华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道
Reporter of the Summer Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn)
随着减半临近，比特币的价格在近期开始频繁波动。
As half of the price of Bitcoin approaches, prices have begun to fluctuate frequently in the near future.
本周比特币开局强劲，在4月8日早盘交易中飙升至7.2万美元上方，但触高后便一直处于下跌趋势，4月10日凌晨，比特币价格一度跌至6.8万美元低点，随后在6.9万美元附近徘徊。截至发稿，比特币最新交易价格为69468.4美元，日内跌幅2%。
The week began with a strong start in Bitcoin, which surged to over $72,000 in the morning trade on 8 April, but continued its downward trend after it hit high, with Bitcoin prices once falling to a low of $68,000 in the early hours of 10 April and then hovering around $690 million. As of the date of the release, Bitcoin’s latest transaction price was $694.68.4, a 2 per cent decline in the day.
根据Alternative数据显示，目前距离比特币减半仅剩10天，加密生态系统中的情绪仍处于“极度贪婪”状态。
According to Alternative data, only 10 days are left to halve Bitcoin, and emotions in encrypted ecosystems are still in a state of “extreme greed”.
伴随比特币价格的回调，山寨币也遭受严重打击。其中，Arkham (ARKM) 跌幅最大，下跌17.8%。过去24小时，在市值排名前200的代币中只有不足10%的代币上涨，其中仅有11个代币涨幅超过2%。
The return of bitcoin prices was accompanied by a severe blow to the mountain coins. Of these, Arkham (ARKM) experienced the largest fall, by 17.8 per cent, with less than 10 per cent of the top 200 in the last 24 hours, with only 11 of them rising by more than 2 per cent.
政策因素搅动币价
Policy factor stirs currency prices
今年以来，比特币涨势凶猛。Messari公司最新发布的报告显示，比特币在今年第一季度实现了69%的涨幅，现货比特币ETF是推动价格上涨的驱动因素，第一季度资金流入超过120亿美元。现货比特币ETF目前持有83.1万个比特币，价值约590亿美元。在此背景下，加密货币相关概念股Coinbase、MicroStrategy和Galaxy Digital的股价在第一季度也实现了大幅上涨。
The latest report released by Messari shows that Bitcoin increased by 69% in the first quarter of the year, and that the current Bitcoin ETF was the driving force behind the increase in prices, with an inflow of more than $12 billion in the first quarter. The spot Bitcoin ETF currently holds 831,000 bitcoins worth about $59 billion.
业内人士普遍认为，比特币减半事件将成为2024年的关键时刻，对加密货币市场将产生重大影响。比特币历史上共经历了3次减半，分别在2012年11月、2016年7月、2020年5月，在减半后一年，比特币价格均出现了大幅上涨。
Industry is generally of the view that the halving of Bitcoin will be a critical time in 2024 and will have a major impact on the crypto-currency market. Bitcoin has experienced three cuts in its history, with significant increases in Bitcoin prices one year after halving in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020, respectively.
商业银行Corestone Capital创始人Will McDonough表示，现货比特币ETF已经降低了许多人进入该资产类别的门槛。随着主要经纪公司开始允许配置此类产品，这一趋势将会扩大，进入这一领域的高净值投资者的新群体将与几周后比特币减半同时发生。
According to Will McDonough, founder of commercial bank Corestone Capital, the spot Bitcoin ETF has lowered the threshold for many people to enter the asset class. As major brokerage companies begin to allow such products to be configured, this trend will widen, and new groups of high net investors in this area will halve Bitcoin in a few weeks.
尽管如此，近期比特币的价格却在减半前频繁震荡波动。4月2日，比特币遭遇大规模抛售，价格迅速走低。其中一个原因或是由于美国政府抛售了部分所持比特币。美国政府从Bitfinex黑客案、丝绸之路等相关案件中，没收了大量的比特币，目前是全球第六大的比特币巨鲸，持有超过21万枚比特币，现价约139.7亿美元。而根据Arkham Intelligence的数据显示，4月2日，美国政府执行了一项涉及近20亿美元的比特币转账。该消息传出后，比特币进一步下跌，跌破6.5万美元，此后略有反弹。而在4月8日，比特币价格在迅速走高之后又再次回落。
One reason is that the US government sold some of the bitcoin held by it. The US government confiscated a large amount of bitcoin from cases related to the Bitfinex hacker case, the Silk Road, etc., and is now the sixth largest Bitcoin whale in the world, holding more than 210,000 bitcoins, with a current price of about $1.37 billion.
值得注意的是，在比特币价格冲破历史高点后，一些长期持有者开始选择套现。Glassnode数据显示，自2023年底比特币价格突破4万美元以来，长期持有者（链上持有155天以上）的持仓一直在持续下降，而短期持有者的持仓则相对应地在持续上升。在这段时间里，“老韭菜”抛售了约90万个比特币。
It is worth noting that some long-term holders began to choose to hedge after Bitcoin prices broke through historical highs. Glasnode data show that long-term holders (more than 155 days in the chain) have continued to fall, while short-term holders have continued to rise. During this period, the “old man” sold about 900,000 bitcoins.
“面对比特币价格波动，投资者首先需要保持冷静，理性分析市场动态。”中国通信工业协会两化融合委员会副会长吴高斌向《华夏时报》记者表示，比特币减半是一个重要的市场事件，但投资者需要注意到，减半并不是价格的唯一驱动因素，其他如市场需求、监管政策等因素，同样会对价格产生影响。
“In the face of bitcoin price volatility, investors first need to remain calm and analyse market dynamics rationally.” Wu Goobin, Vice-President of the Integration Committee of the China Communications Industry Association, stated to the Washington Times that the halving of bitcoin is an important market event, but investors need to note that halving is not the only driver of prices, and that other factors, such as market demand, regulatory policies and so on, have an impact on prices.
4月9日，美国财政部副部长Wally Adeyemo表示，越来越多的恶意行为者使用虚拟货币规避经济制裁，财政部需要扩大权力来有效打击非法加密融资。他表示，主要问题是加密货币和去中心化金融（DeFi）的使用让不良行为者隐藏自己的身份并使用虚拟货币转移资源，尽管财政部尽了最大努力，但恶意行为者仍然在寻求新的方式来转移资源，比如加密混币器或者场外数字资产交易所。
On 9 April, the US Vice-Minister of Finance, Wally Adeyemo, stated that more and more malicious actors were using virtual currency to circumvent economic sanctions, and that the Treasury needed to expand its powers to effectively combat illegal financial encryption. He said that the main problem was the use of encrypted money and decentralized finance (DeFi) to allow undesirable actors to hide their identities and use virtual currency to transfer resources. Despite the Treasury’s best efforts, malicious actors were still seeking new ways to transfer resources, such as encrypted currency blenders or off-site digital asset exchanges.
为此，Wally Adeyemo呼吁建立一个能够防止这种活动的执法制度，因为越来越多的恐怖分子、跨国犯罪分子和流氓国家转向数字资产。该言论发布后，加密市场跌势扩大。
To that end, Wally Adeyemo called for the establishment of a law enforcement system that would prevent such activities, as more and more terrorists, transnational criminals and rogue states turned to digital assets. After that statement, the crypto market was on the rise.
南开首席经济学家论坛副秘书长李泳梅向《华夏时报》记者表示，历史数据表明，比特币的减半往往伴随着中期到长期的价格上涨趋势，但这并非绝对规律，且短期内市场可能出现剧烈波动。因此，投资者需有长期投资的心理准备，并基于自身的风险承受能力和市场研究做出决策。
The Under-Secretary-General of the South China Chief Economists Forum, Li Xiaomei, told the Washington Times journalist that historical data showed that the halving of Bitcoin was often accompanied by medium- to long-term price increases, but that this was not an absolute pattern, and that the market could be volatile in the short term. Thus, investors needed to be psychologically prepared to invest in the long term, and to make decisions based on their own risk tolerance and market research.
矿工如何应对减半事件？
How do miners respond to the halving of incidents?
相较于币价的变动，减半事件将更为直接地影响比特币矿业的发展。
The halving of events will have a more direct impact on the development of the Bitcoin mining industry than changes in currency prices.
比特币矿工收入在3月份增长至20.1亿美元，创下历史新高，涨幅达到44.9%。CryptoQuant数据显示，3月7日，矿工每日收入达到7860万美元，超过了上一轮加密牛市期间2021年4月创下的峰值。尽管收获颇丰，但比特币矿工一直在抛售他们的资产，以迎接即将到来的比特币区块奖励减半。
Bitcoin miners’ revenues rose to $2.01 billion in March, reaching an all-time high of 44.9%, and CryptoQuant data show that on 7 March, miners earned $78.6 million a day, surpassing their peak in April 2021 during the last round of encrypted cattle. Despite good harvests, Bitcoin miners have been selling their assets in anticipation of the imminent halving of the Bitcoin incentives.
艾文智略首席投资官曹辙向《华夏时报》记者表示，在减半之前，矿工集体抛售比特币的原因可能是为了应对生产成本的增加和市场的不确定性。矿工的盈利能力受到减半的影响，他们需要寻找其他收入来源来弥补减少的收入。此外，交易费用的下降也给矿工的盈利能力带来了压力。这可能会导致比特币价格下跌，因为矿工需要卖出更多的比特币来获得利润。
Ivan Jillo’s chief investment officer, Cao Cao, told the Washington Times reporter that the reason why miners sold Bitcoins collectively before halving was probably to deal with increased production costs and market uncertainty. Miners’ profitability was reduced by half, and they needed to find other sources of income to cover the reduced income.
随着减半的临近，各家矿企都在竞相为此做好准备。统计数据显示，自2023年2月以来，13家顶级矿业公司已经下单了价值超过10亿美元的矿机订单。曹辙认为，随着矿工收益的下降，许多小型矿池可能会退出加密货币挖矿行业，而大型矿池则可能会采取更加专业化和规模化的经营模式。
Statistics show that since February 2023, 13 top mining companies have placed orders worth more than $1 billion. As miners’ revenues fall, Cao’s view is that many small-scale ponds may withdraw from the encrypted money mining industry, while large ponds may adopt a more professional and scaled business model.
据算力指数显示，美国的平均托管费率略低于0.08美元/千瓦时，许多美国矿商在减半后可能面临现金流挑战，从而被迫进行大规模的设备升级。根据CoinMetrics的数据，大多数行业目前都在使用效率相对较低的机器，这些矿商需要0.05美元/千瓦时或更低的运营成本才能在减半后保持健康的毛利率。
According to the Arithmetic Index, the average hosting rate in the United States is just under US$0.08/kWh, and many American miners may face cash flow challenges after halving, forcing large-scale equipment upgrades. According to CoinMetrics, most industries are currently using relatively inefficient machines, and these miners require US$ 0.05/kWh or less to maintain a healthy Maori rate after halving.
值得注意的是，比特币挖矿活动对能源的消耗正在急剧加速。今年3月，比特币矿工消耗了创纪录的19.6吉瓦电力，高于2023年同期的12.1吉瓦。2023年比特币挖矿消耗了121太瓦时的电力，与阿根廷的电力使用情况类似。英国剑桥大学最新数据显示，比特币挖矿活动的耗电量占全球用电总量的0.69%。
It is noteworthy that the consumption of energy by bitcoin mining is accelerating dramatically. In March this year, Bitcoin miners consumed a record 19.6 gigawatts of electricity, up from 12.1 gigawatts in the same period in 2023. Bitcoin mining consumed 121 watt-hours of electricity in 2023, similar to that used in Argentina.
美国政府方面估计，2023年全国高达2.3%的电力是137家加密货币矿场消耗的。与此同时，得克萨斯州居民的电费增加5%，也被认为与加密货币挖矿者导致电力需求增长直接相关。
For its part, the United States Government estimates that up to 2.3 per cent of the country’s electricity was consumed by 137 encrypted currency mines in 2023. At the same time, the increase in electricity costs for residents of Texas by 5 per cent is also considered to be directly linked to the increase in electricity demand caused by encrypted money miners.
对此，监管部门已经开始有所行动。美国总统拜登提出的2025财年预算案中提议，对加密货币挖矿者的总能源成本征税30%，适用于电网所供电力以及挖矿者自己发的电。该方案将分阶段实施，从2025年起征税10%，从2026年起征税20%，最后从2027年起征税30%。此外，美国监管部门已经围绕矿工用电量举行了多次听证会，讨论计划征收30%的惩罚性税收，以减少该行业对环境的巨大影响。
President Biden’s budget proposal for 2025 proposes a 30% tax on the total energy costs of encrypted money diggers, applicable to electricity supplied by the grid and to electricity delivered by the diggers themselves. The programme will be implemented in a phased manner, starting with 10% from 2025, 20% from 2025, and finally 30% from 2027. In addition, the United States regulators have held numerous hearings on electricity consumption by miners to discuss a 30% punitive tax plan to reduce the significant environmental impact of the industry.
目前，美国占据了全球算力的很大一部分，约占40%，但在对成本效率的追求下，该行业正在逐渐转向更加全球分散的模式。加密挖矿服务提供商Luxor Technology首席运营官Ethan Vera预计，约60万台S19系列计算机，正在移出美国，前往非洲和南美等地，这些地区的能源更便宜。
Currently, the United States accounts for a large share of global numeracy, about 40%, but, in pursuit of cost efficiency, the industry is moving towards a more globally dispersed model. Ethan Vera, chief operator of encryption mining provider Luxor Technology, estimates that about 600,000 S19 series computers are being moved out of the United States to places such as Africa and South America, where energy is cheaper.
随着矿商为即将到来的减半做好准备，许多矿商正在探索非洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲的新兴矿业市场，这些市场的电力极其便宜。例如，Bitfarms在阿根廷和巴拉圭努力布局；Bitdeer正在扩大其在不丹的产能；Marathon正在进入阿联酋和巴拉圭；Hashlabs在埃塞俄比亚提供托管解决方案。
As miners prepare for the imminent reduction of half, many miners are exploring emerging mining markets in Africa, Latin America and Asia, where electricity is extremely cheap. For example, Bitfarms is working in Argentina and Paraguay; Bitdeer is expanding its capacity in Bhutan; Marathon is entering the United Arab Emirates and Paraguay; and Hashrabs is offering hosting solutions in Ethiopia.
吴高斌表示，减半后，矿工获得的比特币奖励将减半，挖矿难度也将相应增加。这将导致一部分矿工退出市场，挖矿设备的更新换代速度加快，整个比特币矿业将更加高效、环保。从长远来看，比特币矿业的发展趋势将朝着更高效、更环保的方向发展。
In the long run, the development of the Bitcoin mine will move in the direction of more efficient and greener mining. This will lead to the withdrawal of a number of miners from the market, an increase in the rate of renewal of mining equipment, and an increase in the efficiency and environmental protection of the entire Bitcoin mine.
盘古智库高级研究员江瀚也向《华夏时报》记者表示，减半可能推动比特币矿业向更加集中和专业化的方向发展。随着挖矿难度的增加和成本的上升，只有那些拥有强大算力和高效运营能力的矿工才能在市场中立足。这可能导致比特币矿业的竞争格局发生变化，大型矿池和专业化挖矿机构将逐渐占据主导地位。
As the difficulty and cost of mining increases, only miners with a strong numeric and efficient operational capacity will be able to take their place in the market. This could lead to a change in the pattern of competition in the Bitcoin mining industry, with large ponds and specialized mining agencies gradually taking the lead.
责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳
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