来源：BABI财经
USDT价格一度低见1：0.89美元，这样的情形极为罕见！
这一次，我们可能正在见证USDT帝国的土崩瓦解。
This time, we may be witnessing the collapse of the USDT Empire.
Tether，这只最迄今为止最成功的挂钩美元的“稳定币”，也是加密数字资产交易圈的中流砥柱，最近价格创出史上最长连跌记录，价格一度低见1：0.89美元，这样的情形极为罕见！
Tether, this is the most successful dollar-linked “stabilized currency” to date, and is the middle pillar of the crypto-digital asset trading circle, with prices that have recently reached record record levels at a low price of 1: 0.89, which is extremely rare!
通常来说，这只号称100%足额法币抵押的“稳定币”对美元价格不会低于0.98，即便偶尔击穿这一价位也会由于套利者的涌入而迅速反弹回1：1附近。
As a rule, the price of this “stable currency” denominated 100 per cent full French-currency collateral is not less than 0.98 >, and will quickly bounce back near 1:1 /strong >, even occasionally as a result of the influx of arbitrators.
然而这一次的剧情已经出现了逆转，由下图可以看到，10月初以来，USDT在多个平台上对美元的成交价一路“向南”，今天（10月15日）在四大平台上折算价格从0.89~0.94美元不等，持有100万USDT价值最多缩水了11%：
However, this episode has been reversed, as can be seen from the following graph, that since the beginning of October, USDT's transaction value to the United States dollar has gone “southward”, and today (15 October) conversion prices on four platforms ranged from 0.89~0.94 , holding up to 1 million USDT values by 11 per cent:
这样的价格创下去年底以来最低水平，但当时连续下跌的日子最长不过4天，而如今，USDT已经史无前例的创下的8连跌的记录。此外，USDT的价格已连续六周没有出现过“溢价”，即一直徘徊在1美元下方：
This price has been at its lowest level since the end of the year, but at that time it fell continuously for no more than four days, and now the USDT has an unprecedented record of eight consecutive drops. In addition, the USDT price has not been a premium for six consecutive weeks, i.e., it has been hovering under a dollar:
Tether的总市值亦出现了下跌，CMC数据显示USDT市值上周还有28亿美元，本周一已跌至24亿美元，在USDT没有销毁的情况下，市值瞬间蒸发了14%：
The overall market value of Tether has also fallen, with CMC data showing that the market value of USDT was $2.8 billion last week, falling to $2.4 billion this Monday, and that in the absence of USDT destruction, the market value evaporated by 14 per cent immediately :
更值得警惕的是USDT成交量的下降，下图绿线是CMC统计的每日USDT成交量已经触及了20亿美元低点，如果说这可能是偶然的话，七日滚动成交量（红线）本月触及23亿美元低点，刷新四个月来最低水平：
What is even more alarming is the decline in the USDT turnover, with the following green line, the CMC-based daily USDT turnover, already reaching a low of $2 billion. If this could be a coincidence, the seven-day rolling volume (red line) reached a low of $2.3 billion this month, and the lowest level in four months was updated by :
种种迹象显示USDT 的市场信心正在崩溃，这可能与最近Tether公司接二连三的“异样”事件有关。
There are indications that USDT's market confidence is collapsing, which may be linked to the recent series of “disguised” events by Tether.
托管银行破产
Bank of Trust Insolvency >/strang >
首先是10月3日彭博社报道称，USDT的托管银行Noble Bank目前已失去包括USDT发行方Tether以及加密货币交易所Bitfinex等多个客户，且正在寻找新的买家。此前，该银行在1月份与Bitfinex达成了一项原则上的债务重组协议。
First, on 3 October, Bloomberg reported that USDT’s hosting bank, Noble Bank, had now lost multiple clients, including the USDT issuer, Tether, and the encrypted currency exchange, Bitfinex, and was looking for new buyers. Prior to that, the bank had reached a debt restructuring agreement in principle with Bitfinex in January.
Bitfinex丧失偿还能力遭质疑10月7日名为Proof of Research的媒体发文《警告：Bitfinex丧失偿还能力 取回你的资产》质疑Bitfinex现已丧失偿还能力，并警告用户取回资产，这篇文章旋即引在全球投资人中再次点燃了对USDT的担忧情绪。
A media release entitled Proof of Research on 7 October, Warning: Bitfinex became insolvent to recover your assets, questioned Bitfinex's current inability to repay
文中列举了4个主要证据：
Four key pieces of evidence are listed:
1．实际访问交易所存在连接问题；
1. Connectivity problems in physical access to exchanges;
2．交易所实际存取存在严重问题；
2. Serious problems of physical access to the exchange;
3．资金自动更新转移至某些账户，导致客户无法阻止自己的密码资产无限循环在平台上被借出；
3. Automatically updating funds to certain accounts, resulting in customers being unable to prevent their password assets from being lent on the platform in unlimited loops;
4．交易所客服接到这些投诉，并未给予相应的回答，也无法给出具体的时间表，甚至没有承认他们意识到了问题本身。
4. The exchange service received these complaints at without giving a corresponding answer or giving a specific timetable or even acknowledging that they were aware of the problem itself.
文章还给出了大量能够佐证这些问题的用户提供的资料。需要注意的是，Tether与Bitfinex共享一个管理团队，交易所会不会“监守自盗”？叠加Tether从未发布过权威的三方审计来证明其代币USDT有美元全额支撑，这两个问题长期被市场诟病。
The article also gives a great deal of information from users who can support these problems. It is important to note that Tether shares a management team with Bitfinex, and that the exchange will not be “steward of self-inflicted theft”? Plus Tether has never issued an authoritative tripartite audit to prove that its token USDT is fully supported by the United States dollar, and that the two issues of
Bitfinex暂停美元存提
没过几天，就在美国时间上周四（10月11日），Bitfinex宣布暂停美元存提业务，结合之前Noble Bank申请破产的传闻，这不禁让人浮想联翩。
Just a few days later, just last Thursday (11 October), United States time, Bitfinex announced a suspension of the dollar deposit, which, in the light of earlier rumours that Noble Bank had applied for bankruptcy, gave rise to speculation.
尽管市场传闻本次暂停美元出入金是因为Bitfinex 正将部分银行业务转移至汇丰银行（HSBC），但目前为止两家机构都还没有正式对此事发表声明。
Although there are rumours in the market that Bitfinex is transferring part of its banking operations to HSBC, , neither agency has made a formal statement on the matter so far.
trustnodes走访发现，一些Bitfinex的用户反映，取款问题不是声明之后才出现的，一些人声称他们已经等了好几个星期了，更有顾客说已经等待了六个月之久。
The Trustnodes visit found that some users of Bitfinex had indicated that the withdrawal issue had not arisen after a statement, some claiming that they had waited for several weeks, and even more that the customers had waited for six months.
与汇丰合作疑云
and HSBC
作为元老级加密货币交易所，Bitfinex 经历了不少困难的挑战，尤其是在日本、韩国和美国等主要加密货币市场受监管之前。
Bitfinex, an older crypto-currency exchange, has experienced a number of difficult challenges, especially before major crypto-currency markets, such as Japan, Korea and the United States, have been regulated.
2017 年4 月，Bitfinex 就美国银行巨头富国银行（Wells Fargo） 冻结其帐户存款服务，并扰乱业务运营一事提起诉讼。Bitfinex 当时在诉状书中写道，富国银行明令禁止四家台湾银行与Bitfinex 之间进行诸如境外电汇等业务往来。根据诉讼文件，这四个银行分别为为凯基银行、第一银行、华泰商业银行及台新银行。
In April 2017, Bitfinex filed a lawsuit against the United States Bank’s Big Rich Bank, Wells Fargo, for freezing its account deposit services and disrupting its operations. Bitfinex wrote in a petition that the Bank of Rich Nations had explicitly prohibited transactions such as offshore wire transfers between four Taiwan banks and Bitfinex.
汇丰银行作为首屈一指的国际大行，对于KYC和反洗钱（AML）有着的严格要求，Bitfinex如果不能满足严格监管，势必无法取得汇丰银行的服务。
As the leading international bank, HSBC has strict requirements for KYC and anti-money laundering (AML),
尽管有人认为与汇丰的合作可能是“烟雾弹”，不过话说回来，假如Bitfinex 和汇丰银行之间能够达成长期合作写一，将为其运营带来一定程度的稳定性，而这是Bitfinex 在过去4 年来无法实现的，USDT如今的折价也有可能被抹平。
While some argue that cooperation with HSBC may be a “smoke bomb”, again, long-term cooperation between Bitfinex and HSBC would bring a degree of stability to its operations, which Bitfinex has not been able to achieve in the last four years, and the discounts of the USDT today could be wiped out.
所以，简单的认为USDT这次一定会崩盘可能不一定会应验。
So, simple thinking that USDT is going to crash this time may not be the case.
由于美国商品期货委员会（CFTC）在2016罚款后的银行业对数字货币行业的封锁，主流交易所很难获得正规大银行账户，因此，交易所们必须通过第三方“财务处理者”秘密地进行资金清算，这也是Bitfinex声称无法给出详细审计的原因。
Because of the banking blockade imposed by the United States Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC) on the digital currency sector after the 2016 fines, it is difficult for mainstream exchanges to obtain formal large bank accounts, and therefore the `strong' exchanges must settle their funds confidentially through third-party “financial processors”
不过Bitfinex为了证明自己的偿付能力，最近展示了自己的冷钱包，大约有14万个 BTC，价值10亿美元，此外还有4亿美元的ETH和2亿美元的EOS钱包。
However, in order to prove its solvency, Bitfinex has recently shown its own cold wallet of about 140,000 BTCs worth $1 billion, in addition to $400 million in ETH and $200 million in EOS.
但这个数字似乎又不能证明什么，因为我们谁也不知道Bitfinex欠用户多少个BTC，例如，MT Gox在破产时拥有20万个比特币，但当时仍然破产，因为他们欠了用户100万个比特币。
But this number does not seem to prove anything, because none of us know how many BTCs Bitfinex owes to users,
“Bitfinex的主张可能是真实的，也许一切都很好，但在这种情况下，我们别无选择，只能说尽可能远离Bitfinex和USDT是明智之举。”一位投资人在接受采访时表示。
“The idea of
Tether的本质：私人债券
Tether虽然号称“基于区块链技术发行的一种去中心化的数字货币。据Tether公司最初承诺——其将严格遵守 1：1 的准备金保证”，但究其本质，只是一种私人债券。
Although it is called “a decentralized digital currency based on block chain technology. According to Tether's initial commitment — it will strictly adhere to the 1:1 reserve guarantee — it is essentially a private bond.
“Tether的本质是私人公司的债权，”经济研究机构智堡（Wisburg）创始人Mikko表示，用户原本持有美元现金或银行存款，对应的分别时银行负债和主权货币当局负债，而Tether的持有者则暴露在公司的信用风险之下，用户买入Tether的过程，实际上就是把自己的资产降级了。
“The essence of Tether is the claim of a private company.” Mikko, founder of Wisburg, an economic research institution, stated that the user was in possession of cash or bank deposits in United States dollars, corresponding to bank liabilities and sovereign monetary authority liabilities, while the holder of Tether was exposed to the company's credit risk, and that the `strong' user buying into Teth actually downgraded his assets.
极端情况：如果USDT崩盘会怎样？
Extreme: What happens if the USDT crashes?
主流的悲观观点认为，USDT若出了问题，所有基于USDT报价的交易币种都有可能被重创，不止Bitfinex会破产，囤积了USDT的其它交易所也将受到牵连，大量的投资者甚至将血本无归，这将堪称“核爆”级别的事故！
The prevailing pessimistic view is that any currency of dealing based on the USDT offer could be seriously damaged if there was a problem, not only Bitfinex would be bankrupt, other exchanges that hoarded USDT would be implicated, and a large number of investors would even lose their blood. would be a nuclear explosion!
但也有人认为，没了USDT市场照样运转，因为如今的币圈各路稳定币种类繁多，不管是基于算法和超额抵押的DAI，还是拿到监管牌照的PAXOS、GUSD，一旦USDT退场，这些稳定币会很快补上缺口，并不值得过于担心。
But it has also been argued that the USDT market is running without the USDT, because the currency circle today has a wide variety of stable currencies, whether based on algorithms and over-collateralized DAIs, or with regulatory licence plates PAXOS, GUSD, , which quickly closes the gap and is not too worrying.
币安创始人赵长鹏上周就在推特回复网友担忧称，用户如果担忧USDT，可以将之换成受监管的稳定币PAX。
The founder of the currency, Zhao Chang Peng, responded last week on Twitter to the blogger’s concern that if users were worried about USDT, they could replace it with a regulated stable currency, PAX.
MakerDAO经济研究员潘超今日评论认为，“USDT 这波能否扛得住要看中国市场的承兑能力了，因为中国市场占了很大的流动性，但即便USDT不彻底崩盘，也很难回到 par（1：1） 了。”
According to MakerDAO economic researcher Pan, “the ability of the Chinese market to hold the wave depends on whether the Chinese market holds up, 另外一种颇为有趣的观点是USDT的崩盘可能成为牛市的开端，因为届时大家将倾向于将手中闲置的USDT全部买入BTC等主流数字货币资产，在存量资金博弈的当下，相当于提高资金的使用率。 Another interesting idea is that the crash of 但总体来说，USDT拥有目前最大的稳定币市值，高达30亿美元，其用户基数庞大导致市场（项目方、庄家为主）不会允许USDT归零，当其出现危机时，其中的博弈关系可谓非常微妙了。 In general, however, the USDT, with its current largest stable currency market value of $3 billion, whose user base is so large that the market (project owner, owner) will not allow the USDT to come to zero, is a delicate game relationship when it comes to crisis. 责任编辑：唐婧
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