5月21日早晨，比特币价格冲破7万美元大关，这是近一个半月以来的首次。市场数据显示，前一天交易时段中，比特币最高触及70,665美元，24小时内的增长达到6%。目前，比特币报价为70638美元。
In the morning of 21 May, for the first time in almost a month and a half, the price of Bitcoin broke the $70,000 mark. Market data show that during the previous day’s transactions, Bitcoin reached a maximum of $70,665, a growth rate of 6 per cent in 24 hours.
近期，随着新获批的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）吸引了投资者的兴趣，比特币行情获得提振。与此同时，以太坊价格的强势上涨也对比特币形成了正面影响，市场推测美国证券交易委员会（SEC）或即将批准现货以太坊ETF，进一步推高了市场情绪。数字货币市场整体呈现出狂欢态势，多个币种当日录得显著增长。
Recently, with the newly approved spot-based Bitcoin Exchange Trading Fund (ETF) attracting investor interest, Bitcoin’s performance has been boosted. At the same time, the strong rise in the price of Taiyo also had a positive impact on the currency, with markets supposing that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the forthcoming approval of spot-based ETFs have further boosted market sentiment.
然而，这一波涨势也伴随着高风险，据统计，过去24小时内，超过7.5万人遭遇爆仓，涉及资金总额达3.02亿美元，其中最大的一笔爆仓单发生在火币平台上，价值约为310万美元。值得注意的是，类似规模的市场波动最近一次出现在5月16日。
However, this wave surge has been accompanied by high risks, with more than 75,000 people estimated to have been hit by explosions in the last 24 hours, involving a total of $302 million, the largest of which was on a tender platform valued at approximately $3.1 million. It is worth noting that market fluctuations of similar magnitude occurred most recently on 16 May.
比特币近期的波动性加剧，其价格走势与贵金属黄金、白银呈现同步涨跌的趋势，反映出宏观经济因素的深刻影响。美国4月份消费者物价指数（CPI）的放缓，加强了市场对美联储可能在9月降息的预期，美元指数应声走低，而黄金、白银及比特币市场则随之大幅上扬。美国联邦储备委员会成员米歇尔·鲍曼近期表示，尽管美联储在抑制通胀方面取得了一定成就，但通胀预计将在一段时间内维持高位，她并未排除未来加息的可能性，强调货币政策的调整将依据经济数据特别是通胀情况而定。尽管就业市场释放出积极信号，但鲍曼指出就业增长动力有所减弱，职位空缺依然高于疫情前水平。
The slowdown in the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in April reinforced the market’s expectation of a possible fall in the Fed’s interest rate in September, and the dollar index should be lowered, while the gold, silver, and bitcoin markets rose sharply. The US Federal Reserve Board member, Michel Bowman, recently stated that, despite some success in containing inflation, inflation was expected to remain high for some time, and she did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates in the future, stressing that monetary policy adjustments would depend on economic data, particularly inflation.
目前，市场普遍预测美联储今年或将实施两次降息，首次降息窗口或在9月。根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的“美联储观察”工具，6月维持当前利率水平的概率极高，而关于8月的政策走向，市场预计维持不变、小幅度降息和较大幅度降息的概率分别为76.4%、22.8%和0.8%。
Currently, the market is generally predicting that the Fed will implement interest cuts twice this year, either for the first time, or in September. According to the “Front Watch” tool of the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME), the probability of maintaining current interest rates in June is extremely high, while the market is expected to maintain the same, moderate and larger rates in August policy direction is expected to be 76.4%, 22.8% and 0.8%, respectively.
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