從單價9000美元到超過6.4萬美元，再到一度跌破3萬美元，加密貨幣比特幣在一年裡走出“過山車”行情。一邊“造富”，一邊“割韭菜”，劇烈波動表象下，比特幣真實價值幾何？應如何看待加密貨幣？
From US$ 9,000 to more than US$ 64,000, to a time when it fell by US$ 30,000, the encoded currency bits out of the "crotch" business in a year. On the one hand, "rich" and "clicted vegetables" on the other, and on the other hand, what is the real value of the bitcoin?
不少金融業人士表示，很難評估比特幣到底有沒有實際價值，投資加密貨幣面臨較大風險，投資者應謹慎選擇。
According to a number of financial sources, it is difficult to assess the real value of Bitcoins, the risks of investing in encryption are greater, and investors should be careful to choose.
加密貨幣價值何在
What's the value of the encrypted currency?
以比特幣、以太幣和瑞波幣為代表的加密貨幣並沒有主權信用背書，是通過算法生成的。因此，加密貨幣能不能稱為貨幣，在業內存在較大爭議。
The encrypt currency, represented by bitcoins, titans, and rippoons, is generated by algorithms without a principal credit endorsement. Therefore, there is much more controversy in the industry as to whether the encrypt currency can be called a currency.
紐約大學經濟學家努裡爾·魯比尼表示，加密貨幣不滿足貨幣的基本標准，不算新形式的貨幣。加密貨幣甚至不能算是資產，沒法計算價值。
Nurier Rubini, an economist at the University of New York, says that encryption currency does not meet the basic criteria for currency and does not count as a new form of currency. Encryption currency is not even an asset, nor can it be valued.
歐洲央行副行長德金多斯同樣認為，很難看出加密貨幣的潛在價值，市場參與者應該為進一步價格波動做好准備。
The Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Dekindos, agreed that it was difficult to see the potential value of encrypted currency and that market participants should be prepared for further price movements.
具體到比特幣，英國杜倫大學金融學首席教授、中國發展研究院執行院長郭杰表示，從供需關系看，一段時間以來比特幣上漲源於總量稀缺、需求上漲。不過，郭杰認為，比特幣價值體系還沒有建立起來，因此也沒有完全按供需關系波動，傳統分析框架隻適用於可被投資者明確價值的商品。
Specifically, to Bitcoin, Guo Jie, the chief professor of finance at the University of Duren and CEO of the China Institute of Development Studies in England, said that for some time, the increase in bitcoins was due to a combination of scarcity and demand. However, Guo Jie argued that the Bitcoin value system had not yet been established, and therefore did not follow a full supply-demand dynamic, and that the traditional framework for analysis was only a commodity that could be used by investors with a clear value.
野村綜合研究所研究員木內登英說，比特幣近期波動主要與美國新能源汽車公司特斯拉是否接受比特幣購車的態度變化有關。木內登英認為，正是由於使用價值不明確，比特幣波動性才如此之高。
Researcher Munedening, Nomura Institute Researcher, said that the recent wave of bitcoins was mainly related to whether Tesla, a new energy company in the United States, accepted changes in the attitude of bitcoins. According to Muneden, it was because of uncertainty about the value of the use that bitcoins were so volatile.
是否新一輪金融騙局
金融史上，“郁金香泡沫”“南海泡沫”等騙局層出不窮。如今，隻在小眾范圍得到認可的加密貨幣卻炒出“天價”，同樣有人質疑，加密貨幣會不會是新的金融騙局？
In financial history, frauds such as the tulip bubbles and the South China Sea bubbles have grown. Now, when only small groups of people recognize the encoded currency has created a “natural price”, some question whether the encoded currency would be a new financial fraud.
新加坡國立大學客座教授白士泮認為，加密貨幣如比特幣原本只是吸引相信區塊鏈技術、擁護去中心化金融理念的人，在小眾社群被接受為支付工具，但近期比特幣價格劇烈波動更源於市場炒作和越來越多的投機者加入。
The visiting professor of the University of Singapore, Shizuku, argued that encrypt currency such as bitcoins had been accepted as a payment tool in small communities by those who believed in chain technology and embraced the idea of centralization of finance, but more recently it had been the result of market shopping and the growing number of investors.
郭杰表示，比特幣實際應用場景非常有限，其價格飆升是典型的投機泡沫，與17世紀荷蘭“郁金香泡沫”相似，甚至可以說是“龐氏騙局”。郭杰說，追捧加密貨幣的機構擅長用晦澀難懂的科技術語，說服投資者相信這是革命性現象，創造市場盲目投資的“羊群效應”。
Guo Jie said that Bitcoins actually have a very limited field of appliance, and that its price boom is a typical drop bubble, similar to the 17th-century Dutch tulip bubble, or even a ponzi scheme. Guo Jie said that institutions that promote encrypted currency are good at using obscurantistic technical terms, arguing that investors believe that it is a revolutionary phenomenon that creates a “sheep effect” of blind investment in the market.
美國伊利諾伊理工大學斯圖爾特商學院經濟學教授哈伊裡·圖爾克表示，加密貨幣有不受政府干預監管、跨境方便的特點，受到一部分人追捧。但仔細分析，這種需要不斷有新投資者加入才能提高價格的邏輯基本就是一種“龐氏騙局”。
Harry Türk, Professor of Economics at the Stewart School of Business, Illinois University of Technology, United States, says that encryption currency has special features that are not subject to government oversight and are easily cross-border. But the logic that requires new investors to join in order to raise prices is basically a “Ponzi fraud.”
監管路在何方
Where's the strong?
各國貨幣監管機構普遍認為，加密貨幣用算法隱藏了使用者的身份、行蹤，為非法活動提供便利。同時加密貨幣杠杆率極高，給金融體系帶來風險。
It is widely believed by national money regulators that encryption currency uses algorithms to hide users’ identities, whereabouts, and facilitate illegal activities. At the same time, encryption currency leverage is extremely high, putting financial systems at risk.
市場研究機構MRB合伙公司分析師聖地亞哥·埃斯皮諾薩分析，由於央行和政府無法介入加密貨幣交易，因此難以得到官方支持。他認為，美國市場監管機構將進一步採取措施持續監管加密貨幣。
The market research institute MRB Partnership analyst, Santiago Espinosa, analysed the lack of official support for the central bank’s and the government’s inability to intervene in encrypt currency transactions. He argued that US market regulators would take further steps to maintain continuous surveillance of the encrypt currency.
另據日本《讀賣新聞》網站報道，加密資產交易杠杆率高，在利潤巨大的同時，風險同樣巨大。缺乏真實資產作支撐的加密貨幣交易已呈現“泡沫”態勢。
According to another report from Japan’s “Sales News” website, encryption is highly leveraged, with the same risks at a time when the profits are huge. The lack of real assets to support encrypt currency transactions has shown a “foam” situation.
美國財政部此前表示，加密貨幣價格飆升帶來負面影響，因此制定了新的金融賬戶報告制度。加密貨幣和加密資產交易賬戶以及接受加密貨幣的支付服務賬戶將納入政府監測范疇。
The U.S. Treasury has previously stated that the negative impact of the price increase in encrypted currency has led to the development of a new financial account reporting system. Encrypted currency and encrypted asset trading accounts, as well as payment services that receive encrypted currency, will be included in the government’s surveillance model.
除美國外，日本和韓國監管機構均已採取措施，對金融機構持有和從事加密貨幣交易加強監管。（新華社發）
With the exception of the United States, Japan and the Korean regulatory agencies have taken measures to strengthen surveillance of financial institutions holding and performing encrypt currency transactions.
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