usdt增发意味着什么？今天，在一篇关于USDT的文章里，一个散户很担心USDT兑RMB会低至3.5.莱比特矿池CEO江卓尔曾经大胆预测：“接下来几年，会有无数人因为USDT暴雷而倾家荡产。”这个预言很有其语不惊人誓不休的一贯作风。
What does the increase mean? Today, in an article on USDT, a scattered fear that the USDT against RMB would be as low as 3.5. The CEO of the Lebitt mine, CEJDR, was boldly predicting: “ in the coming years, millions of people will be left behind because of the USDT thunderstorm. & rdquo; this prophecy is quite impressive and consistent.
江卓尔这么说的道理何在?他认为美国不可能容忍一个自己控制以外的USDT，去帮伊朗清算这样的事情存在。因USDT不受监管，但又有一个中心化的实体可被追溯，所以肯定会被美国政府弄死。而且现在USDT本来就是半残状态，8亿美元被冻结了，美国司法体系下不会把这8亿美元放出来，基本相当于判了死缓。
What is the point of Jiangchallor’s argument? He believes that the US cannot tolerate a USDT outside its control to help Iran clear things like this.
根据匿名人士发布的USDT数据分析显示，2017年3月29日至2018年1月4日，USDT 总共增发了91 次，BTC暴涨几率中的48.8% 都发生在USDT增发后进入Bitfinex钱包的两小时内。因而认定，USDT的增发机制和比特币的价格存在密切联系。【1】因此，近期USDT频频在各大公链增发，引发印USDT的Tether操纵比特币的疑云。
Analysis of USDT data released by anonymous sources shows that between 29 March 2017 and 4 January 2018, USDT increased by 91 times and that 48.8 per cent of the BTC surge rate occurred within two hours of its increased release into Bitfinex’s wallet. It was determined that the USDT’s incremental development mechanism and the price of Bitcoin were closely linked.[1] As a result, the recent increase in the USDT frequency in the main public chain triggered a suspicious cloud of USDT-printed Tether manipulation of Bitcoin.
Tehter公司一直被传其储备池里面的资金曾被关联交易所Bitfinex 挪用，虽然现在据闻挪用资金已经被归还，但其资产负债表上，锚定的资产已经不再是1枚USDT对应1美元储备，储备池里取而代之的是对应美元、现金等价物及第三方贷款。Tether真是美联储的高徒!
Tehter had been told that the funds in its reserve pool had been embezzled by the affiliated exchange Bitfinex, and that although it was now reported that the misappropriation had been returned, the anchored assets on its balance sheet were no longer a USDT reserve of $1. Instead, the reserve pool was replaced by counterpart dollars, cash equivalents, and third-party loans.
以上各种问题引发2019年5月的USDT大幅波动事件，USDT兑人民币的平均振幅超过10%，市场呈现一片风雨飘摇的状态。阴谋论认为，制造这次事件是为了让其他合规的稳定币上位。不过，因为当时USDT占稳定币市场份额超过90%，一下子很难被替代。交易所因为持有大量USDT，可以说和USDT坐在同一条船上，因此市场各方合力稳住了USDT的价格，避免了一场更大的飓风出现。
The above-mentioned problems triggered a significant fluctuation in the USDT in May 2019, with the USDT having an average amplification of more than 10% against the renminbi, and the market being in a state of flux. Conspiracy theory suggests that the event was created to keep other compliant currencies stable.
这个USDT黑天鹅事件过后，我对USDT是真的心有余悸，做短暂加密货币买卖的时候，确实尝试暂时泊在其他合规的稳定币上，但我发现USDT 的交易深度比其他稳定币好太多，买卖差价也相对更窄，使用USDT瞬间就交易成功了，其他合规的稳定币根本很难和USDT竞争。
After the USDT Black Swan incident, when I did a short encoded currency deal, I did try to hold it temporarily on other compliant stable currencies, but I found that the USDT deal was much deeper than the other stable currencies, that the price difference was relatively narrow, that the USDT was successful in an instant, and that the other compliant stable currencies were difficult to compete with the USDT.
根据最近媒体的报道，USDT已经超越XRP稳坐加密货币市值第三的位置，抛离其他稳定币几条街。这是用户的使用习惯使然还是币圈的韭菜对权力机构的不屑?USDT懒理各种指责其操纵比特币上升的阴谋论，在增发的路上一路狂奔。目前USDT的总市值已经达到68亿。其中在以太坊上流通的USDT价值约56亿，占比超过80%。
According to recent media reports, the USDT has gone beyond XRP to sit third place in the market value of encrypted money and tossed away a few streets from other stable currencies. This is a user’s habit of using or currency-coated pickles, which makes the authorities disconcerting? USDT is lazy in its conspiracy theories of manipulation of bitcoins rising, running all the way. The total market value of the USDT has now reached 6.8 billion.
从技术角度分析，使用比特币网络上的Omni协议的USDT的转账费用相当昂贵，这也许是Tether在号称区块链2.0的 以太坊发行USDT的初衷之一。但以太坊1.0也有诸多问题，目前USDT的使用量占以太坊60%，但以太坊经常会因为一些热门应用而引发拥堵。以太坊的转账费用和EOS相比，明显的贵，这个不能怪孙宇晨因此而调戏V神，以太坊山寨版波场的转账速度和费用肯定比以太坊既快又便宜。在不同公链发行USDT，配合这条公链上的应用，肯定是有刚需的。
Technically, USDT transfers using the Omni agreement on the Bitcoin network are quite expensive, perhaps one of the original aims of Tether’s distribution of USDT in the area known as block chain 2.0. But there are a number of problems in the district, where USDT currently accounts for 60% of its use, but it is often crowded by popular applications. In comparison to EOS, the cost of the transfer is obvious.
3.12黑天鹅事件之后，USDT在不到两个月的时间内已增发市值近20亿美元。对此，币圈一片哇然，阴谋论认为这是USDT操纵比特币价格狂升的先兆。据ChaiNext 的“USDT 场外折溢价指数”显示，今年的溢价率是该指数历史数据中最为显著的，特别是3月16 日达到了溢价率8% 的高点，直到最近才回归至接近1美元的价值，甚至负溢价。
3.12 Following the Black Swan incident, USDT has increased its market value by nearly $2 billion in less than two months. The currency circle is quite vehement, and conspiracies suggest that it is a prelude to USDT manipulation of bitcoin prices. According to ChaiNext & ldquo; USDT off-site premium index & rdquo; this year’s premium rate is the most significant in the historical data of the index, especially since 16 March, when it reached a high of 8%, until recently, it returned to the value of nearly $1, or even negative.
ChaiNext USDT 场外折溢价指数
众所周知，在3.12加密货币历史上最大的黑天鹅事件中，币圈处于疯狂的互相踩踏状态，在不知道底在哪里的情况下，大家争相避险，把加密货币兑换成在短期内稳定的美元稳定币USDT. 在3.12当天比特币从8000美元跌到3800美元，成交近千亿美元，令USDT的需求剧增而产生高溢价是可以想象的。之后为了解决市场流动性枯竭危机，美联储增发近2.3万亿美元救市。无限QE令世界上的资金纷纷出逃，寻找如黄金和比特币等的储值工具。机构投资者，比如对冲基金等以一个相对安全的比例，争相投资比特币和以太币等加密货币，很大可能是作为进场桥梁的USDT 大幅增发的诱因。
It is well known that in 3.12, the largest black swan in the history of cryptic currency, the currency ring is in a state of madness, and without knowing where the bottom is, there is a competition to convert encrypted currency into a short-term stable dollar-stable currency, USDT. On 3.12, Bitcoins fell from $8,000 to $3,800, amounting to close to $100 billion, which could have created a huge premium on USDT’s demand.
在散户投资者方面，据Coinbase的数据显示，很多美国人收到政府补贴之后，在Coinbase换成USDT. 这些USDT有可能会被应用于跨境价值传输，交易者也有可能持有稳定币作为通往加密货币的通道。目前USDT已经拥有了一个包括交易、借贷、支付的跨行业、跨市场的需求。USDT保证金合约产品增多及其币值相对比特币和以太币稳定，便于跨境转账和支付等都成为USDT增发的另一诱因。
In the case of bulk investors, according to Coinbase, many Americans, after receiving government subsidies, are likely to convert Coinbase into USDT. These USDTs are likely to be used for cross-border value transmission, and traders may hold stable currency as a route to encrypted currency. The USDT now has a cross-industry, cross-market demand that includes transactions, borrowing, payments, and the increase in the USDT bond contract and its value relative to bitcoin and stability in the currency, and facilitating cross-border transfers and payments is another incentive for the USDT to increase.
另外，最近有很多币友反映，他们使用支付宝账号在把USDT或比特币兑换成人民币时，支付宝以涉嫌收到不明来历的资金为由而冻结其账号。这些原因也间接令到币圈的资金被迫使用USDT作为日常的价值传输工具，以作报酬，跨境转账等用途。
In addition, there have been a number of recent currency friends who have reported that when using payment bonds to convert USDT or Bitcoin into renminbi, they have frozen their accounts on suspicion of receiving funds of unknown origin. These reasons have also indirectly forced money arriving in the currency to use USDT as a daily value transfer tool for purposes such as remuneration, cross-border transfers, etc.
因此，世事无绝对，可能令USDT暴雷的原因包括美国政府的强势介入，或有很多人同时要求把USDT兑换成美元，令Tether公司发生挤兑危机，否则，已经具有先发优势的USDT，在目前币民已经形成使用习惯，相对于高波动性的比特币等加密货币更适用于跨境传输价值的情况下，其用途有可能被进一步拓宽，在加密领域取代美元成为日常生活的加密现金。带有合规标签的美元稳定币，并不一定令其在加密领域广受欢迎。
As a result, there is no absolute rule, and the reasons that could have led to USDT thunders include the strong involvement of the US government, or the simultaneous demand for USDT to be converted into US dollars and a crisis for Tether. Otherwise, USDT, which already has a pre-emptive advantage, is likely to be further expanded in its use when the currency is now used in a way that is more suitable for cross-border transmission values than encrypted currencies such as highly volatile bitcoins, which replaces the dollar in encryption as encrypted cash for everyday life.
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