【观察者网 综合】再有20多天就是2018年了。每到岁末年初之际，各行业都会回顾即将过去的一年，展望即将到来的新一年。这不丹麦盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）日前就发布2018年“十大疯狂预测”（Outrageous Predictions），对于一些有可能出现、但概率并不算高（有的也就1%）的事件，提醒投资者发生的概率可能达到10%甚至更高。这些预测包括：比特币崩跌至1000美元，腾讯再涨100%市值超苹果、美联储失去独立性、美股狂跌25%、日本货币政策失控、南非复兴……
At the end of the year, industries will look back on the coming year, looking forward to the coming new year. This is not the case with the Danish Bank, which published the "Ten Mad Predictions" in 2018 just before. For events that are likely to occur but not likely to be high (or only 1%), the probability for investors may be 10% or even higher. These projections include: Bitcoins collapsing to $1,000, a 100% increase in market value super-apple, the loss of independence of the Fed, a 25% collapse in the United States, the uncontrollable monetary policy of Japan, and a revival in South Africa...
盛宝银行官网截图
丹麦盛宝银行于1992年成立，是专门从事在线投资的现代投资银行。今年10月，盛宝银行表示，浙江吉利控股集团在该行持有的股份将增至51.5%。
The Danish Bank of Shenbao, established in 1992, is a modern investment bank specializing in online investment. In October this year, the Bank indicated that the Zhejiang Jili Holdings Group’s shares in the Bank would increase to 51.5%.
在具体预测内容之前，盛宝银行在官网写到：相对于2017年的平淡无奇，2018年将是一个如同“过山车”般的年份。对于2018年，盛宝银行发布“十大疯狂预测”，这些预测聚焦于一系列不太可能发生、但其实是被严重低估的事件。一旦发生，就会震动金融市场。
Prior to concrete predictions, the Bank wrote on its website that 2018 would be a year like the "Ten Mad Predicts" when compared to the flatness of 2017. For 2018, the Bank released the "Ten Mad Predicts" that focused on a series of events that were unlikely to happen, but which were seriously underestimated.
盛宝银行指出，这些预测并不构成盛宝对2018年的官方市场预测，但是它们代表了对投资者可能出现错配风险的警告：在投资者看来，这些事件发生的可能性只有1％。
According to the Bank, these forecasts do not constitute the official market forecast for 2018, but they represent a warning to investors of the risk of miscalculation: in the investor's view, only 1 per cent of these events are likely to occur.
“我们怀疑，2017年的市场自满情绪和低波动性不会继续下去，可能为颇为壮观的2018年积蓄了力量。我们的一系列预测为了正视风险，即这种过度自满情绪的积累可能会使一个被压抑的波动泡沫破灭。”
“We suspect that market complacency and low volatility in 2017 will not continue and may build up power for a spectacular 2018. Our series of predictions are aimed at confronting the risk that this build-up of excessive complacency could destroy a depressed bubble.”
盛宝银行外汇策略主管、负责今年领导该项目的约翰·哈迪（John J. Hardy）评论道：
John J. Hardy, who heads the project this year, commented:
“2017年理应是风云变激荡的一年。年初，我们担心欧盟关键选举、担心特朗普当选对美股牛市造成影响、担心中国，仿佛会经受更加粗暴的货币政策冲击，全球市场会发生更剧烈的波动。事实恰恰相反，这一年过得相当顺利。除了少数例外，全球风险资产享受了相当舒适的一年，波动性非常低。
At the beginning of the year, we were worried about the EU’s key elections, about the impact of Trump’s election on the United States of America, and about China, as if it were going through a more brutal monetary-policy shock, and the global market was going to experience much more volatility. On the contrary, the year had been quite smooth.
但是对于2018年，我们看到钟摆重新摆脱了波动风险，因为资产市场长期平静和自满的讽刺意味在于，它们为未来的波动播下了种子，因为投资者低估了尾部风险，并且过度平衡了他们的投注周期。”
But for 2018, we saw the clocks regain the risk of volatility, because the irony of long-term calm and complacency in asset markets is that they sow seeds for future fluctuations, because investors underestimate tail risks and overbalance their investment cycles.”
盛宝银行官网截图
不过，该行首席经济学家斯坦·雅各布森（Steen Jakobsen）指出，作为一份已经连续十多年发表的“疯狂预测”，此次预测旨在鼓励人们在共识框架外进行思考。
However, the Bank's chief economist, Stan Jacobsen, pointed out that, as a “crazy prediction” that had been published for more than a decade, it was intended to encourage thinking outside the framework of consensus.
“相反，我们有一年非常顺利的航行，风靡全球的风险资产飙升。着眼2018，我们发现钟摆再次显著地摆了回来。资产市场的长期平静和沾沾自喜是讽刺性的，因为未来波动的种子就是这么种下的----投资者一方面低估了长尾风险，同时又在这种（安稳的）循环上下注太多。当下，我们应就‘事情在2018年必然来临的几个主要临界点上将朝哪个方向发展，又将导致何等惊人的变化’展开激辩。”
“On the contrary, we have had a very successful year of navigation, and the risk assets of the world soared. In 2018, we found that the pendulums had returned significantly again. The long-term calm and complacency of asset markets are ironic, because the seeds of future volatility are such that investors underestimate long-tail risks while at the same time betting too much on this (stable) cycle. Now, we should start to argue what course things are going to go on at the major points that will inevitably come in 2018, and what kind of amazing changes will result.”
盛宝银行官网截图
在引文的最后，盛宝银行表示，“ 不妨说，如果我们的任何一个预测在2018年变成了现实的话，明年这个时候，这个世界会感觉像一个全新的地方。”
接下来，我们来看看这“十大疯狂预测”都有什么：
Next, let's see what the ten crazy predictions have:
排在首位的是：中国人民币对美元汇率冲破6.0
In the first place: , the Chinese renminbi broke 6.0 against the United States dollar.
预测认为，伴随着与美国的关系日渐紧张，中国已经有效地消除了其将令货币贬值的市场恐惧。
With growing tension with the United States, forecasts suggest that China has effectively removed its market fears that will devalue its currency.
上海能源交易所将宣布发行以人民币计价的原油期货。此举将助推人民币对美元汇率升值10%以上，首次突破6.0水平。
The Shanghai Energy Exchange will announce the release of crude oil futures denominated in renminbi. This will contribute to an appreciation of the renminbi by more than 10 per cent against the dollar, surpassing the 6.0 level for the first time.
报告截图，下同
其次是：美国选民在2018年中期选举中倾向于左派，美债收益率将飙升，30年期美债收益率将突破5%
Second: US voters tend to be left in mid-2018 elections, US debt returns will soar, US debt returns will break 5% in 30 years
2018年的美国中期选举将出现强硬的左倾倾向，绝大多数人都支持由欧洲激励出来的民主社会主义。
The mid-term elections in the United States in 2018 will have a strong left-wing orientation, with the overwhelming majority supporting democratic socialism inspired by Europe.
任何一个国家的未来都是年轻一代。35岁以下的“千禧一代”是当下美国社会数量最多的一代人，甚至超过了“婴儿潮”一代。他们对特朗普非常反感，共和党的税制改革使得贫富差距日益加剧，新的民主党候选人有望在11月选举中胜出。
Any country’s future is that of a younger generation. The Millennium generation under 35 years of age is the largest generation of American society today, even exceeding the baby boom. They are very anti-Trumpian, with Republican tax reforms increasing the gap between rich and poor, and new Democratic candidates are expected to win in November’s elections.
共和党和民主党双方的民粹主义都不会被否认。特朗普的前策略师史蒂夫·班农（Steve Bannon）曾说过：“我们面临的唯一问题是，美国将是一个左翼的民粹主义国家还是一个右翼的民粹主义国家……答案将在2020年左右出现。”
Neither Republican nor Democratic populist will be denied. The former Trump strategist, Steve Bannon, once said: “The only question we face is whether the United States will be a left-wing populist State or a right-wing populist State...The answer will be around 2020.”
不用等那么久，2018年就是关键时刻了，民主党会轻而易举地夺回国会两院控制权。
Without waiting that long, 2018 would be a critical time, and the Democratic Party would easily take control of both chambers of the Council.
再次是：欧盟愈加分裂，欧元对美元汇率创下新高之后跌回平价
And again:
2018年，欧盟分裂局势将更加明显。传统核心国和新成员国的鸿沟将不可逾越，重心将从德国-法国转向匈牙利、波兰、斯洛伐克及捷克组成的“维舍格勒四国集团”（Visegrad 4）。
The division of the EU will become even more pronounced in 2018. The gap between the traditional core countries and the new member states will be insurmountable, and the focus will shift from Germany-France to the Visegrad Group of Four (Visegrad), composed of Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
奥地利和维舍格勒四国集团游说各个国家支持刺激计划，反对移民政策。他们将成功地拉拢起一个由13个欧盟国家所组成的集团，包括再次由贝卢斯科尼领导的意大利，在欧洲理事会中形成一个封闭的少数团体。
Austria and the Visegrad Group lobby for countries to support stimulus packages against immigration policies. They will succeed in bringing together a group of 13 EU countries, including Italy, once again led by Berlusconi, to form a closed minority group in the Council of Europe.
欧元对G10国家货币将冲上新高，随后迅速走弱，对美元将跌向平价水平。
The euro will hit a new high against the G10 national currency, which will soon weaken and fall to parity levels against the United States dollar.
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论