#比特币# #数字货币# #区块链# $比特币美元(BTCUSD)$ $比特币ETF-美元(BTCC.U)$ @今日话题
前言 Foreword to 之前一篇长文介绍了比特币的S2F估值模型，这篇文章的作者PlanB在2020年的4月28日发表了一篇新的文章，提出了一种叫S2FX的估值模型。 The previous article 一分钟版本 Minute version 这个S2FX的模型的全称是S2F cross asset模型，这个模型和S2F模型的本质区别是把黄金和白银两种贵金属作为数据点加入到模型中进行拟合。并用这个拟合后的函数关系来预测比特币的价格，根据这个模型预测，都2024年，比特币的SF值会达到56，比特币的市值将达到5.5万亿美金，换算成每个比特币的价格是28.8万美金。 This S2FX model, fully known as the S2F crossasset model, is essentially distinguished from the S2F model by adding two precious metals, gold and silver, into the model as data points. Using this intended function to predict the price of bitcoin, the model predicts that in 2024, the value of bitcoin SF will reach 56, and the market value of bitcoin will reach $5.5 trillion, or $288,000 per bitcoin. 五分钟版本 5-minute version 这个估值模型将比特币和黄金，白银一起进行拟合的核心假设是作者认为比特币和美元一样，存在状态迁移，即每一次迁移后，估值体系会随之发生剧变。 The core assumption of the valuation model that Bitcoin and gold, silver, are to be combined is that the authors believe that Bitcoin, like the United States dollar, moves in a state of existence, i.e., that each move will result in a dramatic change in the valuation system. 下图中作者对比特币的历史价格进行了聚类，得出了比特币历史上的四个状态： The historical price of the author's bitcoin is clustered in the following graph, resulting in four situations in the history of bitcoin: 1）比特币作为概念验证 (S2F比值为1.3，总市值为100万美金) 1) Bitcoin as concept validation & nbsp; (S2F margin of 1.3 and total market value of $1 million) 2）比特币作为支付工具 (S2F比值为3.3，总市值为5,800万美金) 2) Bitcoin as a payment tool & nbsp; (S2F ratio of 3.3 and total market value of $58 million) 3）比特币作为电子黄金 (S2F比值为10.2，总市值为56亿美金) 3) Bitcoin as electronic gold & nbsp; (S2F margin of 10.2 and total market value of $5.6 billion) 4）比特币作为金融资产 (S2F比值为25.1，总市值 1,140亿美金) 4) Bitcoin as a financial asset & nbsp; (S2F margin of 25.1, total market value & nbsp; $114 billion) 然后作者将黄金和白银的数据点加入到比特币的样本中，进行模型拟合。黄金和白银作为拟合曲线右上角的数据点，实际上为比特币的估值提供了一个理论上界。 The author then added the gold and silver data points to the bitcoin samples and modeled them. Gold and silver, as data points at the upper right corner of the curve, actually provide a theoretical boundary for the bitcoin valuation. 参考资料 网页链接 @100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12 互联网民工，CFA/特许金融分析师持证人，在钻研如何应用深度学习模型持续稳定地实现负向收益的道路上渐行渐远。） (Personal profile: ex-finance/now , CFA/licensed financial analyst witness, moving away from the path of developing ways of applying deep learning models to achieve negative returns on a sustainable basis.)
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