作者：0xGaoBit
根据链上数据显示，比特币最近在 2.8-3.5 万美元附近已经持续积累了大量的筹码，已形成了强有力的支撑，除了 BTC、ETH 等主流币上涨外，GameFi、Meme 等板块，也都出现了轮动上涨，市场逐渐呈现出加密牛市的迹象。
According to the data on the chain, Bitcoin has recently accumulated a significant amount of chips in the vicinity of $2.8 to $3.5 million, and has formed a strong support for the rise in the mainstream currency, except for BTC, ETH and others, such as the GameFi, Meme and others, which have seen a rotational rise, and the market is gradually showing signs of an encrypted cattle market.
但是根据以往牛熊周期的规律，加密市场大牛市的开启，一般要到比特币区块产量减半之后。
However, according to the pattern of past cattle and bear cycles, the opening of an encrypted market for cattle usually comes after the production of bitcoin blocks has been halved.
而且今时不同往日，加密货币市场体量已经相当大了，仅靠比特币区块产量减半这一利好并不足以开启下一轮加密大牛市，它还需要其它利好因素的配合，下面我们盘点下引爆下一次加密大牛市的5大因素。
Moreover, the size of the market for encrypted money is already quite large today, and halving the production of the bitcoin block alone will not be enough to open the next round of encrypted bulls, and it will need to be complemented by other factors, such as the five elements of the next encrypted bull market that we will take stock of below.
众所周知，为了将通胀率控制在 2% 的目标范围内，自2022年3月以来，美联储已经进行了11次加息，累计上调基准利率525个基点。
, as is well known, since the beginning of the year > 3 > strong > 11 < strong > < strong >, the Fed has conducted a cumulative upward adjustment of the base rate from > 525 /strong < strong > >, to keep inflation within the target of 2% < strong > < strong > < < strong > >.
然而，随着利率逐渐上升，虽然通胀率有所下降，但不可避免地提高了整个社会的借贷成本，加息实际上相当于给经济踩刹车，持续加息可能会抑制经济的增长。
However, as interest rates gradually rise, while inflation has declined, they inevitably raise borrowing costs for the entire society, raising interest rates that are in effect equivalent to a brake on the economy, and continuing interest increases may inhibit economic growth.
因此，尽管当前美国的通胀率尚未达到2%的目标，甚至当前经济依然表现强劲，但持续加息或维持高利率政策会对美国经济带来不小的压力，可能会引发银行破产、工人罢工等一系列问题。
Thus, while the current inflation rate in the United States has not yet reached the 2 per cent target and even the current economy is still strong, sustained interest rate hikes or maintenance of high interest rate policies would put considerable pressure on the United States economy and could trigger a series of problems such as bank bankruptcy and workers' strikes.
根据市场预测，2024年美联储可能会采取降息政策，以缓解一些经济上的紧张局势。
此外，在俄乌冲突和巴以冲突中，美国通过提供军事援助的形式参与了这些冲突，随着冲突的升级，美国提供的军事援助金额持续增加，这可能导致美元货币供应量的进一步上升。
In addition, in the context of the conflict in the Russian-Israeli conflict, in which the United States was involved through the provision of military assistance, the amount of military assistance provided by the United States continued to increase as the conflict escalated, which could lead to a further increase in the availability of United States dollars.
随着美联储的降息和放水，将会有更多的美元流动性释放到风险市场中，必然会有一部分资金将会流入到加密货币市场，这当然利好加密市场。
As the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates and discharges water, more dollar liquidity will be released into risk markets, and a portion of the funds will inevitably flow into the crypto-currency market, which is of course good for encryption markets.
根据 buybitcoinworldwide 平台数据统计，目前比特币投资产品（包括 ETP 和封闭式基金）持有的 BTC 数量为 80多万枚，市值超过了 280亿美元，占到了比特币总供应量的 3.9%。
According to data from the buybitcoinworldwide platform, the current number of BTC holdings in Bitcoin investment products (including ETP and closed funds) is more than 800,000 and the market value exceeds $28 billion, accounting for 3.9 per cent of the total supply of Bitcoin.
但是，这些衍生品也存在着诸多缺点，包括较高的交易费用（例如灰度比特币信托基金 GBTC 的管理费率为 2%），低流动性和跟踪误差（GBTC 在一级和二级市场之间的溢价最高曾经一度达到了 -50% 以上）。
However, these derivatives also suffer from a number of disadvantages, including higher transaction costs (e.g., a 2 per cent management rate for the Greybitcoin Trust Fund), low liquidity and tracking errors (the highest premium between the primary and secondary markets was once -50 per cent or more).
而且，这些产品往往具有较高的资金门槛和技术门槛，从而无法为广大投资者提供服务。
Moreover, these products often have high financial and technical thresholds that prevent them from providing services to a wide range of investors.
另外，投资者持有和管理比特币的门槛依然很高，例如需要创建钱包、管理私钥等，在一些国家甚至还需要面临税务报告等问题，过高的门槛导致许多投资者并不愿意购买比特币。
In addition, the thresholds for investor holding and managing bitcoins remain high, such as the need to create wallets, manage private keys and even face tax reporting in some countries, which has led many investors to be reluctant to buy bitcoins.
而现货比特币 ETF 的推出，将会改变这一局面，它将会大幅降低比特币的投资门槛。
The introduction of the spot bitcoin ETF will change the situation and will significantly lower the investment threshold for bitcoin.
例如，和灰度 GBTC 目前 2% 的管理费用相比，现货比特币 ETF 的费用基本上在 1% 左右，而且市场上将会存在多只现货比特币 ETF，相互之间的竞争将会进一步降低基金管理费用。
For example, the cost of the spot bitcoin ETF
现货比特币 ETF 还将会解决私钥保管等安全性问题、基金合规性等问题，从而为广大投资者扫清障碍。
The spot Bitcoin ETF will also address security issues such as private key custody, fund compliance, etc., thus clearing the way for a wide range of investors.
所以，以贝莱德、富达为首的金融巨头所申请的现货比特币 ETF 一旦通过，将会为加密市场带来天量的增量资金和用户，传统证券市场上的资金将通过现货比特币 ETF 这个“通道”源源不断的流入到加密市场。
So, when adopted, the spot bitcoin ETF requested by the Belett, Fuda-led financial giant will bring the bulk of the incremental funds and users of to the encryption market.
根据目前的进度来看，2024年 SEC 很可能会批准通过现货比特币 ETF，现货比特币 ETF，很可能是下一次加密大牛市的最大推动力量。
According to current progress, in 2024 the SEC is likely to approve the use of spot bitcoin ETF, spotcoin ETF, which is likely to be the biggest driving force for the next encryption of Big Bull.
随着加密行业的持续发展，围绕着比特币的衍生投资品也越来越多，例如现货/期货比特币 ETF、比特币信托基金等，加密行业正朝着合规方向迈进。
As the encryption industry continues to develop, there is also an increasing number of derivatives around Bitcoin, such as spot/foresee bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin Trust, etc., and the encryption industry is moving towards compliance.
比特币已成为一种公共投资品，越来越多的上市企业和私营企业正在以不同的方式进入加密市场，华尔街的金融巨头们也积极布局加密货币领域。
Bitcoin has become a public investment, and an increasing number of listed and private enterprises are entering the encryption market in different ways, and the financial giants on Wall Street are actively developing the encryption currency field.
尽管SEC主席对加密货币持保守立场，但从SEC与灰度、SEC与XRP等案件中可以看出，美国立法机构中有越来越多的人开始支持加密行业健康发展，SEC并不能单方面阻碍加密行业的发展。
Despite the conservative position of the President of SEC on cryptographic currency, the growing number of people in the United States legislature who have begun to support the development of the health of the encryption industry from SEC
在过去几年中，加密市场经历了快速的发展和创新，也吸引了越来越多的投资者和创新者，在这种背景下，一些立法机构开始认识到加密行业的潜力，并意识到制定合理、透明监管框架的重要性。
In the context of the rapid development and innovation of the encryption market over the past few years, which has also attracted a growing number of investors and innovators, some legislatures have begun to recognize the potential of the encryption industry and the importance of a sound and transparent regulatory framework.
这种积极的监管政策有助于为加密行业提供更加清晰、可预测的规则，并为投资者和相关加密企业提供信心和稳定性，从而促进加密行业的健康和有序发展。
Such proactive regulatory policies help to provide clearer and predictable rules for the encryption industry and provide confidence and stability for investors and related encryption enterprises, thus contributing to the healthy and orderly development of the encryption industry.
现在把目光转向加密市场本身，2024 年加密市场有两个确定性的大利好，一个是以太坊坎昆升级，另一个是比特币区块产量减半。
Now turning to the encryption market itself, in 2024 the encryption market had two definite advantages: one was to upgrade in Tai Jin Cancún and the other was to halve the production of bitcoin blocks.
根据链上数据预测，下一次比特币区块产量减半将会发生在 2024年4月底，届时，挖矿奖励将从每个区块 6.25BTC 减半至每个区块 3.125 BTC。
predicts, based on the data on the chain, that the next half of the production of bitcoins will take place at the end of the month of < strong > , when the mining incentive will be halved from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.
这会降低新比特币的挖矿速度，从而有效降低其通胀率，比特币目前的通胀率为 1.7% ，待明年减半完成后，通胀率将会降至 0.84%。
This will reduce the pace of mining in New Bitcoin, thereby effectively reducing its inflation rate, which is currently 1.7 per cent, and will fall to 0.84 per cent next year, when it is halved.
一方面，比特币的开采速度在下降，目前仅剩下不到 8% 的 BTC 还未开采出来；另一方面，随着加密行业的不断发展，持有比特币的人数在不断上升，根据供需规律，单个比特币的价格必然会上涨。
On the one hand, the pace of extraction of Bitcoin has been declining and less than 8 per cent of BTC remains to be mined; on the other hand, as the encryption industry continues to grow, the number of people holding bitcoin is rising, and individual bitcoin prices are bound to rise according to the pattern of supply and demand.
而且，根据前三次的减半规律，在每次减半后，BTC 的价格都突破了新高，以此类推，下一轮牛市 BTC 的价格也必将会突破上一轮牛市的新高。
Moreover, according to the first three halves, BTC prices have reached a new high after each one has been halved, and the next round of BTC prices are bound to reach a new high in the last round.
根据以往的减半规律，比特币价格将会在减半一年半后达到牛市高点，以此类推，下次减半后比特币的最高价格将会出现在 2025年12月底。
According to the previous halving pattern, bitcoin prices would reach cattle heights one and a half years later, by the way, and by the end of December 2025, by the end of the next halving.
除了比特币区块产量减半之外，以太坊坎昆升级大概率将会在 2024年完成，虽然利好的规模比不上比特币区块产量减半，但每次加密大牛市也都离不开以太坊的功劳。
With the exception of halving the production of bitcoin blocks, the likely rate of graduation in Taiwan Cancún will be completed by 2024, and while the benefits will not be as large as the production of bitcoins will be reduced by half, it will not be possible to get rid of Taicha's credit for each encrypted bull market.
例如，由以太坊引领的 1CO、DeFi、NFT 等，都是引爆加密牛市的重要因素。
For example, 1CO, DeFi, NFT, etc. led by Etheria, are all important factors in the detonation of the encrypted cattle market.
以太坊坎昆升级，主要利好于 Layer2 网络，将会进一步降低以太坊 Layer2 网络 gas 费用，提升 Layer2 网络性能，从而推动区块链技术的大规模应用。
The upgrading of the Etherm Cancún, mainly to the advantage of the Layer2 network, will further reduce the cost of the Ether's Layer2 network gas and enhance the performance of the Layer2 network, thereby promoting large-scale applications of block chain technology.
比特币区块产量减半和以太坊坎昆升级，这两大确定性的利好也将是下一次加密牛市的重要推动力量。
The benefits of halving the production of the Bitcoin block and the upgrading of the Ethio Cancún will also be an important driving force for the next encrypted cattle market.
近年来，全球地缘政治风险的不断扩大已经成为国际社会关注的焦点。从俄乌冲突到巴以冲突，这些地缘政治事件的发生，不仅对当地造成了巨大的冲击，也对全球经济和金融市场带来了不确定性和波动性。
In recent years, the growing global geopolitical risks have become the focus of the international community’s attention. From the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, these geopolitical events not only have a huge impact on the ground, but have also brought uncertainty and volatility to the global economy and financial markets.
在这样的不确定性环境下，比特币作为一种去中心化的数字资产，避险作用日益凸显。
In such an uncertain environment, the risk avoidance role of Bitcoin as a decentralised digital asset is becoming increasingly evident.
与传统金融资产如美元、黄金相比，比特币的独特之处在于其不受机构的控制，这使得比特币在地缘政治风险加剧时，能够提供一种避险选择，从而为投资者提供一定程度的资产保护。
The uniqueness of Bitcoin vis-à-vis traditional financial assets such as United States dollars and gold is that it is not subject to institutional control, which enables Bitcoin to provide a risk-avoidance option when geopolitical risks increase, thereby providing investors with a measure of asset protection.
首先，无论是俄乌冲突还是巴以冲突等，通常会导致当地货币贬值、金融市场动荡等问题，而比特币的交易和价值并不依赖于任何特定国家或地区，投资者可以通过比特币来规避当地货币和金融体系的不稳定性。
First, whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine or between Israel and Palestine, among others, often leads to problems such as the devaluation of local currencies, the volatility of financial markets, and the trade and value of Bitcoin is not dependent on any particular country or region, and investors can avoid the instability of local monetary and financial systems through Bitcoin.
其次，比特币的总量恒定为 2100万枚，与此相对应的是，许多国家的中央银行可以通过发行货币来应对地缘政治风险带来的经济压力，这就会导致通货膨胀和货币贬值，在这种情况下，比特币的稀缺性和抗通胀属性使其成为一种抵御通胀风险的选择。
Second, by contrast, central banks in many countries can respond to the economic pressures of geopolitical risks by issuing currency, which can lead to inflation and currency depreciation, in which case the scarcity and anti-inflationary attributes of Bitcoin make it an anti-inflationary risk option.
总之，加密市场目前已经成长为一个价值超万亿美元的市场，比特币区块产量减半和以太坊坎昆升级，或许并不足以引爆下一轮加密货币大牛市，但如果考虑到现货比特币/以太坊 ETF 的引入、全球经济环境以及地缘政治风险加剧等因素的影响，众多利好因素的叠加，足以引爆下一次的加密货币大牛市。
In short, the encryption market has now grown into a trillion-dollar market, and the halving of the production of bitcoin blocks and the upgrading of Ether Cancún may not be sufficient to set off the next round of crypto-currency bulls, but if one takes into account the impact of the introduction of spot bitcoins/Ethercoat ETFs, the global economic environment and increased geopolitical risks, there are many good factors that add up enough to set off the next crypto-currency El Niño.
你们认为还有哪些因素会助力下一次牛市爆发呢？评论区留下你们的观点，一起探讨！
What else do you think is going to contribute to the next cattle eruption? The comment area leaves you with your point of view, and we'll discuss it together!
P.S 本文不构成任何投资建议
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