一个以太币值多少人民币,2020年以太坊价格预测!

资讯 2024-06-25 阅读:35 评论:0
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以太坊于2015年7月30日发布了它的第一个版本,也就是所谓的Frontier。一周之后,以太坊在交易所上市。根据Coinmarketcap的记录,2015年的8月8日,以太坊上交易所(Kraken)后的价格为2.77美元,当天的交易量达到205,324美元。

就2015年来说,这个开端可以说非常亮眼。相对于其在2014年7到9月的众筹价格来说,算是开门红。当时1ETH的众筹价格大概是0.3到0.45美元左右,也就是其上市后的涨幅超过6倍。

This start can be said to be quite bright in 2015. It was a big opening in comparison to its July-September 2014 crowd-raising price.

但好景不长,4天后价格大幅下跌,到8月11日,其价格跌至0.67美元左右。下跌原因可能是早期投资者抛售导致,这跟之前很多代币刚上交易所时的轨迹非常类似。

But the good news is not long, with prices falling sharply after four days, falling to around $0.67 by 11 August. The decline may be due to early investor sales, which are very similar to the trajectory of many of the earlier generations when they first entered the exchange.

不过到8月14日,价格反弹至1.98美元,是三天前的三倍多,交易量也达到470多万美元。但这只不过是暂时反弹而已。随后,以太坊价格一路向下,直至2015年10月22日,以太坊价格跌至历史最低点0.42美元。不过,从早期众筹参与者的角度看,以太坊历史上基本没有跌破众筹价。下跌时期大约持续了2个半月。

By August 14, however, the price rebounded to $1.98, more than three times that of three days ago, and the volume of transactions reached more than $4.7 million. This was only a temporary rebound.

在2015年10月22日跌至历史最低点之后,经过一周多的调整,以太坊逐渐回到了围绕1美元上下波动的时代,直到2016年的1月份。

After falling to an all-time low on 22 October 2015, after more than a week of adjustment, Ethio gradually returned to an era of fluctuations around a dollar until January 2016.

这段时期以太坊举行了Devcon-1开发者大会,也就是2015年11月9日到13日,此次大会让以太坊引起了更多人的关注。这种活动有利于增加人们对以太坊未来价值的预期,从而将其价格稳定在了1美元左右,没有继续下跌。

During this period, the Devcon-1 Developer’s Conference was held in Etheria, from 9 to 13 November 2015, which drew more attention to it. The event helped to increase expectations of Ether’s future value, thereby stabilizing its prices at around $1 and not continuing to fall.

经历早期的暴涨和暴跌后,且经过历时2个半月的调整,市场对ETH的最终价格逐步达成一定的共识,基本上在1美元上下波动。恰巧的是,这一时期也维持了大约2个半月左右。

After an early surge and collapse, and after a two-and-a-half-month adjustment, there was a gradual consensus in the market about the final prices of ETH, which fluctuated around $1. Coincidentally, the period also lasted about two-and-a-half months.

这是以太坊价格史上的第一次真正跃迁。从2016年1月初开始到3月中旬,以太坊价格从1美元左右跃升至10美元以上。这个过程也花了大约2个月左右的时间。

This is the first real leap in the history of taupe prices. From the beginning of January to mid-March 2016, taupe prices jumped from around $1 to over $10. The process also took about two months.

这一时期的主要事件是对以太坊更稳定版本(Homestead)发布的预期,在3月14日,最高价格达到15美元。以太坊的总市值超过11亿美元,进入独角兽级别。

The main event during this period was the expected release of a more stable version of the Etherkom (Homestead), with a maximum price of $15 on 14 March. The total market value of the Etherpant was over $1.1 billion, entering the Unicorn class.

不过随着3月14日Homestead硬分叉发布之后,利好消息消化完毕,以太坊价格开始下跌,于4月30日跌至7.39美元的谷底。不过随后的一段时间围绕10美元左右上下波动。这一时期简称为以太坊价格史上的“10美元时代”。10美元时代是以太坊价格史上持续最长的时期,从2016年3月直到2017年2月中旬,大约持续了11个月左右。

However, with the release of Homestead's hard fork on 14 March, the good news was absorbed and the price of the taupulega began to fall to the bottom of $7.39 on 30 April. But the ensuing period fluctuated around about $10. This period is called the “$10 era” in the history of taupe prices. The 10-dollar era was the longest period in the history of taupe prices and lasted about 11 months from March 2016 until mid-February 2017.

从上述事件看,Homestead版本的发布是以太坊从1美元时代跃迁至10美元时代的关键事件。

In the light of the above, the release of the Homestead version was a key event in the transition from a dollar-era to a $10-year-old era.

此外,2016年期间还发生过一次较大的涨跌。这都与The DAO事件相关。The DAO开启了以太坊的众筹。鉴于The DAO项目筹集了1,200万个ETH,在当时价值1.5亿美元。这推动了人们对以太坊前景的乐观预期,期间的价格曾经在2016年6月16日拉升到了历史新高18.43美元。

In addition, there was a major ups and downs in 2016. This is all related to the DAO event. The DAO has launched a popular campaign for Etheria. Given that the DAO project raised 12 million ETHs, valued at $150 million at that time. This has boosted optimism about Ether’s prospects, when prices rose to an all-time high of $18.43 on 16 June 2016.

但好景不长,随后发生了黑客攻击事件。The DAO被黑客盗取价值5000万美元的ETH。人们高涨的热情瞬间被浇灭,在随后的半年多时间里以太坊价格一直处于向下的趋势,不过基本上还能维持在10美元左右,最低价格出现在2016年12月28日,跌至7.09美元。

The DAO was stolen by hackers for $50 million of ETH. People’s enthusiasm was swept away, and the following six months were marked by a downward trend in the price of Tai-Fan, although it remained essentially around $10, with the lowest price falling to $7.09 on December 28, 2016.

10美元时代的ETH有两大的重要事件,一是Homestead的发布,二是The DAO项目事件。Homestead将以太坊从1美元拉升至10美元时代,让以太坊总市值突破10亿美元。The DAO项目原本拉升人们对以太坊未来的预期,但黑客事件极大阻击了以太坊向上的动能。

The ETH of the 10-dollar era has two major events, one the release of Homestead and the other the project of The DAO. Homestead will raise the entire market value of Etheria from $1 to $10. The DAO project would have raised expectations of Ether’s future, but the hacker’s incident was a major setback to the movement of Ether.

围绕The DAO项目的黑客事件,以太坊社区分裂成为两个派别,一个派别主张通过硬分叉实现资金回滚,而另一派则反对这一行动,因为它违反了区块链不可篡改的精神。最后以太坊实施了硬分叉,产生了ETH和ETC两条链。这样的社区之争也导致以太坊价格下跌。即便如此,以太坊依然维持在10美元上下波动的时代,在这一阶段基本稳住脚跟。

The hackers around the DAO project split the community into two factions, one advocating a return of money through a hard split, while the other opposed it because it violated the inexorable spirit of the block chain. Finally, it implemented a hard split, resulting in two chains: ETH and ETC. Such communal disputes also led to a fall in the prices of the community.

期间以太坊还发生过DDos攻击等,这些负面的消息导致其在2016年12月处于价格低迷状态,不过仍然没有跌破7美元。

There were also DDos attacks in Etheria during the period, and these negative news led to a price downturn in December 2016, although it still fell by $7.

从2016年Homestead版本发布之后,即便遭遇众多负面事件,以太坊依然没有重回1美元的时代,这说明人们对以太坊的市场价格基本达成了相对稳定的共识。

Even after the release of the Homestead version in 2016, even after numerous negative events, the Ether House has not returned to the $1 era, indicating a relatively stable consensus on market prices in Ether.

从2017年2月中旬到6月中旬,在短短的4个月时间,以太坊从10美元左右涨至6月14日的400.42美元,最高涨幅达到40倍,这也是以太坊价格历史上涨幅最高的阶段。直接将以太坊价格从10美元时代拉升至数百美元的时代。

From mid-February to mid-June 2017, in a short period of four months, the rate rose from around US$ 10 to US$ 400.42 on June 14, a 40-fold increase, the highest in the history of the increase in the price of the price of the price of the price of the price. The price of the price of the price will rise directly from US$ 10 to hundreds of dollars.

那么,这一阶段发生了什么事情?

So, what happened at this stage?

2017年2月23日,以太坊被添加到eToro(交易者社交平台)

On February 23, 2017, Ether was added to eToro (traffic social platform)

比特币在2017年2月底出现大量拥堵交易,这导致交易者对速度更快的新区块链平台有更好价值预期,以太坊成功地获得投资者们的注意。随后3月份以太坊成功突破20美元加速了这一上升的趋势。

2017年5月初,比特币再次出现交易拥堵,再次提醒人们以太坊的可能价值预期。

In early May 2017, Bitcoin re-emerged with a trade congestion that served as a reminder of the potential value of the Taikus.

与此同时,ETH逐渐成为加密项目众筹的首选代币。随着2017年成百上千的区块链项目开展众筹,ETH的需求量有了实质的增加。

At the same time, ETH is becoming the preferred currency for encryption projects. The demand for ETH has increased substantially with hundreds of block chain projects in 2017.

以上的事情(包括其他未提及的因素)导致人们对以太坊价格逐步形成了数百美元价值的共识。

The above (including other factors not mentioned) has led to a consensus on the value of hundreds of dollars over time in the prices of the Pacific.

这一期间以太坊也出现多次的下跌。例如从2017年6月中旬开始,出现了一些下跌,7月中旬跌至154美元左右。但随后稳定了下来,一直在200-400美元之间波动,这一期间的调整主要是对之前涨幅过高过快的修整。不过即便是2017年9月份监管到来,其价格也只跌至250美元左右。随后以太坊价格一直围绕300美元上下波动,直到2017年11月中旬。这个期间大约维持了2个月。

This period was also marked by a number of declines, such as a fall in mid-June 2017, which fell to around $154 in mid-July. But then it stabilized and fluctuated between $200 and $400, and the adjustment for this period was mainly overstretched. But even when regulation came in September 2017, prices fell to around $250.

从2017年11月中旬开始到2018年1月中旬,大概2个月的时间,以太坊从300美元左右涨至最高1400多美元。2018年1月14日,以太坊达到迄今为止历史最高价格1427.48美元,当天日交易量超过56亿美元。

From mid-November 2017 to mid-January 2018, it rose from about $300 to a maximum of $1,400 in about two months. On 14 January 2018, it reached its historic highest price of $142.48, with transactions of over $5.6 billion on that day.

这两个月是整个加密社区最狂热的时期。不仅是以太坊和比特币,其他加密货币的价格也达到了历史的高点。

These two months are the most ecstatic periods in the entire encryption community. Not only is the price of Taiwan and Bitcoin, but the price of other encrypted currencies has reached historic heights.

在将以太坊从300多美元推升至1400多美元的疯狂牛市中,有几个关键点:

There are several key points in the mad cow market, which will push the talisman from more than $300 to more than $1,400:

2017年10月中旬,以太坊拜占庭网络激活,这为新一轮的向上发展提供了技术的基本面。

In mid-October 2017, the Byzantine network was activated, providing the technological infrastructure for a new round of upward development.

以ETH作为众筹代币的项目持续增加,出现数千个众筹项目,部分众筹项目上交易所之后暴涨,这导致众筹项目在市场上备受追捧,同时这也跟普通用户无法直接参与相关。市场的氛围呈现出狂热和不理性状态。

There has been a steady increase in the number of projects using ETH as a proxy, with thousands of crowd-raising projects and a surge in some of them on the exchange, which has led to the popularization of projects on the market, which is also linked to the inability of ordinary users to participate directly. The market atmosphere is characterized by fanaticism and irrationality.

比特币继续拉升,直接带动整个加密市场的火爆,有无数毫无经验的新用户蜂拥而入,导致包括以太坊在内的整个加密市场非理性的暴涨,极大超出价值的基本面。

Bitcoin continues to rise, leading directly to the explosion of the entire encryption market, with numerous inexperienced new users rushing into it, leading to an irrational surge in the entire encryption market, including the Etherm, which greatly exceeds the fundamentals of value.

从2018年1月中旬开始,以太坊走向下跌之路。虽然期间有反弹,以太坊曾经在600-800美元之间挺了一两个月,但最终没能挺住,由此开启一路向下的模式,最终在2018年12月15日,跌至84.55美元。这个价格相当于2017年5月中旬的水平。不过,随后以太坊价格稳定在100-300美元之间徘徊,没有继续向下。

Beginning in mid-January 2018, Etheria was on its way to decline. Although there was a rebound during the period, Ether was able to survive for a month or two between $600 and $800, it eventually failed to survive, thus opening a downward pattern, which eventually fell to $84.55 on December 15, 2018. The price was the same as in mid-May 2017.

经过一年多梦幻泡影,以太坊终于回归100美元时代。这一期间有几个关键点:

After more than a year of nightmares, Etherom finally returned to the 100-dollar era. There were several key points during this period:

市场的非理性繁荣,导致早期的入局者开始套现离场,引发市场的连锁反应,以太坊也无法幸免。

The irrational boom in the market has led to the departure of early entrants, triggering a chain reaction in the market, to the point where the Ether was not spared.

整体加密市场的价格下跌,这也导致新加密项目上交易所后很难有亮眼表现,导致众筹项目开始走向萎缩,直接导致对ETH需求的下跌。

The price of the overall encryption market has fallen, which has also made it difficult to be visible when new encryption projects are on the exchange, leading to a contraction of crowd-sourcing projects and a direct decline in demand for ETH.

雪上加霜的是,在2017年众筹期间筹集大量ETH代币的项目,疯狂地抛售ETH,进一步加剧了ETH的下跌之势。

Added to this is the frenzied sale of ETH during a project to raise large amounts of ETH in 2017, further exacerbating the downward trend in ETH.

以太坊2018年君士坦丁堡硬分叉升级推迟以及比特币继续下跌,市场情绪悲观,以太坊跌破100美元(84.55美元)。

The postponement of the upgrading of the hard fork in Constantinople in 2018 and the continued fall of Bitcoin led to market pessimism and a collapse of $100 ($84.55).

2018和2019年DeFi的发展、2019年2月康士坦丁堡升级和12月的伊斯坦布尔升级、以及对ETH2.0的预期为ETH价格稳住了局势。

The development of DeFi in 2018 and 2019, the escalation of Constantinople in February and Istanbul in December 2019 and the expectation of ETH 2.0 have stabilized the situation.

在2018年12月中旬,以太坊跌破100美元之后,2019年以太坊的价格基本上都稳定在100-300美元之间,直至今日。

After falling 100 dollars in mid-December 2018, in 2019, the prices of the Taiwan remained essentially stable at between $100 and $300 until today.

从以太坊2015年8月上交易所到现在,已经过去了4年多,在短短几年时间,以太坊价格经历了过山车的发展。

More than four years have passed since Ether took up the exchange in August 2015 and, in just a few years, it has gone through the development of a mountain car at the price of Ether.

经过2019年一年的调整和消化之后,以太坊价格基本稳定在100-300美元之间。这也是市场经过一年多的反复修正打磨出来的。

After a year of adjustment and digestion in 2019, the price of the taupulega remained essentially stable at between $100 and $300. The market was also sharpened after more than a year of repeated revisions.

随着以太坊基本面的提升和市场情绪的变化,以太坊的2020年终归不会是平稳的一年。

The year 2020 will not be a smooth year with the upgrading of the Etherm fundamentals and changes in market sentiment.

首先是DeFi逐渐找到产品和市场的契合,当前DeFi项目锁定的ETH达到310万个,DeFi项目对ETH的需求会持续增加。其次是以太坊layer 2的Rollup方案发展给人们带来期望,同时以太坊上的隐私解决方案(如Aztec)也带来更多可能性。最后ETH2.0的PoS对ETH的需求预期也会导致市场将其反映到价格中。

The first is DeFi’s gradual convergence of products and markets, with 3.1 million ETHs currently targeted by the DeFi project, and the continuing increase in demand for ETH by the DeFi project. The second is that the development of the Rollup program with Taiyolayer 2 has created expectations, as well as more possibilities for privacy solutions (e.g. Aztec). Finally, the PoS demand for ETH 2.0 is expected to result in the market reflecting it in prices.

以太坊这些基本面的发展加上2020年比特币的减半事件,有不少人对2020年的以太坊充满乐观。

The development of these fundamentals of the Etherm, coupled with the halving of Bitcoin in 2020, has led many to be optimistic about the Etherms in 2020.

从上述发展看,对以太坊乐观是可以理解的。不过,这是常规的逻辑,如果出现一些黑天鹅事件,也可能会产生重大的反复,比如DeFi项目资产的安全性问题、比特币减半后一段时间可能的不确定性问题、其他不可预测的安全问题、监管问题等。

In view of these developments, it is understandable to be optimistic about Etheria. But this is a routine logic, and if some black swan events occur, there may also be major repetitions, such as the safety of the DeFi project’s assets, possible uncertainty over a period of half of Bitcoin, other unpredictable security issues, regulatory issues, etc.

总的来说,2020年的以太坊可能没有2017年那么激荡,但也有很大的概率比2019年的变化大得多。

Overall, the 2020 Etheria may not be as hot as it was in 2017, but there is also a significant probability that it will change much more than in 2019.

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