备受全球投资者期待的伯克希尔年度股东大会时隔两届回归线下,其中最受关注的正是管理层Q&A环节。以下为2022年伯克希尔股东会问答环节的报道实录。
The
Annual Stockholders' Conference in Birkhshire, which is expected by global investors, is divided into two rounds of returns, the most focused of which is the management Q& A section. The following is an account of the question-and-answer segment of the 2022 Stockholders' Conference in Birkhshire.
看点一览:伯克希尔在今年一季度买入接近400亿美元的股票,增持雪佛龙和持续购入动视暴雪股票也是今天的新消息;未来仍会回购,但取决于同期投资决策;芒格称在中国能以更低价格买到更优质的公司;巴菲特:股市就像赌场,过去两年尤其如此;另外巴菲特在回答有关通胀影响的问题时,一再告诫年轻人将更多的精力放在投资自己身上。
Take a look: Birkhshire buys nearly $40 billion in equities in the first quarter of this year, increasing the number of Chevrons and continuing purchases of snowstorm stocks is also today's news; future buy-backs are still subject to investment decisions over the same period; Manger claims that higher-quality companies can be bought at lower prices in China; Buffett: stock markets are like casinos, especially in the last two years; and Buffett, responding to questions about the impact of inflation, has repeatedly warned young people to focus more on investing in themselves.
根据官方公布的日程表(奥马哈比纽约慢一个小时),今年的问答环节大约将回答60个问题。在上午的安排中,除了巴菲特与芒格外,巴菲特“接班人”格雷格.阿贝尔 (Greg Abel)与分管伯克希尔保险业务的阿吉特.贾恩(Ajit Jain)也将回答问题,但下午的日程只有两位90岁老人参加。(以下解答以时间倒序排列)
According to the official calendar (one hour late in New York, Omahaby), this year's question-and-answer session will answer about 60 questions. In the morning, apart from Buffett and Manger, Greg Abel and Ajit Jain, who are part of the Berkhshire insurance business, will also answer the questions, but only two 90-year-olds will be on the afternoon schedule. (The answer below is in chronological order)
巴菲特:未来仍会回购 但取决于同期投资决策
Buffett: Future buybacks, but depending on investment decisions over the same period
在谈及回购伯克希尔股票的看法时,巴菲特表示,如果他们可以在购买自己喜欢的企业或股票回购之间做出选择,伯克希尔会选择前者。重要的是,能够持续提高股票的价值。早些时候,巴菲特曾表示四月以来伯克希尔还没有回购过股票。
Referring to the idea of buying back Birkhshire stocks, Buffett said that, if they could choose between buying their preferred business or stock buybacks, Birkhshire would choose the former. The important thing was to be able to continuously increase the value of the stock. Earlier, Buffett had said that there had been no stock buyback since April.
芒格给年轻学生的人生建议:找到你不擅长的事情,然后回避它。
Manger's life advice to young students: find something you're not good at and avoid it.
巴菲特评价比特币:没有价值
Buffett evaluates bitcoin: has no value
巴菲特在股东大会上再次抨击加密货币称,和农场、公寓不同,比特币并不会产出价值,它的价格只会取决于下一个购买它的人愿意出多少钱。加密货币现在或许因为炒作而仿佛拥有了魔法般的吸引力,但它本身没有生产能力。
Buffett once again criticized the crypto-currency claim at the shareholders’ meeting that, unlike farms and apartments, bitcoin does not produce value, and its price will depend only on how much the next buyer would like to pay. The crypto-currency may now seem magically attractive because of the fiction, but it does not have its own productive capacity.
芒格表示,在他的生活中会尽量避免愚蠢、邪恶,以及让他与其他人相比看起来很糟糕的事情,而比特币兼具这三点
Manger said that in his life he would try to avoid stupidity, evil and things that look bad compared to others, and that bitcoin had all three of them.
巴菲特:这一轮通胀和以往不一样
Buffett: This round of inflation is not the same as it used to be
在回应股东“通胀对伯克希尔业务有何影响”提问时,巴菲特表示在他们看来许多公司表现“非常不错”。巴菲特进一步阐述道,这一轮通胀与此前的经验有很大区别。在公司旗下的家具店里,虽然家具的价格快速上升,但富有的人们依然愿意买单。但早些年有的时候大家手里都没钱,甚至连糖果都买不起。
In response to shareholders’ questions about “the impact of inflation on Birkhshire’s operations”, Buffett said that many companies seemed “very good” in their view. Buffett further explained that this round of inflation was very different from previous experience. In the furniture store under the company’s flag, while the price of furniture rose rapidly, the rich were still willing to pay for it.
巴菲特表示,政府已经向人们发放了很多钱,在某些时候这些钱不可能值那么多钱。不过巴菲特也捍卫了“直升机撒钱”政策的决定,认为这是正确的选择。
Buffett says that the government has already disbursed a lot of money to people, which in some cases is unlikely to be worth that much. But Buffett has also defended the decision to “helicopter the money” policy as the right choice.
芒格也赞同这种观点,并盛赞鲍威尔是个英雄。
Manger also shares this view and applauds Powell as a hero.
芒格:在中国能以更低价格买到更优质的公司
Mung: can buy higher quality companies in China at lower prices
在回应有关投资中国的问题时,芒格承认在中国做投资的确要比本土更难一些。但他在中国投资的原因是,能够在那里以更低的价格买到更好的公司。
In response to questions about investing in China, Munger admitted that investing in China was indeed more difficult than in the mainland. The reason why he had invested in China was that he could buy better companies there at lower prices.
巴菲特表示持续买入暴雪股票
Buffett says he's buying up a snowstorm stock on a continuous basis
巴菲特表示,在微软官宣收购后他们仍然在持续买入暴雪股票。截至昨天,伯克希尔拥有9.5%的暴雪股票,如果达到10%会提交报告。
Buffett said that they continued to buy snow stocks after Microsoft officials announced their takeover. As of yesterday, Birkhshire owned 9.5 per cent of the snow stocks, and would report if it reached 10 per cent.
对于最初的交易时机(微软官宣收购前一个月),巴菲特表示,这种事情以前也发生过。例如拜尔收购前的孟山都,或者IBM收购红帽公司。巴菲特同时表示,并不清楚监管们是否会批准微软的收购,但相信他们知道微软有这样的资金实力。
For the initial timing of the transaction (a month before Microsoft officials announced the acquisition), Buffett said that it had happened before. For example, Monsanto, or IBM, before Bayer, acquired Red Hat. Buffett also stated that it was not clear whether the regulators would approve Microsoft’s acquisition, but that they knew Microsoft had the financial power to do so.
巴菲特:伯克希尔坚持正直的企业文化
Buffett: Birkhter insists on a decent corporate culture
巴菲特表示,作为上市公司的管理层我们必须以身作则,做坏事就像滚雪球一样越滚越大,公司迟早会毁灭。芒格也补充道,相信伯克希尔的文化在他们离开后将延续下去,但对于许多其他公司来说可能不是这样。
Buffett said that, as the management of listed companies, we have to lead by example, doing bad things like snowballs is bigger and bigger, and the company will be destroyed sooner or later. Manger added, believing that the culture of Birkhshire will continue after they leave, but this may not be the case for many other companies.
巴菲特谈如何对抗通胀:投资你自己
Buffett talks about how to fight inflation: invest yourself.
巴菲特在股东会上表示,很多人会谈论通胀,但其实他们并不了解通胀未来会如何发展,而坦率的说,我们也不知道。我只能说,最好的对抗通胀的办法就是你自己的才能,你的钱会感受到通胀的压力,但你的才能不会。
Buffett said at the stockholders meeting that many people talk about inflation, but they don't know how inflation will go in the future, and frankly, we don't. I can only say that the best way to fight inflation is your own talent, and your money will feel inflationary pressure, but yours won't.
巴菲特:总是看到报纸报道“巴菲特买了什么”,但实际上是他的副手或其他人做的决定。这种误解是糟糕的,但最简单的事情依然是闭口不提。
Buffett: There's always a newspaper that says, "What Buffett bought," but it's actually a decision made by his deputy or someone else. This misunderstanding is bad, but the simplest thing is to keep it quiet.
巴菲特的“顿悟”时刻
Buffett's Time for "Delight"
巴菲特表示,在他19或20岁时读了一本书(格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》),然后发现他以前的想法都是错的。他在现场展现了两张PPT,意在表示不同的人从这两张图片中能够看到不同的东西(两张脸or花瓶、兔子or鸭子)。
Buffett said that he read a book when he was 19 or 20 years old (Greham's Smart Investor) and found out that his previous thoughts were wrong. He showed two PPTs on the scene to show that different people could see different things from the two pictures (two faces or vases, rabbits or ducks).
巴菲特坚信伯克希尔的企业文化将长存
Buffett believes that Birkhter's corporate culture will survive
在被问及“巴菲特和芒格都离开后,新的管理层会像现在一样经营么?”的问题时,巴菲特强调真正能让伯克希尔经营至今的关键因素是公司的企业文化,如果他明天就不在了,董事会能够理解“企业文化是运作这家公司的99.9%”。他希望伯克希尔不仅成为一家百年老店,而是成为一家永远存在的公司。希望在那段时间之后,人们会更好地了解伯克希尔的文化。
When asked, “Will the new management operate as it is now when both Buffett and Manger have left?”, Buffett stressed that the key factor in getting Birkhshire to run so far is the company’s corporate culture, and if he leaves tomorrow, the board of directors will understand that “business culture is 99.9% of the company that runs it.” He hoped that Birkhhir would become not just a 100-year-old shop, but a permanent company. It was hoped that, after that time, people would have a better understanding of Birkhhir’s culture.
巴菲特:应对超级通胀 最应该投资自己
Buffett: The best way to deal with hyperinflation is to invest in yourself.
在回答“超级通胀下你应该买哪只股票”的问题时,巴菲特回应称,这种时候更重要的是你个人具备的能力,别人交易的是你的能力,最好的投资就是开发你自己。
In response to the question about which stock you should buy under superinflation, Buffett responded that it was more important at a time like this that you had the ability, that you were being traded, and that the best investment was to develop yourself.
芒格同时在旁边打趣说,如果你的朋友推荐你在你的退休账户里放比特币,你就直接拒绝他好了。
Munger was at the same time making fun of you, saying that if your friend recommended you put bitcoin in your retirement account, you would simply reject him.
巴菲特谈投资时机:我们只是在觉得价格便宜的时候买入
Buffett talks about investment timing: we just buy it when we think it's cheap.
当现场观众问及“如何像伯克希尔那样善于把握投资时机”时,巴菲特回答称,我们并不会因为市场的情况或经济的情况而去买卖,因为我们对实际的情况也不清楚。在2008年金融危机时,大家都很恐慌,而我们也没有在那个时候抓住投资时机;我们也错失了2020年3月股市大跌的机会。所以我们并不是非常善于精确掌握投资时机,我们只是在觉得投资对象价格便宜的时候买入,这其实是小学四年级就能明白的道理。
When the live audience asked, “How to be as good at timing as Birkhshire,” Buffett replied, “We do not buy and sell because of the market or the economy, because we don’t know the real situation either. In the 2008 financial crisis, everyone was panicking, and we didn’t catch the investment timing at that time; we also missed the opportunity of the stock market falling in March 2020. So we were not very good at keeping the investment timing precisely, and we bought it when we thought it was cheap, which is what we could understand in the fourth grade of primary school.
巴菲特:美国运通和苹果的回购为伯克希尔带来了巨大收益
Buffett: American Express and Apple buybacks bring a great deal to Birkhshire
巴菲特在股东会上讲道,在伯克希尔多年前投资美国运通后,随着多年来美国运通的回购,伯克希尔在美国运通的持股比例从11.2%提高到了20%,而在苹果的投资上也是如此,过去几年来苹果的回购为伯克希尔带来了可观的收益。
Buffett spoke at the Shareholder Conference that, after investing in the American Express before Birkhshire, the shareholding of the American Express increased from 11.2 per cent to 20 per cent over the years, as did the investment in apples, which over the past few years had brought significant returns to Birkhshire.
芒格痛批投机情绪
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Mungering speculation {\/strang}
芒格表示,我们现在看到的几乎是某种投机狂潮。一些带算法的计算机与其他同样使用算法的计算机进行交易。随后那些没有经验的市场参与者也在接受经纪商建议(入场)。这些“赌场活动”合法地与长期投资混在一起很奇怪。
Manger says that we are now seeing almost some kind of speculation. Some algorithmic computers trade with others that use algorithms as well.
芒格说人们正在接受“知识更匮乏的股票经纪人”建议,并表示“这太卑鄙了”。巴菲特也在旁边插嘴说,那些经纪人其实很了解佣金。
Manger said that people were accepting the idea of “a less knowledgeable stockbroker” and said that “this is too cheap.” Buffett also said that the brokers were actually well aware of the commission.
看看伯克希尔怎么买西方石油的操作
Let's see how Birkhter buys the operation of Western oil.
巴菲特:买西方石油的时候,手头还有购买其他四个公司的想法,但最终没有落实。
Buffett: At the time of buying Western oil, there was also the idea of buying four other companies, but it was not implemented.
巴菲特:股市就像赌场 过去两年尤其如此
Buffett: The stock market is like a casino, especially in the last two years.
巴菲特在股东会上表示,过去两年股市动荡,难以捉摸,就像赌场一样,大家都在里面赌博。这种现象在过去两年尤其明显,也可能是过去两年股市太牛了。
Buffett said at the shareholders’ meeting that the stock market had been volatile and unpredictable over the past two years, and that, like casinos, everyone was gambling in it. This was particularly evident in the past two years, and perhaps the stock market was too strong in the past two years.
提问:写股东信后为何开始频频收购
芒格:找到了有比债券更有吸引力的东西。
Manger: Found something more attractive than bonds.
巴菲特:股东信上标注的日期是2月26日,但实际上要写得更早一些。但也要承认在2月25日收到了一张字条,原来在伯克希尔工作过的同事告诉我他已经做到Alleghany的总裁,请他看看Alleghany的年报。巴菲特随即表示会在3月7日前往纽约,并约他见面。事实上在这一张字条前,我们虽然关注Alleghany六十年了,但其实并没有收购的意思。
Buffett: The shareholder’s letter is dated 26 February, but in fact it has to be written earlier. It is also acknowledged that on 25 February, we received a note from colleagues who had worked in Birkhshire telling me that he had done as the president of Alleghany and asked him to see Alleghany’s annual report. Buffett then said that he would go to New York on 7 March and meet him.
巴菲特:感谢美联储 向鲍威尔脱帽致敬
Buffett: Thank you to the Fed for taking off your hat at Powell.
巴菲特在股东大会上盛赞了美联储主席鲍威尔的果断、迅速的举措,并表示应该向他“脱帽致敬”。
At the Shareholder Conference, Buffett praised Fed Chairman Powell for his decisive and swift initiative and stated that he should be “decapitated”.
巴菲特解读一季度大幅加仓股票
Buffett reads Sticked Stock >.......................................................................................................
巴菲特在股东会上表示,一季度公司总共买入了518亿美元的股票,同时卖出了103亿美元。其中二月底至三月中旬期间,一口气买了410亿美元的股票。虽然现金水平大幅下降,巴菲特依然表示公司将保留足够安全的现金,公司四月以来还未展开过股票回购。
Buffett said at the shareholders’ meeting that a total of $51.8 billion had been bought in a quarter, while $10.3 billion had been sold. Between the end of February and mid-March, he bought $41 billion.
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