极客网·极客观察12月21日 为了实现Meta创始人马克·扎克伯格对未来虚拟世界的梦想，该公司每个季度都在向元宇宙技术投资数十亿美元。不过尽管如此，该公司及整个美国的VR市场规模正在萎缩。
Expert Net & nbsp & December 21; to realize Meta's founder's dream of a future virtual world, Mark Zuckerberg invests billions of dollars every quarter in meta-cosm technology. Nevertheless, the size of the company and the entire U.S. VR market is shrinking.
根据研究机构Circana发布的调查数据，截至11月25日，美国2023年VR和AR头显的销售额只有6.64亿美元，暴跌了将近40%。值得一提的是，这比去年的降幅大得多，美国2022年的销售额为11亿美元，只下滑了2%。
According to survey data released by the research institute Circana, as of 25 November, the United States recorded only $664 million in sales of VRs and ARs in 2023, a sharp decline of nearly 40 per cent. It is worth noting that this is a much larger decline than last year, when the United States sold $1.1 billion in 2022, a decline of only 2 per cent.
挣扎的Meta VR
Meta VR
这两年的销售额下滑，凸显了Meta在将沉浸式技术从小众游戏领域推向主流方面面临的持续挑战。虽然扎克伯格在2021年底宣布将Facebook改名为Meta时声称，Facebook可能需要10年时间才能达到10亿用户，但他需要展示更乐观的数据，以安抚对该公司巨额风险投资持批评态度的股东。
The decline in sales over the past two years highlights the continuing challenge that Meta faces in mainstreaming immersion technology from small crowd games. While Zuckerberg announced in late 2021 that Facebook would take 10 years to reach 1 billion users, he needs to show more optimistic data to appease shareholders critical of the company’s huge venture capital.
但到目前为止，还没有一个突破性的成功或者杀手级应用来验证扎克伯格的愿景。Meta旗下开发VR和AR技术部门Reality Labs今年第三季度的销售额为2.1亿美元，但亏损了37亿美元。自从扎克伯格在2022年初将Facebook更名后不久，该部门总计亏损约250亿美元。
So far, however, there has been no breakthrough success or killer-level application to validate Zuckerberg’s vision. The development of VR and AR technology under the Meta banner was worth $210 million in sales in the third quarter of this year, but at a loss of $3.7 billion.
Meta拒绝对此发表评论，但引用Reality Labs首席技术官Andrew Bosworth日前发表的一篇博客文章称，“AI和元宇宙是对未来技术的两大长期押注，这两种技术正开始以大众都能接触到的产品形式相结合。”
Meta declined to comment on this, citing a blog post by Andrew Bosworth, Chief Technical Officer of Reality Labs, which stated that “ Bosworth写道：“长期押注新兴技术并不容易。它不能保证有效，而且投资巨大。这也是科技公司所做的最有价值的事情之一，也是保持长期相关性的唯一途径。” Bosworth writes, "It's not easy to keep an eye on emerging technologies for a long time. It doesn't guarantee effectiveness, and it invests heavily. It's one of the most valuable things that technology companies do, and it's the only way to maintain long-term relevance." Circana消费者技术分析师Ben Arnold表示，Meta目前是全球VR市场的领导者，其Quest头显的销量占据了美国市场的大部分份额。索尼在今年早些时候发布了第二代PlayStation VR2头显，但由于该设备对PlayStation 5视频游戏机的依赖，并没有获得多少市场份额。 According to Circana consumer technical analyst Ben Arnold, Meta is currently the leader of the global VR market, and its market share of most of the US market is Queen’s headline sales. Sony released a second generation of PlayStation VR2 earlier this year, but did not receive much market share because of the equipment’s dependence on PlayStation 5 video games. Arnold将这一年的市场不景气归因于缺乏能够激发用户兴趣的新型VR头显，以及仍然缺乏在主流消费者中具有广泛吸引力的突破性应用。 Arnold attributed the year's market downturn to the lack of a new type of VR headline that would stimulate user interest, as well as to the continuing lack of groundbreaking applications that were broadly attractive to mainstream consumers. 今年10月，Meta首次推出了Quest 3 VR头显，售价为499美元，比2020年Quest 2 VR头显的基本款最初的定价高出200美元。 In October this year, Meta launched for the first time the Quest 3 VR for a sale price of $499, which is $200 more than the original price of the Quest 2 VR for basic funds in 2020. Arnold表示，这些年来，VR头显的设计和吸引力都有了显著改善，这些产品正沿着一个有意义的时间表发展。 Arnold indicated that the design and attractiveness of VR leaders had improved significantly over the years and that these products were developing along a meaningful timetable. 他说：“如何为VR头显创造出优秀的内容，也就是让开发者能够投入更多资源去创造一款游戏或某种体验，这对开发者来说是一个挑战。这与经济有关，与有多少人被这个平台或特定设备所吸引有关，如果我是开发者，我会考虑这是否值得这么做。” He said, "How to create an excellent content for the VR head, that is, to allow developers to devote more resources to creating a game or an experience, is a challenge for developers. It's about the economy, about how many people are attracted to this platform or specific equipment, and if I'm the developer, I'll think about whether it's worth it." Meta希望Quest 3 VR头显能够激发开发者开发更多引人注目的应用和游戏，利用该设备所谓的直通（pass–through）功能，将数字图形与现实世界体验相结合的AR体验。 Meta hopes that Quest 3 VR headlines will inspire developers to develop more visible applications and games, using the device's so-called pass-through function, to combine digital graphics with the AR experience of the real world. Bosworth在博客中写道：“在Meta Quest 3 VR头显发布几个月之后，排名前20的应用中有7个是混合现实的应用。Meta看到了人们真正重视这些体验的强烈信号。” Bosworth writes in his blog: "A few months after Meta Quest 3 VR headlines, seven of the top 20 applications are mixed reality applications. Meta sees a strong signal that people really value these experiences." 他表示，Meta正在其最新的Ray-Ban智能眼镜上测试生成式AI技术，以帮助人们翻译外语，或为拍摄的照片提供有趣的标题。这将首次让AI从人们的角度看世界。 He said that Meta was testing the generator AI technology to help people translate foreign languages or provide interesting titles for photographs taken. This would allow for the first time to make 该公司的第二代Ray-Ban眼镜在去年10月发布，售价为299美元。Meta希望这些设备能为扎克伯格实现其虚拟世界愿景提供另一条途径。而此前，扎克伯格的虚拟世界愿景都是通过Quest头显实现的。 The company’s second-generation Ray-Ban glasses were released last October for $299. Meta hopes that these devices will provide another way to realize Zuckerberg’s vision of a virtual world. 苹果进入市场 进入2024年，VR市场最大的变数是苹果。苹果在今年6月推出了Vision Pro混合现实头显，预计将于明年上市，售价为3499美元。 In 2024, the biggest variable in VR markets was apples. Apples launched the VisionPro hybrid in June of this year and are expected to be on the market next year at a sale price of $3499. VR开发者在Meta Connect活动上表示，Vision Pro头显的定价表明苹果将早期采用者、开发者和公司作为潜在客户。考虑到苹果在消费类设备方面取得的巨大成功，以及Vision Pro与iPhone和iPad等产品集成的潜力，VR爱好者对苹果推出的首款头显感到兴奋。 VR developers at Meta Connect indicate that Vision Pro’s pricing suggests that apples use early adopters, developers, and companies as potential customers. Given the great success of apples in consumer-type equipment, and their potential for integration with products such as Vision Pro and iPhone and iPad, VR fans are excited about the apple’s introduction headlines. 根据IDC的研究，Vision Pro头显的首次亮相也可能在2024年对新兴的VR和AR市场起到关键的推动作用。在9月关于VR和AR市场状况的新闻发布会上，IDC研究主管Ramon Llamas说，“苹果的进入将给这个小众市场带来亟需的关注，但也将迫使其他公司以不同的方式竞争。” According to IDC research, the first appearance of Vision Pro could also be a key boost to the emerging VR and AR markets in 2024. At a press conference in September on VR and AR markets, IDC research director Ramon Llamas said, “The entry of apples will bring much-needed attention to this small market, but it will also force other companies to compete in different ways.” JMP Securities的分析师Andrew Boone表示，他最初对苹果的Vision Pro演示印象深刻，以至于开始担心Meta在市场上的未来发展——苹果遥遥领先，也许Meta会认输。 The analyst for JMP Securities, Andrew Boone, said that he had initially been impressed by the Vision Pro demonstration of apples, so much that he had begun to worry about the future development of Meta in the market — apples were far ahead, and perhaps Meta would give up. 他说，“我认为我在这方面的态度已经改变了。如果头显的价格太高，可能无法获得大量的用户需求，所以扎克伯格正在追求一个不同的版本。显然，Quest头显更侧重于游戏。” He said, "I think my attitude in this regard has changed. If the head shows too high a price, you may not be able to get a lot of user demand, so Zuckerberg is pursuing a different version. Obviously, the head shows are more focused on the game." Boone表示，Quest头显和Vision Pro头显之间存在“足够的差异”，可以满足不同人群的需求，不过预计VR市场在未来一年将推出更多的产品。 在企业VR市场，Meta和HTC是行业领先的设备供应商。Illenberger表示，字节跳动取消了下一个版本的Pico头显，转而将资源转移到另一个更类似于苹果Vision Pro的头显上。 In the corporate VR market, Meta and HTC are leading suppliers of equipment in the industry. Illenberger states that the byte beat eliminates the next version of Pico, and instead shifts resources to another, more like Apple Vision Pro. 他认为，在向企业销售VR设备方面，Meta已于2021年底开始从更名中受益。他说，扎克伯格的品牌重塑对一些企业产生了心理影响，这些公司更愿意购买没有Facebook品牌污点和相关数据隐私丑闻的设备。 He argued that Meta had benefited from a name change in the sale of VR equipment to businesses in late 2021. 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