上海升级后的以太坊：抛售潮与质押赛道展望

上海升级暂定于 4 月 13 日进行，将首次允许验证者从信标链撤出以及提款。相关预期叠加，市场又一次将注意力聚焦于以太坊流动性。上海升级完成后，是否会有抛售潮，是否会产生大幅币价波动，未来以太坊质押赛道的前景如何，质押收益走势如何，本文结合以太坊币价、通缩率、质押率走势、供应率走势等数据，进行分析讨论，结论如下：

The Shanghai upgrade is tentatively scheduled to take place on April 13, which will allow for the first time the certificationer to withdraw from the beacon chain and withdraw the money. Related expectations overlap, the market again focuses its attention on Etheria liquidity. After the Shanghai upgrade has been completed, whether there will be a sell-out wave, whether there will be significant currency fluctuations, what will be the outlook for the future Ether pledge track, and how the pledge proceeds are moving. The following is an analytical discussion in the context of data such as the price, deflation, pledge rate, supply rate, etc.:

• 上海升级完成后短期内可能会有一定的抛压（部分提款），这部分抛压对市场有立竿见影的效果；
• 以太坊质押者中只有 40% （非流动性质押者）有抛售意愿，这 40% 的以太坊质押者的成本相对较低，会带来一定的抛压，不过这个过程是缓慢的，极端情况下需要 125 天才能提出所有质押的以太坊；
• 以太坊的质押率在未来几年能够继续保持增长，达到一个临界值后质押率增长速度会减缓；
• 在不考虑嵌套与杠杆的情况下，以太坊质押收益率会随着以太坊质押率的上升而降低，但随着区块链行业的不断发展以及流动性质押赛道衍生出更多玩法，以太坊质押收益率会更高，相应的以太坊质押率也会比预期更高。

目前有约 60% 的以太坊被质押在提供了抵押流动性衍生品的服务商，仅约 40% 的以太坊属于独立验证者和质押池，这二者在此次上海升级中所受到的影响是不同的。

At present, about 60 per cent of Ethers are being held hostage to service providers providing mortgage liquid derivatives, and only about 40 per cent of Ethers are independent certifying officers and pledge pools, both of which were affected differently in this Shanghai upgrade.

提款分为部分提款和完全提款。

Drawdowns are divided into partial and full withdrawals.

部分提款：指超过 32 个以太坊的余额（赚取的奖励）将被直接提取到以太坊地址，可以立即使用，验证器将继续作为信标链的一部分并按预期进行验证；

(b) Partial withdrawal: means that the balance (rewards earned) of more than 32 Etherias will be extracted directly to the Etherm address and will be ready for immediate use, and the authenticator will continue to be part of the beacon chain and will be validated as expected;

完全提款：指验证者完全退出，不再是信标链的一部分，验证者的全部余额（32 个以太坊和其他任何奖励）随后被解锁，并允许在退出机制完成后使用。

Full withdrawal: means that the certifying officer withdraws completely and is no longer part of the beacon chain, and that the full balance of the certifying officer (32 Etheria and any other incentives) is subsequently unlocked and allowed to be used upon completion of the exit mechanism.

另外需要指出的是，信标链验证器包含一个称为取款凭据的字段，此凭证的前两个字节称为取款前缀，此值当前是 0x00 或 0x01，该值是在通过存款工具进行存款时设置的；具有 0x00 取款凭证的验证者将无法立即取款，这些验证者将需要迁移到 0x01 才能进行部分提款和全部提款。

It should also be noted that the beacon chain certifier contains a field known as the evidence for the withdrawal, the first two bytes of which are called the prefix for the withdrawal, which is currently 0x00 or 0x01, which is set when deposits are made through deposit instruments; certifiers with 0x00 certificates will not be able to draw immediately; these certifiers will need to move to 0x01 for partial and full withdrawals.

部分提款的速率为每个区块可以有 16 个提款请求，而目前 12 秒 1 个区块，每分钟 5 个区块，每小时 300 个区块，每天约为 7.2k 个区块；因此假设每个验证者都更新到了 0x11 那么预计每天约有 115k 验证者的部分提款。据 beaconcha.in 数据，至今有 558062 的验证者，因此大约需要 4～5 天的时间就能够实现部分提款的退出，每个验证者的余额平均为 34 个以太坊，因此预估质押者们赚取了大约 「（34-32）✖558062=1116124 个以太坊的质押奖励（计为 110 万个）。按照当前的以太坊价格（计 \(1800)，即在 4～5 天内会有价值 \)1.98b 左右的以太坊被释放，如下图所示，根据 CoinGecko 数据，目前以太坊每日现货总交易量为 $10.4b，因此部分提款的总价值约为以太坊每日现货交易总量的约 19%，平均到 5 天释放，每日释放量为每日现货交易量的 3%～4%。

According to Beaconcha.in, there are currently 558062 certifying officers, so that it will take approximately four to five days to obtain a partial withdrawal, with an average balance of 34 on taupulemes per day and 300 on average of 34 on taupulegs per hour; thus, it is assumed that each certifier has updated the 0x11 so that approximately 115k certifiers per day are expected to make a partial withdrawal. Based on data from beaconcha.in, there are currently 558062 certifying officers, so that it will take about four to five days to achieve a partial withdrawal, so that each certifier will have an average balance of 34 on taupules per hour, and thus anticipates that the depositors will earn approximately 34 (34-32) & #x2716 per day; 558062 = 1116124 on taupules per day (based on 1.1 million). Based on the current average daily traffic value of 4 to 5 per cent of the current cont.

这一部分是可预计的抛售压力，因为与完全提款可以在上海升级前通过流动性质押衍生品换回以太坊不同，质押奖励部分（部分提款）只有在上海升级后才能够提取，因此这一部分很有可能会有一定的抛压，但是部分提款对币价的影响是相对短期而言的，并不会长期且持续地影响以太坊价格；其次，在当前的以太坊价格下，考虑到 POS 参与者的其他链上行为（他们通常继续复利），相当一部分的以太坊长期质押者、持有者并不会在这时候出售。

This part is a predictable sell-out pressure, since, unlike full withdrawals, which can be exchanged for Etheria by mobile derivatives prior to upgrade in Shanghai, the pledge incentive portion (part of which is withdrawn) can only be extracted after upgrade in Shanghai and is therefore likely to have a certain degree of pressure overhang, but the effect of some withdrawals on currency prices is relatively short-term and will not be sustained over a long period of time; and, secondly, at the current price in Taipan, given other chain behaviour by POS participants (who usually continue to recover profits), a significant proportion of the long-term depositors and holders of the Ethermy deposit will not be sold at this time.

更进一步地说，实际上并非所有验证者都拥有 0x01 凭证。如下图所示，据 Data Always 数据显示，截至 2023-01-29，大约还有 20% 的新验证者没有设置 0x01 凭证。

Further, not all certifying officers actually own 0x01 certificates. As shown in the figure below, data from Data Always shows that as of 2023-01-29, about 20% of new certifying officers do not have 0x01 certificates in place.

另外，据 Date Always 研究中的动画表明，0x00 的转化峰值大约会在上海升级完成后的第二天早些时候达到并持续大约两天时间，并不是在上海升级完成时立刻达到；因此在最极端的情况下，第一天应该会看到大约 110k 个以太坊的部分提款（不包括 Lido 0x01 验证者）。

In addition, animated from the Date Always study, the conversion peak of 0x00 would have reached and lasted approximately two days earlier in the day after the Shanghai upgrade had been completed, not immediately upon completion of the Shanghai upgrade; therefore, in the most extreme case, the first day should have seen a partial withdrawal from approximately 110k Etheria (excluding Lido 0x01 Certifiers).

完全提款和部分提款具备同样的优先级，与部分提款在同一个提款队列中，在部分提款进行时，如果验证者被标记为「exited」，那么将执行余额➕奖励的全部退款。不过与部分提款不同的是，完全提款的速率受到更多的限制，如下两图所示，当前完全提款流失限制为 8 ，每日最多提款 57.6k 个以太坊，目前总共已质押约 18M 个以太坊，其中 LSD 和 CEX 占了 60%，由于这部分大多存在二级市场退出渠道，因此可以假定，有意愿在上海升级后退出的以太坊只有另外 40% 的质押参与， 即 7.2M 个，因此假设在超极端情况下上海上级之后不再有用户存款而且每日提款量达到最大值，那么所有质押的以太坊都完全退出需要 125 天。

Full withdrawals and partial withdrawals have the same level of priority, and when partial withdrawals are carried out in the same withdrawal queue, if the certifying officer is marked as "exited ", the executing balance x2795; the full refund of the incentive will be paid. However, unlike partial withdrawals, the rate of full withdrawals is more limited. As shown in the following two figures, the current total withdrawal loss is limited to 8, the maximum withdrawals per day, and 57.6 k by Tails, a total of about 18 M by Tais are now pledged, of which LSD and CEX account for 60 per cent, and since most of these have secondary market exit channels, it can be assumed that only an additional 40 per cent of the porters, 7.2M, who are willing to withdraw after an upgrade to the Shanghai are involved, assuming that there are no more user deposits after going to the sea level in ultra-extremous circumstances and that the daily withdrawals reach maximum value, all pledges require complete withdrawal for 125 days.

正如上文中提到的，占供应量 60% 的两个类别是 LSD 和 CEX，它们大多都发行了抵押流动性衍生品，例如 stETH、cbETH、rETH、bETH 等。

As mentioned above, the two categories that account for 60 per cent of supply are LSD and CEX, most of which issue mortgage liquid derivatives such as stETH, cbETH, rETH, bETH, etc.

以 stETH 为例，目前 stETH 对 ETH 的汇率为 0.9996，价差极小，因此如果想售出的质押者可以直接在市场中将流动性衍生品兑换为以太坊售出，完全无需等到上海升级后再售出；也正因如此，目前所质押的以太坊成本其实是很分散的，而且是一直在变化的，有很多人持有 stETH 并不是通过质押 ETH 获得的，而是在二级市场中交易获得的。对于这 60% 的质押者来说，在不考虑市场抛压造成的超卖行为，上海升级并不会对其产生过大影响。

In the case of stETH, the current stETH exchange rate for ETH is 0.9996, with very low price differentials, so that if the grantor who wants to sell it can exchange liquid derivatives for sale in the market directly, it does not have to wait until Shanghai upgrades; and that is why the current pledge of stETH costs is dispersed and constantly changing, with many holding stETHs not obtained by pledge ETH, but traded in the secondary market. For 60% of the pledgeers, Shanghai upgrades do not have a disproportionate impact on the market without taking into account the excess sales caused by market pressure.

市场中也有观点认为，体量大的质押者会由于担心衍生品的流动性不足，出售可能发生折价，因此其会等待上海升级完退出质押后再卖出。这种顾虑不无道理，但是我们回顾以太坊历史价格，如下图所示，可以看出在 2021 年 3 月和 2022 年 6 月期间出现过大幅折价，在 2021 年 3 月时，是因为当时正处在大盘高点，这部分卖出的多为 2020 年底质押的用户，在此套现离场；2022 年 6 月的这次折价，则是因为当时 3AC 和 FTX 事件，使得部分机构大量出售 stETH 导致价格脱锚，由此可以看出，对于大资金体量的投资者，在流动性不足的情况下依然会有抛售行为，这取决于市场情况，而非对于流动性的顾虑，因此将以太坊未来下跌的可能性完全归因于对于流动性紧缩的预期是不正确的。

There is also a view in the market that high-volume pledgeers would wait for Shanghai to upgrade and exit the pledge after selling because of concerns about the liquidity of derivatives and the possibility of discounting it. This concern is justified, but we recall the historical price of the Taiku, as shown in the figure below, which led to a substantial price break in March 2021 and June 2022, and that in March 2021, when large-scale investors were in a situation of insufficient liquidity, depending on market conditions, rather than on concerns about liquidity, the risk of a fall in the future would be entirely attributable to the expectation of increased liquidity.

如上图所示，目前存款成本处于「水下状态」的质押者比处于「盈利状态」的多，因此在这方面也有着两种看法：其中一种认为这些亏损的会提出存款以止损，另一种认为亏损的会由于「厌恶损失」的情绪而更有可能持有。

As shown in the figure above, there are now more pledgeers with “underwater” savings costs than “profits”, and there are two views in this regard: one that claims that these losses will put an end to the loss and the other that the loss will be more likely to be held because of “loss-averse” sentiment.

而在以太坊质押上，对于大部分以太坊质押者（60%）来说，并不存在成本问题，因为正如上文所说，在上海升级前，一样可以通过二级市场去将 stETH 兑换为 ETH 并售出，因此对于这 60% 的质押者来说，这并没有什么影响。

On the Etheria pledge, there is no cost problem for the majority (60 per cent) of the etherms, because, as noted above, the stETH can be converted into ETH and sold through the secondary market before upgrading in Shanghai, so this has little impact on the 60 per cent of the pledgeers.

但是对于另外 40%，它们大多是一些以太坊 POS 质押早期参与者，而这一部分人的成本价是相对较低的；以太坊信标链主网存款合约地址最早在 2020 年 11 月推出，当时 ETH 价格仅约 \(400～\)500，直到 2021 年的三月底以太坊代币才达到今天的价格，因此或许可以猜测这部分质押者占了上图中「In the Money」的一大部分，而这样的成本价到今天的 $1800 也有 3~4 倍的涨幅，因此这一部分人可能会带来一定的抛压。并且由于市场情绪原因，这一部分人的抛压可能会使市场产生 FUD 情绪，导致 60% 的质押者也恐慌抛售，不过上文也有说到，以太坊质押的退出是有限制速率的，因此这些质押者的抛售反应在市场上也是相对缓慢的。

For the other 40%, however, they were mostly early participants in the EPS pledge, and the cost for this group was relatively low; the ETH deposit contract was first launched in November 2020, when the ETH price was only about \\ (400)500, until at the end of March 2021, when it was achieved in the TM currency, so it may be assumed that this portion of the pledge account for a significant portion of the "In The Money" in the above map, and that the cost today is also three to four times higher than the $1,800, so that this segment of the contract may cause a certain depression. And, for market sentiment, this segment of the population may cause FUD sentiment in the market, causing 60% of the collateral to be sold, although it is also stated that the withdrawal from the TP is at a limiting rate, so that the sales response of these grantors is also relatively slow in the market.

上文写了上海升级可能对以太坊币价造成的影响，此外，上海升级给以太坊带来的影响还会体现在以太坊的质押率和质押收益率上。

The impact that the Shanghai upgrade may have on the price of the Taiyan currency is described above, and in addition, the impact of the Shanghai upgrade on it will also be reflected in its pledge rate and the return on pledge rate.

经过分析，我们认为，上海升级后以太坊的质押率会比现在高，但是很难与其他公链一样达到如此高的质押率（60%～80%）；此外，随着质押率的上升，在不计算套娃、LSDFI 等玩法的情况下，质押收益率会下降。

Based on an analysis,

以下三个因素可能会利好以太坊质押率增长。

The following three factors are likely to facilitate the growth of the taupulega pledge rate.

i）如下图所示，以太坊的质押率目前仅有 15.52%，而其他公链却有着最高达到 73% 的质押率，因此可以判断以太坊目前的质押率肯定是偏低的，有着巨大的增长空间。

(i) As can be seen from the figure below, the current pledge rate in the district is only 15.52 per cent, while the rest of the public chain has a maximum pledge rate of 73 per cent, so it can be concluded that the current pledge rate in the district is certainly low and has considerable scope for growth.

ii）上海升级完成之前，质押在信标链的以太坊无法流动，大量资金被锁定在信标链上，导致资金利用不灵活，这一点可能会降低用户的质押欲望；而随着上海升级的完成，这个流动性风险问题也会迎刃而解，以太坊质押从存款到提款实现闭环，抵押流动性衍生品代币对以太坊代币价格的汇率也会回归 1：1，这或许能够吸引大量机构和资本的质押，但其实这个点在当前 LSD 盛行的质押环境下并不具备太大的参考价值。

ii) Prior to the completion of the upgrade in Shanghai, the pledge of a beacon chain in which the Etheria is unable to move, and the large amount of funds locked in the beacon chain, leading to inflexibility in the use of funds, may reduce the user's desire to pledge; and, as the upgrade is completed in Shanghai, this liquidity risk problem will also be resolved, and the deposit of a deposit from deposit to withdrawal will be closed, and the exchange rate of the mortgage liquid derivatives against the price of the Etherkos will return to 1:1, which may attract a large number of institutional and capital pledges, but this point does not have much reference value in the current environment of the LSD-rife pledge environment.

iii）以太坊目前已经处于通缩状态，当前通货膨胀率是 -0.62%，根据供求关系这表明了以太坊的价值正随着时间在不断的提升，而其他公链如此高的质押率正是因为它们的质押收益率更高，而这背后的结果正是代币的不断增发与贬值，因此就这一点来看，对于长期质押者来说，将资金质押在以太坊上或许是一个更具吸引力的选择；而且目前还处于熊市，市场较不活跃，以太坊就已经处于通缩状态，在之后的牛市中每日消耗的 gas 更多，以太坊的通缩量也会更加可观。

iii) The current inflation rate of -062 per cent, according to supply and demand, indicates that the value of the neighbourhood is increasing over time, while other public chains have such a high pledge rate because of their higher rate of return on pledges, which is the result of the increasing and devaluation of the tokens, so that it may be a more attractive option for long-term pledgeers; and that it is still in the bear market, where the market is less active, where it is already deflationary, where it consumes more gas per day in the later cattle, and where it is much more pronounced.

然而，以太坊质押率也不会无限增长，我们认为：

However, there will be no limitless increase in the rate of ephemeral pledge, and we believe that:

i）以太坊无法提供像其他公链那样高的质押收益率，因此或许会有更多用户更加倾向于将自己的资产质押在更高收益率的公链上。

i) There may be more users who are more likely to pledge their assets on a public chain with higher rates of return than the other public chains are unable to provide.

ii）而除了与其他公链相比在质押收益率上不占优势之外，以太坊本身的质押收益率还会随着质押率的上涨而降低（不论套娃、LSDFI 等玩法的情况下）。如下两图所示，以太坊的质押率和质押收益率是动态平衡的，根据这个模型，在以太坊的质押量达到 44.3M ETH 的时候，年化收益率仅仅只有 2.5%，44.3M 与现在 18.2M 的质押量相比涨幅大约 2.5 倍；而事实就是这样的质押收益率并不足以吸引大部分的用户，因此本文预测以太坊的质押率在当前质押率的基础上翻一倍左右之后会减缓增长速度。

ii) In addition to the fact that the pledge rate does not prevail in relation to other public chains, the pledge rate for the Taiku itself will decrease as the pledge rate rises (regardless of whether the child, the LSDFI, etc.). The following two figures show that the pledge rate and the pledge rate are dynamicly balanced and, according to this model, the annualized rate of return is only 2.5 per cent at the time that the pledge in Taiya reaches 44.3 M ETH, and 44.3 M is about 2.5 times higher than the current pledge rate of 18.2 M; the fact is that the pledge rate is not enough to attract most users, so this paper predicts that the rate will slow growth when it doubles on the basis of the current pledge rate.

如上图所示，可以看出自 2022 年 9 月开始，以太坊的供应量增长趋于平缓甚至有下降趋势，自以太坊开放质押以来，以太坊质押量不断上升，并且在目前看来以太坊质押量的上升趋势并没有减缓。

As shown in the figure above, it can be seen that since September 2022, the growth in the supply of the taupulega has stabilized or even declined, that since the opening of the taupulega, there has been an increase in taupulega pledges, and that the current upward trend in taupulega pledges does not seem to have slowed.

基于此，我们认为：

Based on this, we believe that:

在市场交易不够活跃的熊市中，以太坊供应量增长逐渐平缓并有下降趋势，可以预计到，牛市的到来，交易量的大幅上涨，消耗 gas 费的提高，会进一步加快以太坊的通缩。而以太坊质押率会在供应量通缩的背景下走高，然而随着以太坊的质押率不断提高，单个节点的质押收益率随之降低，在以太坊质押率达到一定值时会进入两者间的动态平衡状态。

In a bear city where market transactions are not as dynamic as ever, there is a steady and declining trend towards a flat growth in the supply of the tavern, and it can be expected that the arrival of the cow market, a substantial increase in the volume of the trade, and an increase in the cost of consumption gas will further accelerate the deflation of the taupulega. The taupuleg rate will rise against the background of a shrinking supply, but with the increasing rate of taupuleg, the return on the pledge of the individual node will decline and enter a dynamic balance between the two when the taupulega rate reaches a certain value.

但我们相信，随着区块链行业的不断发展，流动性质押作为 DeFi 乐高组件，在其上构建、衍生出更多玩法，相应的以太坊质押率也会比预期更高。根据模型测算，以太坊质押量达到 44.3M 时，质押收益率会降为 2.5%；但是，LSD 会带来很多新的玩法包括循环贷、套娃等，因此，随着 LSD 赛道和区块链行业的发展，更具有吸引力的综合质押收益率将会推动以太坊质押赛道走向更高的动态平衡。

But we believe that, as the block chain industry continues to evolve, the mobile nature of the pledge as a DeFi Lego component builds on it and generates more games, with a corresponding higher than expected rate of deposit in the taupulega. Models suggest that the return on pledge will be reduced to 2.5% when the taupulega is reached by 44.3M; however, the LSD will bring many new ways of playing, including revolving loans, shampoo, etc., so that, as the LSD track and block chain industry develop, the more attractive combined rate of return will drive a more dynamic balance in the taupulega track.

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