本文来源：时代财经 作者：金子莘
Source: Economics of the Age.
比特币最新一次减半已经完成。
The latest halving of Bitcoin has been completed.
北京时间2024年4月20日8时09分27秒，比特币于区块高度840000成功完成第四次减半，至此，“矿工”挖矿获得的区块奖励由6.25枚比特币减半至3.125枚。
On 20 April 2024 Beijing time, at 0809 hours and 27 seconds, Bitcoin successfully halved its fourth term at a block height of 840,000, so that “miners” were given a block reward of between 6.25 and 3.125 bitcoins.
算上此次减半，比特币已经经历了4次减半，而上一次减半发生在2020年5月11日。
Counting this time by half, Bitcoin has already been halved four times, the last one on 11 May 2020.
据了解，比特币减半指的是“挖掘”比特币的交易奖励减半（在每21万个区块被开采之后，所触发的比特币奖励减半），大约每四年发生一次。减半也是比特币特有的特征，保证了比特币作为数字货币的长期可持续性以及稀缺性，同时实现价值保持。
It is understood that the halving of bitcoin refers to the halving of the “digging” of bitcoin trading incentives (the one that triggers the bitcoin reward by half for every 210,000 blocks mined), approximately every four years. Halving is also a bitcoin-specific feature that ensures the long-term sustainability and scarcity of bitcoin as a digital currency, while maintaining value.
过往的几次比特币减半事件前后，比特币币价大多数呈现不同幅度上涨。
Most of the past instances of halving the bitcoin were marked by increases of varying degrees.
据光大证券海外TMT团队发布的数字货币&Web3跟踪报告复盘，四次比特币减半事件发生的前60日区间，比特币币价涨幅分别为-0.6%、43.4%、59.6%及25.4%，对此光大证券分析认为，由于资金倾向于在减半发生前提前布局全网比特币新增供应边际减半下，比特币稀缺性的提升；而前三次减半发生后180天区间，均迎来牛市，比特币分别实现币价涨幅955.7%、39.1%及74.4%。
According to a review of the digital currency & Web3 tracking reports issued by the TMT team abroad, between the first 60 days of the four halved Bitcoins, the price of the Bitcoins increased by -0.6 per cent, 43.4 per cent, 59.6 per cent and 25.4 per cent, respectively, an analysis of the GDR found that the scarcity of the Bitcoins increased by half because of the tendency of the funds to pre-drawn the new all-net margin of supply of the Bitcoins prior to the halving, while the 180-day period after the first half of the three halves, with Bitcoins increasing by 955.7 per cent, 39.1 per cent and 74.4 per cent respectively.
图片来源：图虫创意
能冲击10万美元目标？
此次比特币减半事件发生后，比特币价格小幅上涨，截至4月22日发稿，比特币站上66000美元/枚。
Following the halving of the Bitcoin incident, the price of the bitcoin rose slightly and, as of 22 April, was distributed at a station of $66,000 per item.
据了解，比特币减半大约每四年发生一次，是比特币设计中的关键特征，目的是通过减少新比特币的生产速度为比特币引入通缩属性的调节模型。
It is understood that the halving of bitcoin, which takes place approximately every four years, is a key feature of Bitcoin design, with the aim of introducing in Bitcoin, by reducing the production rate of new bitcoin, a model for the adjustment of deflationary properties.
历史上比特币一共经历四次减半事件，分别发生于北京时间2012年11月28日、2016年7月9日、2020年5月11日及2024年4月20日，从时间间隔来看，约每4年发生一次。但根据规则，比特币减半的时间取决于区块高度的累积，约每21万个区块被开采之后，而不是固定时间节点。
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced four halves, one on 28 November 2012, one on 9 July 2016, one on 11 May 2020 and one on 20 April 2024, at intervals of approximately four years. But, according to the rules, the other half of Bitcoin depends on the accumulation of blocks at a high level, after approximately 210,000 blocks have been mined, rather than on fixed time nodes.
此次减半前一日（4月19日），比特币价格闪崩，最大跌幅超6%，一度失守6万美元/枚整数关口，创下今年3月以来最低价格。而在4月19日前一周区间（4月12日至4月19日），比特币价格累计下跌已超8%。
By the day before the halving (19 April), Bitcoin prices collapsed, with the largest drop of more than 6 per cent, and a one-time loss of $60,000 per integer mark, setting the lowest price since March this year. By the week before 19 April (12 April-19 April), Bitcoin prices had fallen by more than 8 per cent.
对于此次减半前比特币价格的“疲软”，外汇和加密货币交易机构执行场所的独立运营商LMAX?Group市场策略师Joel Kruger曾于日前公开表示，市场疲软可能会持续一段时间，最新的区块链数据显示，比特币大户持有者不愿顶着当前下跌风险买入，这表明在比特币准备好回升前，市场仍可能会看到持续的下跌或盘整。
For the “weakness” of Bitcoin prices before this halving, the independent operator of the foreign exchange and crypto-currency trading agencies, LMAX? Group market strategist Joel Kruger, stated publicly earlier that market weakness could last for some time, and the latest block chain data show that large Bitcoins owners are reluctant to buy in the face of the current downside risk, suggesting that the market may still see a continued decline or consolidation until Bitcoin is ready to rise.
其认为，比特币目前值得关注的关键技术水平是59000美元，这是重要的支撑区域。如果比特币能够保持在这一水平之上，那么它将继续有能力冲击新纪录高点和10万美元的目标。但其指出，如果市场看到更多的下行压力，如比特币价格跌破59000美元，或将打破短期看涨前景，回调进入45000～50000美元区间也将成为可能。
It argues that Bitcoin’s current critical level of technology of concern is $59,000, which is an important supporting area. If Bitcoin is kept above that level, it will continue to be able to hit the target of a new record high and $100,000.
一名币圈从业人士告诉时代财经，“根据过往经验，通常减半后半年区间会来大牛，减半时间节点前后会调整。但我们交流下来都认为，长期只要不跌破50000～60000美元，整体来看还是多头趋势，但是否会涨到15万美元，还有待观察。”
One currency practitioner told the economy of the times that, “on the basis of past experience, the bulls usually come in the second half of the year, and are adjusted around the midpoint. We all share the view that there is still a long-term trend, but it remains to be seen whether it will rise to $150,000, as long as we don’t break $50,000 to $60,000 in the long run.”
中国香港入局虚拟资产ETF
2023年推出虚拟资产交易平台发牌制度后，中国香港正在将虚拟资产OTC交易纳入监管，主流机构正积极布局相关资产。
Following the launch of the virtual asset trading platform licensing system in 2023, virtual asset OTC transactions are being regulated in Hong Kong, China, and mainstream institutions are actively deploying related assets.
据华泰证券研究报告，截至4月14日，中国香港已批准Hash Blockchain及OSL两张虚拟资产交易所牌照，同时批准包括嘉实国际等19家机构在内的虚拟资产管理牌照。中国香港财政司副司长黄伟纶在万向区块链、HashKey Group举办的Web3嘉年华论坛上表示，中国香港政府正修改法律，拟将虚拟资产OTC交易纳入监管，并允许中介机构提供虚拟资产、期货和ETF的交易。
According to the Chinese Securities Study, as of 14 April, Hong Kong, China, had approved two virtual asset exchange licence plates for Hash Blockchain and OSL, as well as virtual asset management licence plates for 19 institutions, including Kaji International. The Deputy Director General of the Treasury of Hong Kong, China, Wong Wai-hwan, stated at the Web3 Carnival Forum, held in Bandung, HashKey Group, that the Government of Hong Kong, China, was in the process of amending its legislation to include virtual asset OTC transactions in its supervision and to allow intermediaries to provide virtual assets, futures, and ETF transactions./b>
这是继美国首批比特币现货ETF获批上市后，亚洲首次获批现货比特币和以太币ETF产品。
This was the first time that the first United States-based spot ETF of Bitcoin and Ether ETF products had been issued in Asia after the first batch of such products had been marketed in the United States.
美国当地时间1月10日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）首次批准11只比特币现货ETF，并授权以上ETF产品在1月11日开始上市交易。据光大证券研究所统计，截至4月19日，这批比特币现货ETF累计净流入金额约123.2亿美元。
On 10 January, local United States time, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved for the first time 11 currency spot ETFs and authorized the above-mentioned ETF products to start trading on 11 January. According to the ISI, as of 19 April, the accumulated net inflows of such currency spot ETFs amounted to approximately $12.32 billion.
而4月15日，三家国内头部公募基金旗下香港子公司已获得中国香港证监会原则上批准将发行虚拟资产现货ETF产品，分别是博时国际、华夏基金（香港）、嘉实国际。
On 15 April, the Hong Kong subsidiary of the three domestic head fund-raising funds was approved in principle by the CSRC of Hong Kong, China, for the release of the virtual assets spot ETF products, namely, Bo Time International, Huaxia Foundation (Hong Kong) and Kaji International.
值得注意的是，中国香港此次与比特币现货ETF同步原则性批准的还有以太币现货ETF，领先美国。华泰证券认为，此举“或印证中国香港正积极布局虚拟资产。”其还指出，与美国不同，中国香港虚拟资产ETF或将同时允许现金及实物申赎，在提高流动性和价格发现等方面更具优势。
It is worth noting that Hong Kong, China, is also leading the United States with an ETF in taut currency, which was approved in principle at the same time as the spot ETF in Bitcoin. According to the Chinese securities, this approach “or confirms that Hong Kong, China, is actively developing virtual assets.” It also notes that, unlike the United States, the Virtual ETF in Hong Kong, China, which will allow both cash and in-kind foreclosures, is more advantageous in terms of increased liquidity and price discovery.
上述币圈从业人士告诉时代财经：“整体来看，行业预估中国香港的ETF规模短期不会太高，整体还是以华尔街ETF为主，但未来逐步在更多地方获批将是趋势。”
The above-mentioned financial circles have told the Times that “the industry as a whole anticipates that the ETF in Hong Kong, China, will not be too large in the short term, and that it will be dominated by ETF on Wall Street, but that it will be a trend in the future to gain approval in more places.”
谁将获益？
随着挖矿活动逐步从分散走向集中，美国本土已经成为挖矿的主要阵地。回顾过去几次减半事件，比特币价值在每次减半后都会达到新高，有助于缓解挖矿奖励周期性下降和经营成本的增加。
As mining activities gradually move from fragmentation to concentration, the United States mainland has become the main position for mining. Looking back at the past few halves, bitcoin values will reach new heights after halving each time, helping to mitigate the decline in mining incentives and the increase in operating costs.
但行业竞争正在加剧，随之而来的还有成本的不断升高。虚拟货币行业逐渐发展，矿商的回报正逐渐降低，且人工智能行业对电力的高需求也推高了矿商的电力成本。矿商不仅需要面对逐步走低的回报，还面临着与科技公司竞争能源资源的生存困境。蓬勃发展的人工智能业务也属于高能耗业务，而科技“大厂”能够支付的电力成本更高。这意味着，对挖矿来说，行业内及行业间竞争都将加剧。
But competition in the industry is increasing, with rising costs associated with it. The evolution of the virtual money industry, the decline in returns for miners, and the high demand for electricity in the artificial intelligence sector have pushed the cost of electricity for miners. Miners need not only to face lower returns, but also to compete with technology companies for the survival of their energy resources.
但同时，与减半事件一同袭来，备受币圈关注的比特币符文（Runes）已在840000区块高度正式上线。
At the same time, however, in conjunction with the halving of the number of incidents, the Bitcoins (Runes), which are of interest to the currency circles, are officially on the line at a high level of 840,000 blocks.
符文正式上线后仅2天，便带来比特币链上费用快速增长。多位业内人士认为，有望创造比特币生态又一热点。
Only two days after the paper is officially online, it leads to a rapid increase in the costs of the Bitcoin chain. Many insiders believe that it is possible to create another hotspot of the Bitcoin ecology.
符文在铭文基础上进行改进，方便在比特币UTXO（未花费的输出）内直接部署资产。
The text is improved on the basis of an inscription to facilitate the direct deployment of assets within the bitcoin UTXO (unspent output).
铭文是对比特币每一聪（比特币最小不可分割单位）赋予唯一性编号的技术协议，其曾带来比特币网络生态的现象级爆发。符文则是在铭文基础上改进，即在比特币网络上基于UTXO发行同质化代币。符文协议部署的代币资产将直观地记录信息到比特币链上，即写入比特币UTXO的OP-RETURN字段内。
The motto is a technical protocol that gives unique numbers to every bitcoin (the smallest indivisible unit of bitcoins) and that has led to a phenomenonal outbreak of Bitcoin network ecology. The motto is improved on the basis of the motto, that is, the distribution of homogenous coins on the Bitcoin network based on UTXO. The token assets deployed in the token protocol will record the information in a visual way into the bitcoin chain, which is written in the bitcoin UTXO OP-RETURN field.
据国盛证券区块链点评，自4月20日8：09上线以来，当天因符文活动产生的比特币链上费用占比高达57.7%，而此前比特币链上费用以传统比特币转账为主。就840000这一区块来说产生的费用为37.626BTC，这个数字超过挖矿激励，即3.125BTC的10倍。
According to an assessment of the chain of securities blocks of the State, since April 20th, 8,09, the price of the bitcoin chain from the symmetrical activity on that day has been as high as 57.7 per cent, whereas the cost of the bitcoin chain was previously dominated by traditional bitcoin transfers. For the 840,000 block, the cost is 37.626 BTC, a figure that exceeds the mining incentive, or 10 times that of the 3.125 BTC.
“继铭文后，符文有望带再次推动比特币链上费用快速增长，利好算力挖矿业。”国盛证券如此评价。
“Following the inscriptions, it is hoped that the paper will once again drive the fast-growing costs on the Bitcoin chain, so as to be productive in mining.” This is the assessment of State securities.
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