2亿元吃一个披萨，你愿意吗？Laszlo Hanyecz在花费一万个比特币购买了一个披萨时，他绝对没想到，比特币有一天会这么火。自5月份以来，比特币币价就开始了一段近乎于疯狂的上升，从7900元一路涨到了现在的2万元。
Two hundred million dollars for a pizza, would you like? Laszlo Hanyecz bought a pizza at a cost of 10,000 bitcoin, and he never thought that bitcoin would be so hot someday. Since May, bitcoin prices have been rising from $7,900 to the current 20,000.
目前最新的消息是，国内三大比特币平台火币网、OKCoin、比特币中国都已经相继恢复了比特币提现业务。这是继今年1月，央行对数字货币交易平台进行系统整顿以来，三大交易平台首次开放比特币、莱特币提现。
The latest news is that the country’s three main Bitcoin platforms, OKCoin, and Bitcoin China have all resumed their operations successively. This is the first time that the three trading platforms opened up for Bitcoin and Letcoin, following the central bank’s systematic overhaul of the Digital Currency Trading Platform in January this year.
虽然币价疯涨，监管看起来也还算温和，但是仍然有3个问题摆在比特币和它的跟随者面前：
Although currency prices have soared and regulation seems moderate, there are still three questions before Bitcoin and its followers:
1、影响币价上涨的因素到底是什么？
1. What are the factors that influence the rise in currency prices?
2、比特币真的是一种合格的投资品？
2-bitcoin is really a good investment?
3、比特币隐藏的风险有多大？
What is the risk of Bitcoin hiding?
从不值钱到买不起能有多远？
How far can it be from being worthless to being unable to afford it?
比特币的概念最初由中本聪（目前未找到本人）在2009年提出，于2013年开始逐渐被人们所熟悉。就像本文开头所说，比特币在最开始不被认可的时候几乎不值钱，而在2013年这一年的时间里，币价则从0飞涨到了8000元，瞬间掀起了一股比特币投资的热潮。也是在那时，有一部分人提出了这样一个假设——比特币可以取代现行法币成为全世界范围内的流通货币。
The concept of Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 by Nakamoto (who has not been found at the present time) and began to become familiar in 2013. As stated at the beginning of this paper, bitcoin was almost worthless when it was first rejected, while in 2013 the currency rose from zero to 8,000 dollars, sparking a sudden surge in bitcoin investment.
（图片、数据来源火币网）
随后，比特币从2014年至今先后迎来了三波大涨，分别是在2014年5月、2016年6月和2017年1月。这三次的背景情况是这样的：
The three subsequent waves of Bitcoin rose from 2014 to the present, in May 2014, June 2016 and January 2017. The background to these three events is as follows:
第一次：准确来说应该是2014年5月和6月。对于比特币而言，2014年应该是它跃入公众视野后最难熬的一年。不论是Mt.gox公司（当时全球最大的比特币交易所）的倒闭还是各国对比特币的强监管态度，都让币价低沉到了极点，最惨的时候甚至跌到1000元/个。
For Bitcoin, 2014 should be the hardest year since it jumped into public view. Whether the collapse of Mt. Gox (the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange at the time) or the strong regulatory attitude of various countries’ Bitcoin has caused currency prices to sink to an extreme level, and even to drop to $1,000 in the worst of times.
分析认为，本轮比特币价格上涨的原因是人们对于比特币的认知逐渐提升，而当时主流投资市场疲软，比特币被人们当做避险资产购买，其中大部分的购买方来自中国。
The analysis found that the increase in the price of this round of bitcoin was due to a gradual increase in the perception of bitcoin, when the mainstream investment market was weak and bitcoin was purchased as a hedge asset, most of which came from China.
第二次：2016年6月，英国通过脱欧公投，正式脱离欧盟。当日比特币价格大涨25%，达到4750元。部分人士认为，比特币在本轮上涨中发挥了类似黄金的避险属性，英国脱欧所带来的金融市场不确定性使得人们投身到比特币中来。
另有分析认为，该次比特币价格大涨原因可能是7月比特币区块奖励将减半。部分投资者开始储币以待减半后的大涨。
According to another analysis, the sharp rise in the price of the bitcoin may be due to the fact that the Bitcoin block incentive will be halved in July. Some investors have begun to save their currency until it is halved.
第三次：2017年5月24日，来自全球21个国家的56个数字货币公司就比特币扩容问题达成共识。当日比特币价格价格最低从14400元涨至16651元。业内人士认为，本次比特币扩容共识的达成带动了国内外投资人士的做多情绪，从而带来了一波大涨行情。
另外，从比特币以往的价格波动中还可以发现，国际政治、人民币汇率、外汇政策、灰色产业刚需、黑色产业刚需、区块链技术发展、大国央行态度均会对币价造成一定程度上的影响，并没有一个特别稳定和可以确定的因素去判断比特币的下一轮走势。
Moreover, from past price fluctuations in Bitcoin, it can be seen that international politics, the renminbi exchange rate, foreign exchange policies, the need for grey industries, the need for black industries, the technological development of block chains, and the attitude of large central banks all have a certain impact on currency prices, and there is no particular stability and certainty to judge the next round of Bitcoin.
比特币=数字黄金？一种新的避险投资品？
bitcoin=digital gold? A new risk-free investment?
在上一节中可以发现，三次币价大涨的过程中，比特币在一定程度上均是扮演了避险产品的角色。
As can be seen from the previous section, in the course of three large increases in currency prices, bitcoin played a role in some extent as a hedge product.
在某种程度上，比特币可以去充当投资品。比特币自身的稀缺性、不可复制性、知名度、流通性及其特有的信任机制，这些都克服收藏品在鉴别、估价、流通和信任上的难题。 比特币用难以破解的数学加密算法保证唯一性；通过分布式共识算法得到全网认定，解决信任问题；同时比特币市场价格透明公开；其数字货币的形式在流通和交易极其便利。说到这里，不得不提的就是比特币的匿名性。如果一款投资品可以自由的在黑市流通，变成勒索、洗黑钱、买卖军火毒品等犯罪的工具。那么，它会被如何对待呢？
Bitcoin, to some extent, can be an investment. Bitcoin’s own scarcity, non-repetition, visibility, circulation, and its unique trust mechanisms overcome the difficulties of identifying, valuing, circulating, and trusting the collection.
单纯从上文来看，比特币或许可以算作是一种还算合格的投资品。但是要说能做到“乱世黄金，盛世古董”这个级别，或许还差了点火候。
From this point of view alone, bitcoin may be considered a well-qualified investment. But it may be a bit short of a fire to be able to achieve the level of “gold in the world, antiques”.
所以，比特币是唯一的“投资神话”？
So, Bitcoin is the only investment myth?
当然，这个小标题是开玩笑的，毕竟上一个这么说的是郁金香（滑稽脸）。
Of course, this subheading is a joke, after all, the last one is tulip.
目前，比特币之所以火热一方面是它的确为金融市场带来了技术和思想上的变革，而另一方面则是成千上万的投资者支持。由于比特币拥有自己的流通网络，它的确可以保证自身和“神话”一样流传下去，但是谁说神话就可以永流传的呢？
At present, Bitcoin is hot because, on the one hand, it does bring technological and intellectual change to financial markets, and on the other hand, thousands of investors support it. Because Bitcoin has its own network of circulation, it does ensure that it continues as myths, but who can say myths forever?
事实上，风头正劲的比特币下面还隐藏着不少风险。比如：
In fact, there are a lot of risks hidden under the hot bitcoin. For example:
1、监管不确定性。虽然比特币流通网络是“不死”的，但比特币交易平台还是要接受来自监管部门的监管。如果监管部门加压，则可能重创交易平台，甚至导致平台的倒闭。零壹财经分析师郭竞认为，由于比特币价格飞涨，导致参与者迅速增加，而在比特币交易领域，由于没有完善的监管办法和交易规则，极易出现外部性风险（系统性风险）。
1, regulatory uncertainty. , although the Bitcoin circulation network is “non-dead”, the Bitcoin trading platform is subject to regulation from the regulatory sector. If the regulatory sector pressurizes it, it may seriously damage the trading platform, or even lead to its collapse.
当然，在监管封杀的情况下，投资还可以通过场外交易的方式来继续维持市场。届时比特币是否还会坚挺下去，还是个未知数。
Of course, in the case of regulatory closures, investment can also continue to maintain the market through off-the-shelf transactions. Whether Bitcoin will be strong or uncertain at that time.
2、竞争币风险。现有的竞争币包括莱特币、以太币、无限币等等。据统计，市场上有3694种不同的数字货币，未来也有可能在其中出现一匹黑马来打破比特币独占鳌头的局面。当然，这个可能性只是存在，并不会特别高。
2, competitive currency risk. ’s current competitive currencies include, for example, Lightcoin, Ethercopics, Unlimited Currency, etc. According to statistics, there are 3,694 different digital currencies on the market in which a black horse may emerge in the future to break the Bitcoin monopoly. Of course, this possibility exists only and is not particularly high.
3、技术风险。现在比特币得以稳定的基础是区块链加密等技术，又有谁可以保证以后不会有新的技术可以破解它？点石资产创始人蔡凯龙认为，一旦区块链加密被破解，比特币机制就无法运行，这将会是对比特币的致命一击，比特币价值瞬间化为乌有，一切归零。
3, technology risks. now that Bitcoin has been stabilized is based on techniques such as block chain encryption. Who can guarantee that no new technology will ever break it?
4、杠杆风险。据媒体报道，在比特币交易中有投资者会采取杠杆交易的方式，包括做多、做空，行业内普遍杠杆倍数约在3倍左右，最大杠杆为5倍左右。高杠杆带来了高收益的同时，一旦比特币价格出现大幅波动，则有很多投资者可能会出现爆仓的情况。
4, leverage risk. , according to media reports, in bitcoin transactions, investors would use leverage, including more, more, more, more, less, and more than three times more commonly in the industry, with a maximum leverage of five times more.
5、能源风险。作家克里斯托弗·马尔默指出，比特币的发展并不利于环保，会造成巨大的能源损耗。在最不乐观的情况下，到2020年，比特币网络的耗电量将达到丹麦整个国家的水平。有媒体报道，一个比特币“矿场”仅仅一天就会用掉16.8万度电。如果按照目前的态势继续增长，由于挖矿难度的提升（比特币数量变少），矿机在未来的消耗极有可能继续增长，到时“矿工”们又将何去何从？
5, energy risks. writer Christopher Malmö notes that the development of Bitcoin is not environmentally friendly and will cause huge energy losses. In the least optimistic scenario, by 2020, the Bitcoin network will have reached the level of power in Denmark as a whole. There are media reports that a Bitcoin “mine” will use only 168,000 degrees of electricity in one day. If it continues to grow according to current trends, it is highly likely that miners will continue to grow in the future because of the increased difficulty of mining (the smaller number of bitcoins).
按照目前比特币的发展情况来看，世界各国更加看好的是比特币的底层技术——区块链。在下一步，可能会出现的情况是：一些经济崩溃的国家（例如委内瑞拉）会利用比特币来勉强维持自己的金融经济体系；一些国家会利用区块链技术研究自己的数字货币，发行自己的数字货币以稳定数字货币市场；一些中立的国家则会将比特币作为一种商品，仅仅将之作为一种投资品，而非货币来引入。
According to current developments in bitcoin, the world looks much better at bitcoin’s bottom technology – the block chain. In the next step, it is likely that some countries with failed economies (e.g. Venezuela) will use bitcoin to barely maintain their financial system; some countries will use block-chain technology to study their digital currencies and issue their own digital currencies to stabilize the digital currency market; and some neutral countries will introduce bitcoin as a commodity, merely as an investment, rather than a currency.
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