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一度站上20000美元高点的比特币强劲势头在本周掉头。据火币网交易平台数据显示，在12月17日见高点后，比特币开始连续走低，22日晚间开始，连续跌破1.5万美元、1.4万美元、1.3万美元、1.2万美元、1.1万美元五道重要关口，飞流直下，截至12月23日晚间下午4时，比特币价格过去24小时的最低成交价格为12560美元，市场跌幅已超过50%，成了名副其实的郁金香第二。
Bitcoin, once at a high point of US$ 20,000, turned its back this week. According to the gunnet trading platform, after seeing the high point on 17 December, Bitcoin began to decline continuously, starting in the evening of 22 December, with a steady drop of US$ 15,000, US$ 14,000, US$ 13,000, US$ 12,000, US$ 110,000, and five important points of US$ 110,000, running straight downwards. As of 4 p.m. on the evening of 23 December, the lowest transaction price for bitcoin in the last 24 hours was US$ 12,560, and the market fell by more than 50 per cent, making it second in real tulip.
腰斩式的跌幅背后，高位暴跌的原因可能是以下几大因素作用的综合结果，但期货合约可能是暴跌最大的诱因。
Behind the cut-off, the sharp drop in height may be the result of a combination of several factors, but futures contracts may be the biggest incentive for the collapse.
1、心理常态：高位套现
1, Psychonormal: High-level setup
在暴涨之下，投机者起初都不愿意卖出，套现的动力是随着价格越来越高逐渐聚集，最终由量变变成质变。到17日，比特币已经积累了巨大的获利盘，没有价值支撑的纯数字产物接近2万美元的单价非常惊人，从心理关口上说，2万美元难以突破，最终投机者作鸟兽散，疯狂出货就在情理之中。
At first, speculators were reluctant to sell, driven by a gradual build-up of higher prices, eventually from volume to quality. By 17, Bitcoin had accumulated a huge profit plate, and a valueless pure digital product close to $20,000 per unit price was amazing.
2、政策及预期已经挑明
相对于过去的暧昧态度，比特币相关的机构、政府部门的态度都开始硬朗化。玩比特币最火的韩国同时韩国金融监督院12月19日表示，比特币和其他数字加密货币都不是货币。韩国政府还召集相关部门研讨加强对虚拟货币交易监管的法律法规，以及进一步规范虚拟货币交易市场，不巧的是，韩元比特币交易又占到了全球交易总量的20%。
On December 19, the Korean Financial Supervisory Authority, which played the hottest bitcoin, stated that bitcoins and other digital encrypted currencies were not currencies. The government also convened a meeting to discuss laws and regulations to strengthen the regulation of virtual currency transactions, as well as to further regulate the virtual currency exchange market, which, unfortunately, accounted for another 20% of global transactions.
甚至，比特币网（Bitcoin.com）联合创始人埃米尔奥登伯格之前也发表声明称，对未来比特币作为交易货币不看好。这些直白的态度对市场的冲击是显而易见的。
Even the co-founder of Bitcoin.com, Emile Odenberg, had previously stated that it was not good for future bitcoin as a trading currency. The impact of these straightforward attitudes on the market was obvious.
3、技术隐忧
3, technology
借助区块链技术去中心化一直是比特币最大的噱头，这种纯数字技术在创始伊始就自带安全背书，但去了中心化让所有交易有据可循似乎能保证财产在“确认归属”上的安全，却无法对抗互联网大环境下的黑客冲击。
Centralization through block chain technology, which has been the biggest fan of Bitcoin since its inception with security endorsements, has been centralizing all transactions that seem to guarantee the security of property on “recognizance” without being able to counter hacker shocks in the wider Internet environment.
也即，比特币的区块链机制可能让你放心地知道你账户里的100个币始终是归属于你的账户，但却无法防止你的账户本身被盗取。最近，韩国比特币交易所再次遭受了黑客的攻击，造成总资产17%的严重损失，比特币，在账户安全（而不是权属上的安全）上可能并不如银行。
In other words, Bitcoin’s block chain mechanism may reassure you that 100 coins in your account are always yours, but it is not possible to prevent your account from being stolen itself. More recently, South Korea’s Bitcoin Exchange has been hit again by hackers, causing a serious loss of 17% of total assets, and Bitcoin may not be like a bank in terms of account security (rather than security of tenure).
4、最大诱因：期货合约
4, Max. Momentum: futures contracts
成也萧何败萧何。
Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao.
美国时间12月10日下午，美国最大的期权交易所和全球最大的期货交易所开通比特币期货，高杠杆投机大规模涌入，比特币价格疯狂上涨。比特币期货交易数据显示，2018年 1月到期的比特币期货合约开盘报15000美元，随后快速上涨，交易途中三次触发熔断。
On the afternoon of December 10, US time, the biggest options exchange in the United States and the largest futures exchange in the world opened Bitcoin futures, with a massive influx of highly leveraged speculation, and Bitcoin prices skyrocketed. Bitcoin futures transaction data show that the Bitcoin futures contract, which expired in January 2018, opened for $15,000 and then rose rapidly, triggering a three-time break in the course of the transaction.
仔细分析发现，比特币暴跌前市场上就充斥着各种消息，各种市场预测，很多得到了应验，这十分符合期货做空的一贯套路。数字货币没有太多监管部门，不像股票市场有证监会的监管，而且比特币交易是匿名交易，胡说、瞎说、操纵市场只有套路没有真诚。
A careful analysis reveals that the market before Bitcoin collapsed was full of news, and that many of the market forecasts, many of which were answered, are very much in line with the usual pattern of futures being empty. There are not many regulators for digital money, unlike the SEC in the stock market, and that bitcoin transactions are anonymous, and that there is no truth to the bullshit, nonsense, and manipulation of the market.
投机并没有太多原理，经典的套利投机的玩法在股票市场屡试不爽，没有理由在比特币这件事情上例外，大机构通过买进比特币现货，做高比特币价格，获得盈利，又通过高位卖空比特币大量获利，轻车熟路。
There is not much to be said about speculation; the classic arbitrage of speculation has been tried out in the stock market, and there is no reason to make an exception in the case of bitcoin, where large agencies earn profits by buying up bitcoins, making up bitcoins, and selling empty bitcoins at a high price, making a lot of money and making light cars.
如图，所谓的“比特币早期投资者”，而且有全球发声能量的，一定都是大机构投资者。其操作方式十分明朗，大量在高位建了空单，通过发出市场预测消息传递和发酵，导致市场情绪恐慌，交易多头开始动摇，释放一部分手中的多单，像比特币这种交易盘面非常脆弱，因为没有太多的理论支撑，不需要太大的资金就能撬动盘面，暴跌、市场失控是大佬们早就预测好的、掌握在手心的结局。
As you can see, the so-called “bitcoin early investors” and those with global voice must be large institutional investors. They operate in a very clear way, with large numbers of high-level billboards, transmission and fermentation of market forecasts, leading to panic in the market, with many transactions starting to shake, and freeing up some of the pieces in their hands, such as bitcoins, which are fragile, because without too much theoretical support, they can squeal without too much money, and a fall and market out of control is a long-predictable, hand-in-hand ending for the big guys.
这是一场典型的期货金融动态博弈行为，过去只能做多比特币才能赚钱，现在做空也能赚钱，例如，17日见顶之后开始快速下杀接近1万美元，多空发力的市场毫无疑问总有一部分人或资金流向了空头阵营，这对多头阵营是一种分化和瓦解。期货市场能量逐渐集聚，传导到比特币市场，越跌做空的越多，高杠杆的多头惨遭爆仓，最终比特币单价腰斩。
This is a typical game of futures financial dynamics, which used to make money only by doing Dobitco, and now by making money, for example, by starting to kill close to $10,000 quickly after the summit of 17 days, with a certain number of people or money going to the empty camp, which is a split and disintegrate. The futures market is gathering its energy, passing it to the Bitcoin market, and the more it falls, the more it is, the more it gets, the more it gets, the more it gets, the more it gets, the more it gets, the more it breaks down, and the more it gets, the more it gets, the more it gets, the more it gets.
“早期投资者”们上涨时做多挣一笔，故意做空下跌又挣一笔，褥完这个波浪的羊毛，等着下一波继续割韭菜。
The “early investors” went up to make more money, to make more money, to make more money, to make more money on purpose, to finish this wave of wool, and to wait for the next wave to continue cutting vegetables.
没有价值匹配的代码，数字货币的总市值接近6000亿美元，超过万亿美元指日可待，这可能是互联网创造出的人类历史上最大的泡沫。在这个市场游弋的投资者的状态，与没有基本盘支撑，市盈率动不动几百几千倍的A股投资者何其相似。
Without a value matching code, the total market value of the digital currency is close to $600 billion, or more than $1 trillion, which may be the biggest bubble in human history created by the Internet. The position of investors in this market is similar to that of investors in A, who are hundreds of thousands of times less powerful than they are without basic support.
1、趁着火热想捞一笔就走的投机者，暴跌让它们毁于一旦。资金仓位迅速击穿，财富化为乌有，不少刚刚入市的投资者都纷纷交出了昂贵的学费。收益越大，风险越高，开涨动不动是几倍，跌幅也是轻轻松松就腰斩，这就是币市。
1, speculators who want to get away while the heat of fire is burning, crashes and destroys them.
2、目光长远的投资者，仍然获利颇丰。有人曾说2014年炒房可以赚很多钱，但是在数字货币上来说只能说九牛一毛，当年的初始资金现在翻了接近50倍，已经只能用飞越式的财富增长来形容了。 2, long-term investors, is still profitable. has been said to make a lot of money by 2014, but in digital currency it can only be said that the initial capital of that year has now increased nearly 50 times, and it can be described by overflight wealth growth. 3、跟消息、跟“老师”，有病离不了乱投医 3, news, and "teacher" > 当投资人急于想赚快钱、急于财富自由的时候，就会不知不觉地对失去自己的价值评判，也失去了投资的耐心与认真，更为危险的是你可能已经置于危险的追涨杀跌的操作中。 When investors are anxious to make quick money and are anxious to free their wealth, they will unwittingly judge their own value loss and lose patience and seriousness in investing, even more dangerously because you may already be in a dangerous pursuit. 亏损会让人丧失理智的思考和判别能力，就会有病乱投医，跟上社交媒体上所谓的“老师”，带单操作，有人破产却有人喊加仓不够，赚的不够。在社交平台大发截图笼络人心，如何在暴跌当天多空操作赚钱，描述得如同杂技。如果投资过数字货币都会知道很多交易平台的交易系统都是非常卡的，在行情波动剧烈的时候交易滑点严重和系统交易的延迟。这类喊赚的媒体号不用说大家也心知肚明。 Losses can cause people to lose their intellectual ability to think and distinguish, and they go to the hospital, keep up with so-called “teachers” in social media, and run with notes, while some people go bankrupt and cry out that they are not enough to raise money. The crowding of social platforms, how to make money in the air on the day of the crash, is described as a conundrum. If you invest in digital money, you know that many trading platforms have a very cardy trading system, and that trading slips and system transactions are delayed in times of high volatility. 4、暴跌，还是那个熟悉的味道 4, fell, or the familiar smell 比特币的大崩盘，击鼓传花终于会有停在手里的那一刻，从20000直接暴跌到14000，疯狂的泡沫破裂，仿佛又回到2008年和2015年的股灾，连买菜的寒暄都是“你的股票涨了吗？”。当所有人都在谈论这个市场的时候那就离崩盘不远了。两次股灾的剧情惊人的相似，一时间传出各地方的股民因加杠杆炒股跳楼的新闻，一时鱼惊鸟散，大浪褪去，只剩下裸泳的投资者。 Bitcoin’s crash, the drumming flower, will finally stop at the moment, falling directly from 20000 to 14,000, the crazy bubble bursting, as if back to the 2008 and 2015 booms, and even the food-buying chills were “Your stock?” When everyone talks about the market, it's not far from the crash. The story of the two whirlwinds is striking. 融资加杠杆也是历历在目，而比特币要比股票风险要更高，股票是中心化交易，而且市场的价值尚有，有公司的资产和估值作为支撑（不论价值偏差大小，至少有个实体的公司摆在那里），而比特币更多是依靠稀缺性和市场资金博弈的的多空量能做为价值依据。在比特币投资的时候，更多的是要关注市场的投资者情绪和投资人群的对交易的理解，只有深深的“套路”（程序化的投机技巧）得人心，连A股里那一点点的“真诚”（价值投资）都没了。 Financing leverage is also visible, and bitcoin is more risky than equities, shares are centralized, and market values are still available, supported by company assets and valuations (where at least one entity is located, regardless of the value bias), and bitcoins are more valued on the basis of scarceness and the multi-emptiness of market funds. When Bitcoin invests, more attention is paid to the market’s investor sentiment and the understanding of transactions by the investment community, with a deep “swiddth” (procedural speculative techniques) missing even a little “good faith” (value investment) in A shares. 引用知名经济学家埃里克诺兰的一句话：市场非理性的时间可以长到让你破产。看待比特币，从当下暴跌或者以更长远的眼光，结论也许完全不同。 To quote the famous economist Eric Nolan: Market irrationality can take as long as it takes to bankrupt you. Looking at bitcoin, it may be completely different from the current collapse or from the longer term. 1、很多人并不清楚比特币到底是什么，即便是专业人士，对于它的判定也判若两物。说比特币是一种点对点网络中的电子现金更为合理，作为货币比特币的稀缺性无疑是最大的亮点，比特币最终流通中的比特币总数将低于2100万个。很好的限制了价高货增的局面，也体现了比特币的投资价值在于其数量的稀缺性。 1. Many people do not know exactly what bitcoin is, and even professionals can judge it by two things. It is more reasonable to say bitcoin is electronic cash in a point-to-point network, and the scarcity of bitcoin as a currency is undoubtedly the best point, with the total number of bitcoins in the final circulation of bitcoin being less than 21 million. 2、未来更应该关注从虚拟到现实，从虚拟货币到现实之间的转化更为重要，货币的本质性能力就是具备支付功能，如果不具备支付功能那比特币就没有存在的意义。随着各个国家特别是日本大幅度扩围比特币的商业应用，央行承认其为支付手段；美国证监监督管理局拟允许其基金上市交易，如果比特币的货币属性越来越清晰，能顺利从虚拟到现实的转变，未来极有可能成为如黄金、美元一样的国际货币包括支付手段、储藏手段以及价值尺度。 The future should focus more on the transition from virtual to reality, from virtual currency to reality, where the currency’s essential capacity is to have a payment function, without which there is no meaning in bitcoin. As countries, particularly Japan, have significantly expanded their commercial applications around bitcoin, central banks have recognized it as a means of payment; the US SECI intends to allow their funds to be traded; and if the currency properties of bitcoins are becoming clearer and can be transformed smoothly from virtual to reality, the future will most likely become an international currency like gold, the dollar, including means of payment, storage, and value scales. 3、区块链技术有望成为未来互联网的核心技术。其去中心化、分布式账簿、大众全员背书信用的三大特点，都是颠覆行业的突破，有望改变现在中心化经济金融的弊端。这是比特币作为最早以区块链技术为基础的数字货币，比特币的区块连技术就是区块连技术向全世界展示的产品，这也是比特币狂涨的重要因素。而这些有利因素到底还会不会促使比特币再次上涨？难以下定论，况且区块链技术虽然首先在比特币上使用，但比特币只是一个开始。 This is Bitcoin, the first digital currency to be based on block chain technology, and Bitcoin’s block even technology is the product of block-to-block technology, which is a major factor in the growth of bitcoin. Will these advantages cause bitcoin to rise again? 不论如何，去中心化的货币一定会成为趋势，但是不是比特币只能靠时间检验而不是炒作和吹嘘。 In any case, decentralized currencies are bound to become a trend, but not bitcoins can only be tested in time rather than bragging and bragging. 非常感谢您的报名，请您扫描下方二维码进入沙龙分享群。 非常感谢您的报名，请您点击下方链接保存课件。
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