元宇宙，正成为时下最俏的话题。在一众互联网圈或是创投圈里，开口不谈元宇宙，“冲浪”百年也枉然。上一次引发如此声势的，还是区块链。
The meta-cosmos is becoming the most interesting topic of the time. In a world of Internet circles or creative circles, talking about the meta-cosmos is just a hundred years of surfing. The last time it started, it was a block chain.
如果想到2018年的“三点钟区块链”事件，我们不难发现，元宇宙虽然披着全新的皮囊，但它的走红逻辑，是与区块链一脉相承的。
If we think of the "three o'clock block chain" event in 2018, it is easy to find that the Woncosmos, while wearing a brand-new leather bag, has a red logic that is linked to the chain of blocks.
这不，区块链走红的2018年，被称为“区块链元年”，而当下的2021年，又被称为“元宇宙元年”。历数这些年，有VR之元年、物联网之元年、5G之元年……
No, the chain of blocks is red in 2018, known as the Year of the Block Chain, and the current year 2021, also known as the Year of the Woncosmos. The calendar years are the Year of VR, the Year of Material Networking, the Year of the 5G.
噱头过于多，年份不够用，这是互联网的奇观。元宇宙这一概念的走红，一定程度上意味着，互联网行业已经逐步进入存量竞争的阶段，资本开始寻找下一个“风口”。以Facebook为代表的公司，将元宇宙视为互联网的下一个阶段，以期在其中得到新的增量发展空间。
There are too many headlines and not enough years, which is the wonder of the Internet. The notion of the meta-cosmos has, to some extent, meant that the Internet industry has gradually entered the stage of stock competition, and capital has begun to look for the next “windlight.” The company, represented by Facebook, sees the meta-cosmos as the next phase of the Internet, with a view to gaining new incremental development space.
那么，元宇宙究竟能不能成为下一代互联网？
So, does Yuan cosmos ever become the next generation of the Internet?
元宇宙是什么
所以，元宇宙最表层的意思，是指“超越现实宇宙的另一个宇宙”，又或者说，是“平行与现实宇宙的另一个宇宙”，简称为“平行宇宙”，科幻感更强。 So the bottom layer of the meta-cosmos means “another universe beyond the real universe” or, alternatively, “another universe in parallel with the real universe”, called “parallel universe”, with a stronger sense of science fiction. 回到我们的现实生活中，大家对元宇宙其实也还没有达成共识。 Back in our real life, there is no real consensus on the meta-cosmos. 在这方面，元宇宙与区块链，两者相似度之高，活脱脱是一对双胞胎。它们都在一夜之间成为“顶流”，这就导致，在概念红火之际，人人引颈相望，但还没有人说得清楚，它们究竟是什么？ In this respect, the meta-cosm and the chain of blocks are so similar that liberation is a pair of twins. They all become a “top stream” overnight, which leads everyone to look at each other at the moment of conceptual fire, but it is not clear what they are. 但是在明星效应上，元宇宙作为后来者，显然是后浪推前浪。 But in the case of the star effect, it is clear that the Yuan cosmos, as a latecomer, is behind the tide. 回顾2018年，区块链走红时，拥趸的多是江湖草莽。到了元宇宙，它在元年里就迎来了数位大佬站台。 Looking back in 2018, when the block chain was red, the crowds were rash. When it came to the Woncos, it came to the station of several big guys in the year. 最大的大佬，自然是扎克伯格。 The biggest big guy, naturally, is Zuckerberg. 北京时间10月29日，扎克伯格创办的社交网络巨头Facebook宣布，公司将更名为“META”，与此同时，还为观众展示了元宇宙的发展蓝图。 On 29 October, Beijing time, the social networking giant Facebook, founded by Zuckerberg, announced that the company would be renamed “META”, while presenting to the audience a blueprint for the development of the meta-cosmos. 根据Facebook的演示，未来的用户，将可以进入一个完全数字化的世界。在那里，通过元宇宙技术，用户能够突破物理的距离，去身临其境地参加千里之外的一场演唱会，或者聚齐天南地北的朋友。简言之，这是真人版的大型VR/AR社交平台。 According to the Facebook demonstration, future users will be able to enter a completely digital world. There, through meta-cosm technology, users will be able to break physical distances, travel to a concert thousands of miles away, or gather friends north of the sky. In short, this is a big VR/AR social platform for real people. 当然，创造一个“与现实无异”的虚拟世界，并不是扎克伯格全部的野心，这不过是元宇宙的第一步。 Of course, the creation of a virtual world “as opposed to reality” is not the full ambition of Zuckerberg; it is only the first step in the meta-cosm. 在公司更名的创始人信件中，扎克伯格展望说：在元宇宙，你将几乎可以做到你能想到的任何事情，与朋友和家人聚会、工作、学习、玩耍、购物、创造…… In a letter from the founder of the company, Zuckerberg said: "In the Woncos, you will be able to do almost anything you can think of, to meet friends and family, to work, to learn, to play, to shop, to create... 因此，元宇宙最终的追求是，将现实世界和虚拟世界融为一体。 Thus, the ultimate quest of the meta-cosmos is to integrate the real and virtual worlds. 按照设想，在元宇宙技术的时代，只要人们戴上耳机和目镜，找到连接终端，就能够以虚拟分身的方式进入由计算机模拟、与真实世界平行的虚拟空间。 In the era of meta-cosm technology, it is envisaged that as long as people wear headphones and goggles to find a connection terminal, they will be able to access virtual spaces that are simulated by computers and parallel to the real world. 这听上去过于科幻，像是从《雪崩》中复刻而来。 It sounds like science fiction, like coming back from Avalanche. 有趣的是，《雪崩》本是一部反乌托邦题材的小说。这自然不会被扎克伯格的竞争对手错过，早在Facebook传出更名的消息时，Twitter的CEO杰克·多西就嘲笑扎克伯格，称其“反乌托邦”。 Interestingly, Avalanche is an anti-Utopia novel. Naturally, it will not be missed by Zuckerberg’s competitors, as CEO Jack Dossy on Twitter mocked him as “anti-Utopia” when a change of name was posted on Facebook. 在国内，元宇宙的设想也不缺少抵制声。首先是科幻作家刘慈欣，他直言道，扎克伯格的元宇宙不但不是未来，也不该是未来。 At home, there is no lack of resistance to the vision of the Won-Cosmos. First of all, Sci-Fi writer Liu Tsi-Shin, who said to himself, the Zuckerberg Won-Cosmos is not the future, nor should it be the future. 刘慈欣的理由很简单，“元宇宙将是整个人类文明的一次内卷，而内卷的封闭系统的熵值总归是要趋于最大的。所以元宇宙最后就是引导人类走向死路一条。” The simple reason for Liu Xiahin is, "The meta-cosm will be an inner circle of human civilization, and the entropy of the enclosed system will always be the greatest. So the universe will eventually lead mankind to the end of the road." 互联网领域的另一“大佬”、360集团董事长周鸿祎也抱有相似观点，他表示，Facebook的幻想不代表未来，而是代表人类的没落，“如果大家都生活在虚幻的空间里，它不会给人类社会带来真正的发展”。 Another “big man” in the Internet area, the chairman of the 360th Group, Zhou Hongjun, shares the same view, stating that Facebook illusions do not represent the future, but rather the fall of humanity, “if everyone lives in an imaginary space, it will not lead to real development in human society”. 10月29日，扎克伯格创办的社交网络巨头Facebook宣布，公司将更名为“META” On October 29, the social networking giant Facebook, founded by Zuckerberg, announced that the company would change its name to “META” 一揽子概念 strong> package of concepts 刘周二人的话，说是醒世警言也好，危言耸听也罢，但“乌托邦”的梦总是难以浇灭。更何况，对着元宇宙这样宏大的设想，从不会缺乏好事者。 Liu Qiu's words are a wake-up call and a shock call, but the utopian dream is always indelible. Moreover, there is never a shortage of good people for such a grand vision of the meta-cosmos. 硅谷的明星投资人Shaan Puri，曾在10月时总结出一套他自己的“元宇宙观”。经过罗永浩的翻译，这段话成为了元宇宙风口上的滥觞。Shaan Puri发问说，当下对元宇宙的理解，是像电影《头号玩家》似的一个虚拟空间，但这真的是事实吗？ In October, Silicon Valley's star investor, Shaan Puri, summed up his own view of the meta-cosmos. With the translation of Lo Young-ho, this phrase became a mess on the mouth of the meta-cosmos. Shaan Puri asks, is it true that the understanding of the meta-cosmos is a virtual space like the film Player Number One? “元宇宙不是一个空间，它是一个时间。”Shaan Puri的注解，又给元宇宙添上了玄之又玄的一笔。 "The Won-Cosmos is not a space, it's a time." Shaan Puri's note adds a new dimension to the Won-Cosmos. 据他解释说，在人工智能领域，有一个概念叫作“奇点”。意思是说，未来人工智能变得比人类还要聪明的那个时刻。 According to him, in the field of artificial intelligence, there was a concept called “surprisedness”, meaning that the future moment when artificial intelligence became smarter than human beings. 在Shaan Puri看来，元宇宙就是这样一个时刻，“一个我们的数字生活变得比我们的物理生活更有价值的时刻”。 In Shaan Puri's view, the meta-cosmos is one such moment, “a time when our digital life becomes more valuable than our physical life”. Shaan Puri对“奇点论”作了诸多论证，他表示，数字生活变得更有价值，这实际上是自史蒂文·乔布斯开始的历史趋势，在这股趋势下，人们的生活中重要的部分，都在实质上地数字化。 Shaan Puri's many arguments about the “unique theory”, stating that digital life has become more valuable, is in fact the historical trend that began with Steven Jobs, where important parts of people's lives are essentially digitized. 例如，我们的工作场地，从工厂转移到电脑；我们的朋友，从现实转移到了线上；游戏呢，“今天，玩fortnite的孩子，超过了玩篮球和足球的孩子们的总和”。简言之，一切都在数字化，一切价值被搬到了网络上。 For example, our workplace is moving from factory to computer; our friends are moving from reality to line; and the game is, “Today, children playing fortite outnumber the children playing basketball and football together.” In short, everything is digital, and all value is transferred to the Internet. 我们的关注力，渐渐离开了物理世界，转移到数字世界。久而久之，“奇点”到来了，元宇宙也就自然而然的出现了。 Our attention has gradually moved away from the physical world to the digital world. For a long time, the singularity has come, and the meta-cosmos naturally emerges. 随着“奇点论”，我们进入了元宇宙支持者们的历史叙事，这正是元宇宙叙事的全新特点。借此，以元宇宙的度量衡出现了，它想度量的，是整个人类历史。在这一个历史版本中，人类文明的进化被分为四个阶段：原始人、社会人、半数人，以及最终的数字人。 With the Anomalous theory, we have entered into the historical narratives of the supporters of the meta-cosm, which is a completely new feature of the meta-cosm narrative. In this way, measured by the meta-cosmos, it is the entire history of humanity. In this historical version, the evolution of human civilization has been divided into four phases: the primitive, the social, half the human, and the ultimate digital. 四个阶段中，原始人自不必说。社会人是指文明开化后、信息时代前，以“理性”为特征的人类社会阶段。“半数人”则指，人们一半处于传统的物理世界，一半处于虚拟的信息世界，也就是我们当下的状态。 In four phases, the primitives need not say. Society refers to the stage of human society, characterized by “rationality” before the information age, when civilization has opened. “数字人”是怎样的状态？按照元宇宙叙事，那是“从动物性过渡到精神性，从实体到虚拟，是一个全新物种的人类”。这颇有些机械飞升的意思。 What's the state of "digital humans"? By meta-cosmology, that's "the transition from animal to spiritual, from entity to virtual, a human being of a new species." That's kind of a mechanical leap. 那么，我们究竟该如何看待元宇宙的出现呢？Shaan Puri在他的总结里说，“这是好事还是坏事呢？像所有的事一样，它既不好也不坏，它就是一件事，一件非常不一样的事”。 So, what do we think of the emergence of the meta-cosmos? In his summary, Shaan Puri says, “Is this good or bad? Like everything, it's neither good nor bad, it's just one thing, very different.” 《赛博朋克2077》游戏画面 Syberpunk 2077 video 元宇宙会如何发展 不仅如此，当下可见的技术短板，尚且看得到改进的希望。事实上，对落地元宇宙最大的掣肘，是那些看不见的制约。 Moreover, the technology shorts that can be seen at the moment are still seeing hope for improvement. In fact, the biggest constraint on the Earth dollar universe is the invisible ones. 诸如，多大的算力能够满足元宇宙要求的沉浸感？对此，我们有实现方案吗？如果“云计算”能够满足算力的要求，这一切还不太悲观。如果不能，最可期待的是“量子计算机”，但按照量子计算业内的观点，这恐怕又要等至少20年。 If not, what is most expected is a quantum computer, which is likely to wait at least 20 years from the point of view of the quantum computing industry. 问题的复杂性在于，元宇宙既然是多个技术的整合，那么，它就会存在“木桶效应”。也就是说，支撑元宇宙的技术如有一项短板，就会令整个效果大打折扣。那么，今时人们的所思所想，只是另一个到不了的彼岸。 The complexity of the problem is that when the meta-cosmos is a combination of multiple technologies, it has a “barrel effect.” That is to say, the technology that supports the meta-cosmos, if it has a short plate, will make the whole effect much less effective. So what people think today is just another one that can't get to the other side.
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