刚刚,比特币完成史上第三次“减半”,又要涨了?

资讯 2024-07-12 阅读:39 评论:0
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北京时间5月12日凌晨,比特币完成了史上第三次“减半”。自此,比特币每个区块的奖励将从12.5个比特币减至6.25个比特币。数据显示,比特币减半时价格达8541美元。

In the early hours of May 12, Beijing time, Bitcoin completed its third "half" in history. Since then, the incentive per bitcoin has been reduced from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins. The data show that bitcoin was halved at a price of $8541.

此次减半完成后,预计比特币第四次减半将于2024年进行,届时区块奖励将减至3.125个比特币。

With the completion of this halving, it is expected that the fourth halving of Bitcoin will take place in 2024, when block incentives will be reduced to 3.125 bitcoins.

所谓减半,是比特币的一种机制。要理解这种机制,你首先要明白什么是挖矿。

Halve it is a bitcoin mechanism. To understand it, you have to understand first what mining is.

比特币是一个区块链网络,在这个网络中平均每10分钟会生成一个区块,每个区块会把此前产生的很多笔交易打包其中,而这个区块生成的过程是通过网络上各个节点(计算机)的竞争计算,第一个算出区块哈希值的节点,就可以获得创建这个区块的资格,并获得一笔比特币的奖励。这种行为就像挖掘金矿获取黄金,因此被称为“挖矿”,而节点背后的人就被称为“矿工”。

Bitcoin is a network of blocks in which, on average, a block of 10 minutes is created, each of which will package the many transactions that have arisen before, and the process of generating the block is calculated through competition among the various nodes (computers) on the network, the first to calculate the Hashi value of the block, which will qualify for the creation of the block and receive a bitcoin reward. This behaviour is known as gold mining, and thus as “mining”, and the person behind the node is referred to as “miners”.

比特币诞生之初,每个区块的奖励是50个比特币。此后每新建210000个区块,奖励就会减半,也就是产出的比特币会减半,按时间计算大约每四年发生一次。而比特币的总供应量为2100万枚,如果一直减半下去,有人估算到2140年将不再产生新的比特币。

At the time of Bitcoin’s birth, each block was rewarded with 50 bitcoins. For every 210,000 blocks that have been built since then, the reward will be halved, i.e., the output of bitcoins will be halved, about every four years in time.

比特币这一减半设计被认为是出于供需关系的考虑,避免“通货膨胀”。如果不加限制地不断产出比特币,那么比特币随着数量的不断增多肯定会逐渐变得毫无价值。

Bitcoin, a half-way design, is considered to be based on supply-demand considerations to avoid “inflation.” If Bitcoin is produced indefinitely, it will certainly become worthless as the volume increases.

从2009年第一个比特币挖矿奖励诞生开始,比特币已经经历了三次减半。2012年11月28日,比特币完成首次减半,将每个区块奖励从50个比特币降低到25个。2016年7月10日,比特币完成第二次减半,就在今日,发生了第三次减半,挖矿奖励降至6.25个比特币。

Bitcoin has been halved three times since the birth of the first Bitcoin in 2009. On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin was halved for the first time, reducing each block from 50 to 25. On July 10, 2016, Bitcoin was halved for the second time.

由于在前两次减半之后,比特币均迎来了两轮“牛市”,所以市场各方对减半后的行情充满期待。业内普遍认为,长期来看比特币价格将在第三次减半后创下历史新高。

With two rounds of “cows” in Bitcoin after the first two halves, market parties are looking forward to a half. It is widely believed that Bitcoin prices will reach an all-time high after the third half in the long run.

原因也很简单,物以稀为贵,当产出的比特币越来越少时,其价格可能就会被推高。也有人认为,对于维护比特币网络的矿工而言,减半相当于挖矿的成本翻倍,为了生存下去,除了从技术手段上降低成本,想办法推高币价,可能也是其出路之一。

The reason is also simple: things are scarcely expensive, and prices are likely to be pushed up when there are fewer bitcoins of output. It is also argued that, for miners who maintain the Bitcoin network, halving is equivalent to doubling the cost of mining.

不过,对于所谓的“减半行情”,有业内人士不以为然:“可以看看过去比特币的走势,所谓的行情都是在减半后半年或一年才发生的,所以这种行情是否是由减半引起的,很值得怀疑,没有人能真正证明两者间的必然联系。比如2017年底的那波大涨,明显是由ICO引起的。”

However, in the case of the so-called “50-per-cent deal”, some of the people in the business do not think that: “It is possible to look at the past movement of bitcoin, which occurred only six months or a year after that, so it is questionable whether it was caused by halving, and that no one can really prove the necessary link between the two. The boom at the end of 2017 was obviously caused by the ICO.”

有意思的是,就在减半前日,比特币在经历了连续上涨后,突然大幅下挫超10%,让各方颇感意外。上述业内人士认为,减半短期内不会对比特币价格造成太大影响。

Interestingly, just a day before the halving, Bitcoin experienced a sudden and sharp drop of more than 10% after a consecutive rise. According to the industry, halving would not have much impact on the price of bitcoin in the short term.

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