第一桶金之后，黄振有了微妙的变化，“炒币最大的问题是将人变成鬼，来钱真的太快了，再也瞧不起手中几千元的月薪，也没有心思好好打工，更不可能去惦记升职加薪了。”
After making the first barrel of gold on Bitcoin, the biggest problem for the Huang Jin was to turn people into ghosts, to pay too quickly, to lose sight of the thousands of dollars a month in hand and not to work properly, much less to think about promotions and salary increases.
如此一来，黄振对比特币有了更高的期许。
In this way, the yellow vibrate has a higher promise.
而中国人民大学国际货币研究所副所长向松祚2021年1月21日表示：“比特币之所以涨这么高，就是因为量有限，如果大家可以无限地挖出来，而不是2100多万枚，比特币今天的价格就不会这么高。”
The Deputy Director of the International Monetary Institute of the People's University of China stated to Matsugi on 21 January 2021 that “the price of Bitcoin today would not be so high if it could be dug up indefinitely instead of more than 21 million”.
听到专家的言论，黄振一改之前的谨慎，辞职并All IN比特币，并向女友许诺赚了大钱就买房结婚。
After hearing the expert's remarks, he was cautious before he changed his position, resigned and promised All Inbitcoin to his girlfriend to buy a house and get married.
世事难料，比特币曾经有多风光，如今就有多落魄。
It's hard to tell how well bitcoin was and how bad it is now.
进入2022年之后，下跌成为币圈的关键词，这其中比特币的总市值缩水近70%，“打开APP一看，好家伙，这哪是比特币要不行了，这是我要不行了啊！”
After entering 2022, it fell into the key word of the currency circle, where the total market value of bitcoins shrinks by almost 70%, and "Open APPs, good man, this is not gonna work for bitcoins, that's what I'm gonna do!"
比特币的双重顶已现
Bitcoin's double dome is up.
不妙的是，非但之前赚的钱全部赔进去，反而负债累累亚历山大，从吃着火锅唱着歌的愉悦到四面楚歌的悲凉，不到一年的光景。
What is not good is that instead of paying for all the money that was earned earlier, Alexander was heavily indebted, from the joy of eating the pot of fire and singing songs to the sadness of singing in the shadows for less than a year.
“币圈赚钱币圈花，一分别想带回家。”黄振如是说。
"The coin rings make money, and they want to take them home." As the Yellow Jin said.
黄振告诉锌刻度，负债之后频频跟女友吵架，最终不欢而散，如今经常自言自语、夜里翻来覆去睡不着，后悔没有早点走出贪婪的围城：“如果没有去乱炒的话，日子也还算自在，大不了回县城买房。”
Huang Xin told Zinc at the same time that debt was often fought with his girlfriend and ended up in discomfort, that he could not sleep at night, and regretted that he had not been able to get out of the covetous siege sooner: “If he had not gone to war, the day would have been easy and would have been too long to go back to the county city to buy a house.”
事实上，黄振的遭遇并非个例。
In fact, it is not an example of what has happened to Huang Zhen.
微博的“币圈崩盘”话题阅读量高达2.7亿次，不少人痛心疾首地表示钱包清零，市场可谓哀嚎遍野。
On Twitter, the topic of “coin swings” was read 270 million times, and many people lamented the fact that their wallets were empty and the market was so sad.
一名私募人士告诉锌刻度：“从技术看，比特币已进入熊市，逃离才是上策，抄底可能变成‘没命人’。”
A private recruit told Zini scale: “Technologically, Bitcoin has entered Bear City, escape is the best way to escape, and the copy may turn into a `dead man'.”
“已经没有人喊抄底了，Game Over”
"No one's shouting, Game Over" .
与黄振不同，韩轩祎对币圈的理解更为深刻。
Unlike Huang Zhen, Han has a deeper understanding of the currency circles.
作为一名IT从业者，韩轩祎早早就知晓虚拟货币的本质为“共识”，并无实际的流通价值与收藏价值，但这并不妨碍其入场。
As an IT practitioner, Han Yong knew early on that the essence of a virtual currency was a “consensus”, with no real circulation or collection value, but this did not prevent its entry.
“不认同去中心化有多伟大，也不认可哈希算法有多牛，更不相信所谓的稀缺性。”韩轩祎依然选择梭哈，“都知道中头彩的几率微乎其微，为什么还有人去买？一个道理呀，不管你承不承认，币圈永远不缺一夜暴富的故事，这也是普通人逆天改命最快的捷径了。”
“Doesn't agree with the greatness of decentralisation, nor does it recognize the greatness of Hashi's algorithm, nor does it believe in the so-called scarcity.” Han Xiao, who still chooses So-ho, “knows that the odds are minimal, why does anyone buy it? One thing, whether you admit it or not, is that currency circles are never short of the one-night rich story, which is the fastest way for ordinary people to change their lives.”
简而言之，博傻才是币圈的底色。
In short, fools are the bottom of the currency circle.
据百度百科显示，博傻理论是指在资本市场中，人们之所以完全不管某个东西的真实价值而愿意花高价购买，是因为他们预期会有一个更大的笨蛋会花更高的价格从他们那儿把它买走。
According to encyclopedia, the theory of stupidity refers to the fact that in capital markets people are willing to buy something at a higher price because they expect a bigger fool to buy it from them at a higher price.
而链向财经的创始人李雄曾有言：“投资比特币就像开捷达，投资山寨币就像开跑车、飞机，后者更快、更刺激。”
And Lee Hsien, the founder of the book, once said, “Investing in bitcoin is like Katada, investing in mountain coins is like running cars, airplanes, and the latter is faster and more exciting.”
于是乎，韩轩祎热衷买卖山寨币，多年以来屡屡在刀口舔血，经验颇为丰富，更是提前预测了这波虚拟货币行情，“从历史规律来看，每次比特币产量减半，都会诱发一波上涨行情，从而引起币圈共振”。
As a result, Han Xin was keen to buy and sell mountain coins, licking blood for many years, with considerable experience, and predicting this virtual currency in advance, “by historical law, every time bitcoin production is reduced by half, it triggers a wave of upturns, which triggers a resonance of the currency circle”.
前十大虚拟货币
Top ten virtual currencies.
猜中了开头，却没有猜中结尾。
The beginning was struck, but not the end.
韩轩祎没有想到的是，比特币盛极而衰来得这么快，拖累虚拟货币整体崩盘，“买在无人问津处，卖在人声鼎沸时，说起容易做起难，你怎么知道何时是鼎沸？行业的共识难道不是比特币要上16万美元吗？”
What Han didn't think was that bitcoin had fallen so fast, dragged down the virtual currency as a whole, and said, "How do you know when it's boiling when it's easy to sell when it's unattended? Isn't the industry's consensus $160,000 for bitcoin?"
路径依赖之下，韩轩祎在下跌过程中并未及时收手，反而多次抄底，寄望后续再起波澜，可事实是一跌再跌。
With the path dependent, Han Xin did not stop in time during the fall, but instead took a number of downsides and looked forward to a return of the tide, but the fact was that he fell again and again.
韩轩祎告诉锌刻度其已斩仓蛰伏：“之前一跌，大家就喊抄底，抄底十之八九是赚的，现在被多次毒打之后，已经没有人喊抄底了，这说明什么？Game Over！”
Han Dynasty told Zindu that he was in a state of disarray: “What does it mean, that when you fall, everyone shouts, and then 10 octies are earned, and now that you've been beaten so many times, no one shouts? Game Over!”
那么，币圈为何突然就偃旗息鼓了？
So, why is the currency all of a sudden in the air?
对此，知乎网友“骄傲的鱼”一针见血地指出：“美联储大放水的时候，什么都可以炒，就是地里挖出块石头，轮流叫高价，也能炒上天，重要的是石头吗？它只不过是博弈的工具罢了。现在美联储加息收水了，能拿来博弈的资金减少，石头自然又变回了石头。”
In this connection, it is clear to our friends, the proud fish, that: "When the Feds pour water, they can fire anything. They dig up a rock in the ground, call it a high price, and they can fire the sky." What's important is that it's just a tool for games. Now that the Fed collects water, the money for games is reduced, and the rocks turn back to stone."
而区块链开发者吴风令告诉锌刻度：“情况不妙的时候，风险大的资产会先被抛售，比特币也是风险资产，根本不是什么避险资产，那纯粹是忽悠人的。”
And the block chain developer, Go Fung, told Zini scale: “When things are bad, high-risk assets will be sold first, and Bitcoin will be a risky asset, and it's not a safe asset at all, it's simply a lie.”
漏洞攻击100%可控链，虚拟货币没有未来？
需要注意的是，炒币亏损的不仅仅是个人，许多机构也未能幸免。
It is important to note that it is not just individuals who have lost money, but many institutions have not been spared.
譬如，特斯拉在2021年2月购入价值15亿美元，单价约为34000美元/枚，以此推算特斯拉炒币亏损逾40%。
For example, Tesla purchased $1.5 billion in February 2021, with a unit price of approximately $34,000/me, to calculate a loss of more than 40 per cent of Tesla's currency.
再譬如，美图公司2021年3月至4月，累计购买31000枚以太币及940.89枚比特币，对应总价分别为5050万美元和4950万美元，以此推算美图炒币亏损逾50%。
For example, between March and April 2021, Merit purchased a cumulative total of 31,000 in taels and 940.89 in bitcoins for a total value of $50.5 million and $49.5 million, respectively, thereby extrapolating a loss of more than 50 per cent of the United States dollar.
炒币失败雪上加霜
It's worse than the failure of the coins.
此背景下，币圈的萎缩肉眼可见。
In this context, the currency circle's shrinking eyes are visible.
据公开资料显示，美国最大加密货币交易平台Coinbase于2022年6月14日宣布在全球裁员18%，而BlockFi、Crypto.com、Gemini、Buenbit等交易平台也有大规模裁员计划。
According to public sources, Coinbase, the largest encrypted currency trading platform in the United States, announced a global lay-off of 18 per cent on 14 June 2022, while other trading platforms, such as BlockFi, Crypto.com, Gemini and Buenbit, also have large-scale downsizing plans.
更为关键的是，虚拟货币的外部压力不断加大。
More critically, external pressures on virtual currencies are increasing.
一方面，各国央行都在研究法定数字货币，渴望通过数字货币降低交易成本，提升金融运行效率，防范洗钱等非法活动，在未来或限制比特币等虚拟货币的应用场景以及投资范围，从而降低其共识价值。
On the one hand, central banks are studying the statutory digital currency, eager to reduce transaction costs through digital currency, improve financial efficiency, prevent illegal activities such as money-laundering, and limit the future or limit the application of virtual currency such as Bitcoin and the scope of investment, thereby reducing its consensual value.
美国财政部部长珍妮特·耶伦曾表示：“我们必须仔细研究如何鼓励将虚拟货币用于合法活动，同时减少将其用于恶性和非法活动。如果得到确认，我打算与联邦储备委员会以及其他联邦银行和证券监管机构紧密合作，以期为这些及其他金融科技创新实施有效的监管框架。”
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen once said: “We have to look carefully at ways to encourage the use of virtual money for legitimate activities while reducing its use for malicious and illegal activities. If confirmed, I intend to work closely with the Federal Reserve Commission and other federal banks and securities regulators with a view to implementing an effective regulatory framework for these and other financial science, technology and innovation.”
另外一方面，针对虚拟货币的漏洞研究更为透彻。
On the other hand, there is a more thorough study of loopholes in virtual currencies.
知名白帽tombkeeper表示：“懂一点区块链的可能都知道‘51%攻击’，就是说除非能控制一半以上的节点，否则区块链都是安全的。2022年我们报告了某个币的 RCE 漏洞，可以在几十分钟内控制该币的所有节点——也就是说，不止51%，而是100%控制整个链，成为上帝。”
The famous white cap tombkeeper says, "A little bit of the block chain might know '51% attack', meaning that the block chain is safe unless it controls more than half of the nodes. In 2022, we reported an RCE gap in a currency that can control all the nodes of that currency in a matter of minutes -- that is, more than 51%, but 100% control the whole chain and become God."
这意味着，虚拟货币的底层逻辑存在被颠覆的可能。
This means that there is a risk that the underlying logic of virtual currency may be subverted.
总而言之，随着虚拟货币牛转熊大局已定，越亏越多成为币圈的常态，抄底不再是“富贵险中求”的捷径，反而成为“倾家荡产”的枷锁。
All in all, with the virtual currency turning the corner, the more it becomes the currency circle, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the shorter it is, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes, the more it becomes.
那么，逃离币圈或许是最佳策略。
Well, getting away from the currency may be the best strategy.
（应受访者要求，文中黄振、韩轩祎均为化名）
(At the request of the interviewer, Wang Jing and Han Xin are aliases)
END
陈邓新
Chen Dong-sung.
邮箱：cdx@cpcw.com
Mailbox: cdx@cpcw.com
简介：投资改变生活
Introduction: Investing in change of life
重点关注领域：上市公司、新能源
Areas of focus: listed companies, new energy sources
锌刻度
Zinc scale
每日一篇科技财经深度调查
A daily in-depth science and finance survey.
原标题：《Z世代，正在抛弃“比特币们”？》
Original title: "Z Generation, Abandoning the Bitcoins? "
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