比特币是庞氏骗局或传销吗？
Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scam or a distribution?
怎样辨别比特币是不是骗局，我们要先明确骗局的特征，首先要对骗局本身做好定义。
How to identify Bitcoin as a fraud first we have to identify the characteristics of the scheme and first we have to define the scheme itself.
所有骗局【一定】具备下面3个特征：
All scams have three characteristics:
1.操盘手一定是以牟利为目的的
The game must be for profit.
2.一定是建立在信息不对称的基础上
2. Must be based on information asymmetry
3.一定是一个零和游戏
It must be a zero-sum game.
比特币是否存在信息不对称？
Is there an information asymmetry in Bitcoin?
从运行上来看，比特币实际上是一个互联网上的去中心化账本。比特币是开源的系统，整个系统的每一行代码，每一条数据都是可以查询到的。所以底裤都亮给大家看了，肯定不存在什么信息不对称的问题。
In operational terms, Bitcoin is actually a decentralised account book on the Internet. Bitcoin is an open-source system, with every line of code in the system, and every piece of data is accessible. So the underpants show you that there's no information asymmetry.
比特币操盘手是否有牟利行为？
Did the Bitcoin manoeuvring act for profit?
开源系统公开透明，所以想通过开源系统来牟利是不可能的。所以中本聪选择开源这个举动已经很大程度上排除了它想牟利的动机。
Open-source systems are open and transparent, so it is impossible to profit from open-source systems. So the move to choose open-sources has largely ruled out the motive for profit.
比特币是去中心化的系统，在这个系统里人人平等，中本聪（比特币的发明人）跟网络里任何一个人没有分别。所以没人可以控制你钱包里的比特币。
Bitcoin is a decentralised system in which everyone is equal, where Benz is no different from anyone in the network. So no one can control the bitcoin in your wallet.
想修改比特币系统，是需要全网用户来投票的，如果他的改动伤害了别人的利益，是无法通过的。
To change the Bitcoin system would require Internet users to vote, and if his changes hurt the interests of others, they would not pass.
比特币是不是一个零和游戏？
Is Bitcoin a zero-sum game?
零和游戏是指如果有一方有受益，那么另一方就一定有损失，受益和损失相加为0。典型的零和游戏：斗地主，打麻将
Zero-sum game means that if one has a benefit, the other has a loss, the benefit and the loss are equal to zero. Typical zero-sum game: a gladiator, a mahjong.
首先，整个比特币系统由于上面提到的公开透明，去中心化的特点。比特币的发明者是没有办法从你的钱包里“抢走”比特币的。
First, the entire bitcoin system is centralized by the transparency mentioned above. Bitcoin's inventors can't “take” bitcoin from your wallet.
其次，比特币的价格上涨，系统里的所有用户都会受益，所以对于整个比特币系统来看，这明显不是一个零和游戏。
Secondly, the price increase in bitcoin would benefit all users of the system, so this is clearly not a zero-sum game for the entire bitcoin system.
不得不承认，科技的进步是新型传销和庞氏骗局滋生的温床。唯一需要我们做的只是把它们分辨出来，而不是一味否定。以比特币为例跟传销和庞氏骗局分别做个对比，也许你更清楚。
We have to admit that advances in technology are the hotbeds of new distributions and Ponzi frauds. The only thing we need to do is to separate them, not to deny them. By contrast to distribution and ponzi frauds, perhaps you know better.
传销是什么？有哪些特点？
What's the distribution? What's the characteristics?
“传销”的定义是：通过特定上下线关系拉人头，吸纳并分配资金的行为。我们总结一下传销的三个特点：1.拉人头；2.分层级；3.上线靠下线获利。
The term “distribution” is defined as the act of pulling heads, absorbing and allocating funds through a specific line-up or bottom-up relationship. We summarize the three characteristics of the distribution: 1. head-pulling; 2. hierarchy; 3. bottom-up profites.
比特币交易市场的资金流向类似于股票市场，都是新投资者向不特定的旧投资者购买投资物（比特币或股票），任何新旧投资人都不能确保盈利。在比特币/股票市场中老人比起新人没有优势，都要靠自己的能力判断涨跌而盈利；而庞氏骗局/传销中老人比起新人有强制优势，老人强制从新人处获取资金。
The money flow to the Bitcoin trading market is similar to the stock market, where new investors buy investments (bitcoins or shares) from unspecific old investors, and no old or new investors can ensure a profit. In the Bitcoin/stock market, older people have no advantage over newcomers, but have to make a profit by their own judgement; and the Ponzi scheme/distribution of older persons has a mandatory advantage over newcomers, who are forced to get money from newcomers.
我们对比比特币与传销的三大特点，首先是拉人头，比特币本身的激励机制和传销的拉人头是完全不同的两个概念。传销是你鼓动我从你那买产品，我成为你的下线，你从中获利。比特币是通过激励机制鼓励更多的人参与竞争记账，记账成功的人获得比特币作为奖励，这是对矿工的奖励，因为他们对比特币网络作出了贡献，耗费大量电力算力记录了我们的交易。
The three main features of our comparison of bitcoin and distribution are, first of all, head-blowing, the incentive of bitcoin itself and the head-blowing of distribution are two completely different concepts. The distribution is that you encourage me to buy products from you, and I become your bottom line, and you profit from it. Bitcoin is an incentive to encourage more people to compete in accounting, and successful bookkeepers receive bitcoin as a reward, which is an incentive for miners, because they contribute to the bitconet and consume a lot of electricity to record our transactions.
整个比特币网络中并没有上下线的层级之分，我向你科普区块链和加密数字货币，你了解之后参与进来，我得不到任何好处。
There are no hierarchies in the entire Bitcoin network, and I have come to you with the Coptic block chain and encrypted digital currency, and I have no advantage in getting involved when you know it.
那有人就要质疑了，虽然比特币不是传销，但它是新型的庞氏骗局，不然为什么要忽悠我们入场？
Then someone is going to question that, although Bitcoin is not a distribution, it's a new Ponzi scheme, or why did you let us in?
什么是庞氏骗局？
What's a Ponzi scam?
庞氏骗局是由一个人或一个组织主导，许诺投资高额回报。其余人均为下线，下线都是投资人，投资人能定期领到利润回报，利润是后来的投资人的钱被给了前面的投资人，直到主导人跑路。
The Ponzi scheme is dominated by a person or an organization, promising high returns on investment. The rest of the people are offline, investors are offline, investors are paid profits on a regular basis, and profits are paid by later investors to the previous investors until the lead runs.
庞氏骗局一般会把投资计划搞的非常复杂，让普通人根本看不懂，也无心去看。骗局关键性布局在于让普通人“眼见为实”的证据：最初的一批“投资者”确实在规定时间内拿到了承诺的回报。于是，就会有人跟进上当。操作得当，跟进上也能拿到初期的回报，就会让更多的人看到好处，更多的人就会主动前来上当被骗。直到主导人卷到足够多钱后跑路。
Ponzi scams tend to make the investment plan very complicated, making it hard for ordinary people to read and see. The key aspect of the scams is the evidence that ordinary people “see what they want”: the initial group of “investors” did get the promised return within the prescribed time frame. So, somebody does it. If you do it properly, you get the initial return, you get the benefits, you get the benefits, you get the benefits, you get the benefits.
这时候有人会问，那其他数字货币就绝对安全了吗？
At this point, someone will ask, is the rest of the digital currency absolutely safe?
简单的庞氏骗局已经没有生存空间了。但与加密数字货币结合的庞氏骗局，要分辨就不太容易了。你可以大致了解他们圈钱跑路的整个流程：选择一款现成的，或者干脆自己编套程序，发明一种数字货币。包装几个“专家”、“精英”和一些“连名字都不知道怎么读的外国人”。
Simple Ponzi scams no longer have room for survival. But Ponzi scams combined with encrypted digital money are not easy to distinguish. You can get a general idea of how they run around the money: choose an off-the-shelf, or simply create a digital currency on their own. Pack a few “experts, elites” and some “foreigners who don't even know how to read their names”.
目前互联网上出现了大量由骗子公司控制发行的虚拟币，号称是比特币的模仿改进者，但实际上是传销或庞氏骗局（例如珍宝币、维卡币、摩根币等），虽然不是纯粹的骗局，但被庄家高度控盘（例如鲨鱼币、谷壳币等）。这些骗子币与比特币的最大区别在于：比特币不属于任何人或组织，是一个无人控制的，去中心化运行的货币。而这些骗子币有明确的发行方，并被发行方完全控制。骗子币虽然也叫“币”，但和比特币完全是两码事。和开放代码的比特币不同，大部分骗子币都不开放代码，或者干脆连代码都没有，只是网站上的一个数字，发行方想改多少就有多少。骗子币往往有人卖力发帖推广，一般用上下线拉人头的手段吸纳资金。一个最简单的判断方法是，如果XX币由号称“实力雄厚”的XX公司发行，有着广阔的前景，并保证投资/挖矿收益高，许诺能涨能赚钱，要你花钱购买，那100%是骗子币。
The biggest difference between them and bitcoins is that bitcoins are not anyone's or organization, and that they operate in a centralized way. They have a clear distributor and are fully controlled by the issuer. They are also called coins, but they are two-dimensional. Unlike bitcoins with open codes, most of them are not open to code, or simply have no code, just a number on the website, and the issuers want to change as much as they want.
通过线上和线下双重宣传各种发财暴富案例，设计数字货币升值假象。被骗者直接投资买入该数字货币。给被骗者在投资周期结束后复利奖励，或直接返利。奖励也是数字货币本身。给被骗者发展下线承兑数字货币奖励。组织者大量卖出数字货币套现，币价将大幅下跌。拒绝返钱和奖励，赖账。声称被黑客攻击，声称被庄家控盘，导致币价下跌。跑路。
Incentives are also digital money itself. Incentives are also digital money. Digital currency incentives are developed for defrauded people. The organizers sell large amounts of digital money, and currency prices fall sharply. Refusals to return money and rewards, and failure to pay.
在加密数字货币本身升值周期中，底层和中间层都能在账面获利。但进入贬值周期时，除了庄家，其他人都别想跑，从传销变成一场庞氏骗局，让所有没有提前套现的人损失掉全部本利。所以说，传销币往往是这样的：以传销开头，用直销运营，用庞氏骗局结束。
Both the bottom and the middle are profitable on the books in the cycle of appreciation of the encrypted digital currency itself. But when entering the devaluation cycle, no one else can run from distribution to a Ponzi scheme, where all those who do not pre-dispose will lose all of their profits. So it is often the same: at the start of the distribution, at the end of the operation, at the end of the Ponzi scheme.
比特币是开源的，所有代码是公开透明的，从设计之初就是多中心化的，这种多中心化的理念是被写死在算法中的。比特币的设计者中本聪在整个网络中的地位与其他任何参与者并无不同，没有任何一个个人或者机构掌握着用户的资金然后消失不见。所以它不是。
Bitcoin is open-source, all codes are open and transparent, and it's been multi-centric from the beginning of the design. The concept of multi-centricity is written down in algorithms. Benz's position in the whole network is no different from that of any other participant in the bitcoin designers. No individual or institution holds the user's money and disappears. So it's not.
在这里我要说的是，币客这么做的目的是呼吁更多的人了解区块链，它现在处于一个萌芽到成长的关键时期，人人都在不断地学习，只有在了解的基础上，我们才能分辨项目的质量，而不是盲目地投机。
Here, I would like to say that the purpose of the coins is to call for more people to understand the chain of blocks, that it is now in a critical period of budding to growth, that everyone is learning constantly and that only on the basis of understanding can we distinguish the quality of the project from blind speculation.
想要了解更多关于区块链、比特币的知识，登录币客钱包（iBitcome），一切尽在币客知识讲堂。
More knowledge about block chains, bitcoin, iBitcome, everything.
下载地址：www.ibitcome.com
Download address: www.ibitcome.com
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