一币一别墅,比特币突破24000美元后币圈人却“集体丢币”,怎么回事?

资讯 2024-06-25 阅读:47 评论:0
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——“你掉水里的存币硬盘真的找不回来了吗?”

-- "Can't you really find the coin disk in the water?" .

——“对,但我丢币的事你不要写,别人一看就知道你们被采访者骗了。因为最近大家都说自己没币了。”

-- "Yes, but you don't write about me throwing your money. People can tell you're being lied to by the interviewer. People say they don't have money."

图片

“金钱万能”,且从不局限于形式。古代中国,贝壳曾为货币,“二战”后的德国,香烟曾作为货币流通。一直到公元前600年,第一批金铸货币才出现。

In ancient China, shells were currency, in Germany after World War II, cigarettes were in circulation as money. Until 600 B.C., the first gold-casting currency appeared.

如今,货币已经超越贵金属,甚至任何一种物理形式,越来越抽象,以一组符号的形式出现。不变的是,经常让人捉摸不透、误会重重。

Today, money has gone beyond precious metals, even in any physical form, and has become increasingly abstract, in the form of a set of symbols. Unchanged, it is often confusing and misleading.

就在刚刚过去的周末,比特币曾冲高到24053美元,赚足了惊叹和疑惑,因为一个月内还它曾低至16645美元——这种涨幅就相当于,A股突然飙回了2015年的5178点,还持续在突破。

Just over the past weekend, Bitcoin went up to US$ 24,053 and earned a great deal of surprise and confusion, because a month later it was down to US$ 16,645 — an increase like — and the A share suddenly jumped back to the 2015 point of 5178 — and it continues to make a breakthrough.

在比特币再次变成话题焦点之时,偏见和信仰也重复交织。有趣的是,站在中立的视角我们看到,“没有国家信用做背书”既是偏见之矛,也是信仰之盾。

As Bitcoin once again becomes the focus of the topic, prejudice and faith overlap. Interestingly, from a neutral perspective, we see that “strong without state credit for endorsement” is both the spear of prejudice and the shield of faith.

现实生活中,真正“玩币”的人并不多见。通过朋友介绍,我找到一位将比特币视为“信仰”,但自称“不炒币”的比特币资深玩家“红桃P”(化名)。我们在程序员云集的中关村上地约了一顿午餐,让这场对谈更加应景。

In real life, there are not many real money players. Through my friends, I found a senior Bitcoin player, “P of hearts”, who considered Bitcoin to be a “belief”, but called it “no coins”. We had a lunch in the middle of the programmer's collection, making the conversation more appropriate.

一个有意思的问题是,“很多挖币公司就在这附近,为什么没有被取缔?”

An interesting question is, "Many money-digging companies are around here. Why aren't they banned?"

这是一个低调又谨慎的人,菜已经端上桌面,还不愿意摘下口罩。但对于比特币的任何质疑,他都能自如的解答。也让我首次了解到“奥地利经济学派”,是他和很多人与比特币“一见钟情”的源点

This is a low-key and cautious man, who has taken the table and is not ready to remove his mask. But he can answer any question about Bitcoin. And for the first time, let me know the “Austrian Economics” — the source of his and many others' “love at first sight” with Bitcoin — .

“比特币的出现,就是打破你的认知的。”他说。

"The appearance of Bitcoin is a break in your perception," he said.

《左手天才右手疯子》中的一个“疯子”说,“想看到真正的世界,就要用天的眼睛去看天,用云的眼睛去看云……用人的眼睛去看人。”或许,思想是一堵墙,墙外才是世界。

“To see the real world, you have to see the sky with the eyes of the sky, the clouds with the eyes of the clouds and the people with the eyes.” Perhaps the idea is a wall, the world outside it.

在比特币大涨斡旋在23000美元的今天,谁能笃定的说,“一币一别墅”、“会到40万美金”的狂言终将变为泡影还是现实。

Today, when Bitcoin's good offices went up at $23,000, who would be sure to say, “One dollar, one house, four million dollars” would eventually be lost or a reality?

以下内容根据采访对话整理:

The following is based on the interview dialogue:

01

大涨以后,币圈人:

"集体丢币"、"狂发红包"、"要请保镖"?

记者:你现在觉得还是一币一别墅吗?

Reporter Strong: Do you still think it's one dollar a house?

红桃:可能吧,现在就是一币一别墅了?去五线城市就是一别墅。

hearts: Maybe, it's a one-dollar villa now? To the five-line city is a villa.

记者:放在北京、上海,可能目前还是一币一平米。那你现在认识的很多人都是“富豪”了?

Reporter Strong: In Beijing, Shanghai, maybe a dollar. So many of the people you know now are "rich"?

红桃:没有,一样都是很多行业的从业者,都是打工人。

hearts: No, the same is true for many industries and workers.

记者:那他们这两天大涨,他们有什么反应吗?在各种群里。

Reporter strong: So they've been up for two days. How do they react? In groups.

红桃:整体情况是这波上涨很多人没有上车,但囤币群有很多发红包的,额度也大了,还有些发比特币红包的,就是在比特币的托管钱包里。

hearts: The overall situation is that a lot of people don't get in the car, but there are a lot of red packs and large amounts of money hoarding, and some bitcoins are in Bitcoin's trust purse.

记者:平时你们币圈之间联系多吗?

Reporter : Do you usually have a lot of connections between the currency circles?

红桃:看人,有的人就喜欢交际,但我不喜欢。

hearts: Look at people. Some people like to have sex, but I don't.

记者:当时比特币是通过什么买的呢?买了多少,炒币有什么故事吗?

Reporter : What was Bitcoin through? How much did you buy and what's the story?

红桃:最早是比特币中国,2017年后已经关停了。还有几个大交易所,OKcoin、火币。数量就不用说了,那不就是凡尔赛了嘛。我不讲故事,而且我没有故事,因为我不是那种经常炒来炒去的人。

hearts: The first was Bitcoin China, which was closed after 2017. There were a few big exchanges, OKcoin, and coins. There was no amount, that was Versailles. I didn't tell a story, and I didn't have a story, because I wasn't the kind of person who used to fire.

记者:你那年买的时候,预料到它能涨这么高吗?

Reporter Strong: When you bought it that year, did you expect it to rise so high?

红桃:不知道,那时候的目标预期是到一万八千人民币,结果谁知道2017年真的到了。

hearts: It was not known that the target was expected to reach 18,000 yuan, and who knew that the year 2017 had indeed come.

记者:我听说币圈人集体说把比特币存在硬盘里,然后外出钓鱼掉在海里了,因此丢了币,真的找不回来了吗?

Reporter strong: I heard the ringers say they put bitcoin in a hard drive and then fished out in the ocean and lost it. Can't they really get it back?

红桃:对,但你如果这么写,别人一看就知道你们被采访者骗了,这是币圈的“MEME”概念(梗)。

hearts: Yes, but if you write this, people will know that you were deceived by the interviewer, which is the concept of “MEME” in the currency ring.

记者:币圈为什么说到丢币就是被骗了?

Reporter strong: Why does a coin ring mean it's deluded?

红桃:现在很多人说丢币是假的,或者他只是不想让人知道他有币,说自己没币了。

hearts: is now said by many to be false

记者:为什么都藏着,不想让别人知道?

Reporter strong: Why are they hiding, don't you want anyone to know?

红桃:危险吧。币圈出了好多安全事故,有人就被犯罪团伙盯上了。我以后朋友圈都不准备发币圈相关的东西了。

hearts: It's dangerous. There's a lot of security accidents around the currency, and some people are being targeted by criminal gangs. My friends' circles are not ready for anything related to the currency chain.

图片

02

奥地利学派的“信仰”

记者:你什么时候开始买比特币的呢?有买别的其他的金融资产吗?比如股票、基金?

Reporter Strong: When did you start buying bitcoin? Did you buy other financial assets? stocks, funds?

红桃:2013年几百块的时候买的比特币。但我不炒股,因为我不懂股票,不碰自己不懂的东西,而且资金有限。

hearts: Bitcoins for hundreds of dollars in 2013. But I don't do stock because I don't know stocks, I don't touch things I don't know, and I have limited funds.

记者:当时比特币是非常新鲜的,通过什么渠道接触、了解到比特币?

Reporter : When Bitcoin was so fresh, what channels did you get to know bitcoin?

红桃:此前国内媒体都还没有大规模报道,到了2013年底涨到八千(人民币)的时候,媒体才有关注,第一次进入大众视野吧。

hearts: Until then, there had been no mass media coverage in the country, and it was only at the end of 2013 that the media received attention and entered public view for the first time.

2013年初,我听到朋友说起比特币这东西,如果你了解奥地利学派的话,听到比特币的运行法则,你就一定会觉得这是个好东西。我以前在学校的时候读过经济学,对经济的理解受到奥地利学派的影响。

At the beginning of 2013, I heard friends talking about bitcoin, and if you knew the Austrian school, you'd think it was a good thing to hear about bitcoin's operating rules. I used to read economics at school, and the understanding of the economy was influenced by the Austrian school.

记者:简单介绍一下奥地利学派?

Reporter : A brief introduction to the Austrian school?

红桃:就是坚持自由放任的经济主张。我们所有的市场活动,政府越少来干预越好,就像亚当斯密所指的“看不见的手”这个原则同样可以用在货币上。有这个背景,就会认同比特币的价值,就会去买了。

hearts: To insist on liberal economic propositions. The less our market activities, the better the government intervenes, the better the principle of , “invisible hands” , which can also be used in money. With this background, the value of bitcoin will be accepted and bought.

记者:那现在这圈人,是不是都变得更有钱了?

Reporter Strong: Are these circles more rich now?

红桃:囤币的人“发财”了。我们这两天还在调侃,国内某知名挖币平台的老板应该马上去请保镖,早期挖币,用笔记本电脑就能挖,据说他当时还丢过几千枚。

hearts: The man who hoards the money is “rich”. We've been plowing for the past two days. The owner of a well-known money-digging platform in the country should immediately go and ask for bodyguards to dig the money early enough to dig it with a laptop, and he reportedly threw thousands of them.

记者:挖矿的那些人现在还赚钱吗?

Reporter Strong: Do the diggers make money now?

红桃:应该也挣钱,越猛涨越挣。但要看投入了,一般都是刚开始有一笔大投入,矿工也会有一些手段,可以做“套保”(一种“对冲手段”)。

hearts: You should also make money, but depending on the input, it's usually the first big input, and the miners have some tools to “enhance” (a “opposing device”).

记者:那你认识炒币的人吗?

Reporter strong: Do you know the man who sells the coins?

红桃:我身边很少。像那种炒币亏了千万然后跳楼之类的新闻,我们也是在群里看的媒体消息,我身边没有这样的人。

hearts: I'm rarely around. News like that takes millions of dollars and jumps out of the building, and we're watching the news in the crowd, and there's no such person around me.

记者:你不觉得2013年的时候,那个时候买比特币的话,很大的运气成分在里面吗?

Reporter Strong: Don't you think a lot of luck was in there when you bought Bitcoin in 2013?

红桃:对,很多人就是这样,凭运气挣到钱了,再凭实力亏掉了。很多报道是没有意义的,说它涨了几万倍,但是币是从一个人转到另外一个人手里。只有那些很牛的,刚开始就参与的,持有一直不动用,才能拿到那个收益。

hearts: That's how many people get paid by luck and lose by strength. There's a lot of news that goes up tens of thousands of times, but the money goes from one person to another. Only those who get involved from the very beginning, hold it and never use it.

记者:你觉为什么会有这样的人,相信比特币?

Reporter Strong: Why do you think there are people who believe in Bitcoin?

红桃:就是有信仰。

hearts: Have faith.

记者:什么算有信仰?

Reporter: What is faith?

红桃:看怎么理解信仰?有盲目的信仰比如宗教、中医等,有对科学逻辑分析得出的结论的相信。比特币信仰者大约算是后者。

hearts: How do you understand faith? There are blind faiths like religion, Chinese medicine, and so on, and there is faith in the conclusions of the scientific logic analysis. Bitcoin believers are sort of the latter.

记者:可是不出结果的时候,你也不知道你这个信仰对错?

Reporter Strong: But you don't know if you're right or wrong when it doesn't work out?

红桃:马云不是说过,因为相信才能看见。现实是很多人是看见了之后,才会相信它。九几年就做互联网,不是因为看见了事实,他是相信将来的发展趋势就是互联网、线上化,才去干的。

hearts: Ma Yun didn't say that because he believed he could see. The reality is that many people saw it before they could believe it. It was not because he saw the truth, but because he believed that the future was going to be the Internet and online.

图片

图片:“挖币”设备需要耗费巨大的电量

03

“比特币创造的目的,就是要颠覆认知”

记者:当时身边有其他人买吗?

Reporter : Were there anyone else around to buy it?

红桃基本没有,我有一直在推荐周围的同事买。

hearts : , I've been offering them to colleagues around me.

记者:你是诚心诚意的觉得这个东西真的好?怎么给人家推荐的?

Reporter Strong: Do you really think this is a good thing? How do you recommend it?

红桃:对,真的认为很好。当时有些同事从事财经领域的,比较懂行。

hearts: Yeah, that's good. Some of our colleagues were in the financial field, and they were good at it.

记者:作为无政府货币,比特币一直以来的极大争议在于,没有法律保护,我怎么相信它的安全性呢?

Reporter strong: As an unincorporated currency, bitcoin has always had a great deal of controversy about how can I believe in its security without legal protection?

红桃:先说法律问题。我的理解,法律分自然法和实体法(就是政府制定法),但可能有时候政府当前的法律规定不一定是合理的,其实很多时候很多事物本身靠自发性,它看起来暂时是违法的,可能反而是需要法律做出改变。 如果必须任何事都在现有法律框架内,社会就不会有进步。而且比特币本身,它创造的目的就是要颠覆你的(认知)

In my understanding, the law is divided between natural law and substantive law (that is, the law of government), but it may sometimes be that the current legal provisions of the government

记者:那你认为比特币的意义是什么?

Reporter: What do you think Bitcoin means?

红桃我曾总结过,比特币的重大意义。历史上有政教分离。当然中国没有这个方面的问题,欧洲国家是政教分离以后,才有了人类的思想解放,启蒙运动、工业革命、科学革命,才进入现代社会。

hearts : : I summed up the significance of Bitcoin. There has been secularism throughout history. Of course, there is no problem with China. The European countries were free of human thought after secularism. The Enlightenment Movement, the Industrial Revolution, and the Scientific Revolution entered modern society.

而比特币的作用是“政币分离”,政权和货币分离,它的目的就是要把货币从国家的掌控中拿出来,实现自由的市场经济

The role of Bitcoin, however, is to “segregate the political currency” .

记者:支持它的人和反对它的人都在用这个说法来维护自己的观点。

Reporter : Those who support it and those who oppose it are using it to defend their views.

红桃:当然很多人说不可能,我感觉这就是被旧有观念所束缚。就像在政教分离之前,很多人肯定也会说政教分离是不可能的,但它就会发生了。

hearts: Of course, a lot of people say it's impossible, and I feel bound by old ideas. Just like before the secularism, a lot of people will say that secularism is impossible, but it will happen.

记者:那这个过程可能非常漫长。

Reporter : This could be a very long process.

红桃对,肯定是这样的,但是比特币的发展速度会比较快,因为现在已经进入互联网时代了。

hearts : must be, but bitcoin will grow faster because it is now in the Internet age.

记者:但到目前为止,它没有办法作为支付性的货币,因为支付的等待时长会受到技术的限制。

Reporter : To date, however, it has not been able to act as a currency of payment because the waiting period for payment is limited by technology.

红桃:怎么说呢,比特币是想做成点对点的支付,但其实也不需要,因为只要能做结算就可以了。就跟黄金一样,当年以黄金作为货币的时候,日常生活中是不是也不用黄金,只用白银和铜币。只有做大额结算才用黄金,比如国际贸易大额结算。 比特币现在定位就是是价值存储,还有大额网上结算,比如转一百亿、一千亿美元的比特币,手续费可能也就几美元,非常便宜。同样的情况下,去银行肯定要多花很多钱。

hearts: In a word, Bitcoin is trying to make a point-to-point payment, but it's not really necessary, because it can be settled as long as it can. Like gold, when gold was used as a currency, it was not used for daily life, but for silver and copper only. Only large settlements, such as international trade, are made with gold. bitcoin is now positioned as a value deposit , and large online settlements, such as the transfer of $10 billion, $100 billion, may cost a few dollars , which would be very cheap. In the same case, going to a bank would cost a lot more money.

记者:各个国家队比特币的态度不同,如果从这个层面上,有一些国家尤其是一些小国,应该支持?

Reporter : At this level, a number of countries, especially small ones, should support , given the different attitudes of the country teams in Bitcoin?

红桃:加密货币能存活的一个关键是国际竞争。一个国家可以禁止,但没有用,因为国家之间是有竞争的。就跟宗教一样,当年宗教改革,别的国家改革了,你不改革,你就会被别的国家竞争掉。

hearts: A key to the survival of the encrypted currency of . One country can ban, but not use, because there is competition between countries. Just like religion, when religious reform took place, another country reformed, and if you don't reform, you'll be competing with another country.

记者:话说回来,如果是我的话,我即便同意你的这种观点,也相信它会发展,但是我还是觉得在国内的政策环境下,一个不受正面支持的金融类产物,如果去买它,是会石沉大海的感觉?

Reporter Strong: Anyway, if I were you, I would believe it would grow, even if I were you, but I still feel that, in the domestic policy environment, a financial product that is not supported positively, if it were bought, would be stifling?

红桃:这就是固有观念的束缚。你没有推敲“国家禁止”的这个结论是对是错,只是把它接受了而已。当前的政策不是万能的,如果是万能的,我们就不用改革开放了,它可以禁止,但能成功么,不一定的,对吧?

hearts: That's the bounds of the inherent idea. You're right and wrong not to parse the conclusion of “national prohibitions” but to accept it. The current policy is not all-powerful. If it's all-powerful, we don't have to reform and open it. It can be banned, but it works, not necessarily.

04

“比特币不稳定是正常现象”

记者:目前,其实我们的政策既没有支持它,也没有禁止个人交易?

Reporter Strong: At present, our policy does not support it, nor does it prohibit individual transactions?

红桃:这个可能是没有办法,因为毕竟我们在改革开放以后,对于新事物不能像从前一样说不接受就不接受。现在我们要做中华民族伟大复兴,如果比特币真的是未来很牛的科技手段,或者成为主流,你却完全把它拒之门外,怎么办?而且国内也鼓励创新,你想想,前几年连P2P都鼓励过嘛。

hearts: There may be no way, because, after reform and opening up, we can't accept new things as we used to do. Now we're going to make a great renaissance of the Chinese people. What if Bitcoin is really a great technological tool for the future, or if you are in the mainstream, and you shut it down? And the country encourages innovation, and you think that even P2Ps have been encouraged in previous years.

中国虽然不公开支持,但还默认一些交易所的存在。有很多交易所虽然法律注册在国外,但运营大部分都在国内。其实如果想禁止他们交易、甚至连根拔起都很容易,但是要给未来留点机会。

There are many exchanges that are legally registered abroad, but that operate mostly within the country. It is easy to stop them from doing business, or even rooting out them, but it is important to leave some room for the future.

因此现在只是禁止像A股市场这样的集中化撮合交易,但是可以持有比特币财产,个人对个人的交易也是允许的。

So it is now only prohibited to congregate transactions such as the A share market, but it is possible to hold Bitcoin property and individual-to-person transactions are permitted.

记者:那未来彻底放开了去支持的可能性也不大。

Reporter : It's not a big deal to let go of the future.

红桃:目前基本不会,因为比特币本身就是挑战国家的铸币权。未来形势逼人,也有可能会完全放开。

hearts: Not yet, because Bitcoin itself challenges the country’s casting power . In the future, the situation is compelling, and it is likely to be completely liberalized.

记者:对于投资者来说,比特币太不稳定了?

Reporter : Bitcoin is too unstable for investors?

红桃:不稳定是一个很正常的现象。 从宏观的角度来看,这是比特币走向货币的过程必经的阶段。举个例子,想象在一个原始村落,没有通用货币的时候,一开始大家都是用贝壳换麦子等物物交换。第一个人捡到了一块黄金,认为它很美,想作为价值交换,但大家都不接受,就是因为共识比较少。可能会出现这样的情况,有女生看到这么美的黄金,愿意用十只羊来换一块黄金;而另外一个人觉得,一斤肉都不愿换这一块黄金。所以你说它价格波动大吗?很大,因为没有达成共识。

hearts: Instability is a normal phenomenon. From a macro-level perspective, is the stage in which bitcoin moves to currency . It may happen that a girl sees such beautiful gold and wishes to exchange ten sheep for gold, while another person feels that a pound of meat does not want to exchange it. So do you say that it is price-heavy? Because there is no consensus.

从微观上,价格的波动,就是靠买卖双方的博弈来决定的。当某一个突发事件,大家都去卖了,价格自然就会变了。像现在买币的人多或者买币的钱多,价格就涨起来了。

At the micro level, price fluctuations are determined by a game between buyers and sellers. When a given event is sold, the price changes. Prices rise as if there were more or more money to buy.

记者:比特币它其实有上限,也有说法这种上限有可能会被打破?

Reporter : Bitcoin actually has a cap and says that it could be broken?

红桃:按照目前的共识,基本上可能性很小。因为在比特币的世界中,矿工、持币者的利益是跟比特币绑在一起的。如果你是矿工,你会做攻击吗?你持币你还攻击它干啥?理论上当然有可能的,除非政府去做。

hearts: According to the current consensus, there is little possibility. Because in the world of Bitcoin, the interests of miners and money-holders are tied to bitcoin. If you were a miner, would you attack? Why do you attack it with a coin?

05

“现在,跌到1000也有人买”

记者:最近有个调查说比特币是目前排名全球第三的热门交易,为什么涨起来,突然就火了?

Reporter strong: A recent survey says that Bitcoin is currently the third most popular trade in the world.

红桃:也不是突然,其实跟房价一样是货币现象。首先其实它本身是有价值的,大家才去抢它。法币的通货膨胀毁了多少财富?每几年的经济周期,很大一部分原因是央行的通货膨胀造成的。比特币如果能解决这个问题,它的价值就也绝不止现在的价值。

hearts: It is not sudden, but it is a monetary phenomenon, as is the housing price. First, it is worth . The French currency’s inflation destroys how much wealth? A large part of every few years of economic cycles is caused by central bank inflation.

另外涨那么多就是有需求,最近的需求来自于哪?美国今年严重放水,因此华尔街的大风投、资管公司、上市公司都在配置比特币。他们管理的都是百亿、千亿美元的资金,买一点就拉上去了。币圈有个很知名的公司叫“灰度”,他们发行的GBTC,普通投资者都可以购买,类似于ETF,最近涨很多,这也能看出需求。

That's all there is to be needed. What's the latest demand? This year, the U.S. is heavily watered, so Wall Street's big investment, capital companies, and listed companies are all allocated bitcoins. They run $10 billion, hundreds of billions of dollars, and they just pull it up. They have a well-known company in the currency circle called Greyscale, and they issue a GBTC that can be bought by ordinary investors, similar to the ETF, and it's been up a lot, and that also shows demand.

记者:假如明年跌到1000,你还敢买吗?

Reporter Strong: If you fall to 1000 next year, will you buy it?

红桃:第一不可能跌倒1000,第二肯定会买啊。

hearts: The first one can't fall down a thousand, the second one will buy.

记者:为什么不可能,以前跌的时候,大家不是经常觉得觉比特币一分不值了?

Reporter Strong: Why can't it be that when you fell before, people often felt Bitcoin was worthless?

红桃:现在和以前不一样,共识变强了。像2015年是跌到过1000,那个时候真是大家都不敢买,包括币圈那些曾经很强的信仰者也不敢买。但是现在,今年年初跌到3000多美元的时候,很多人都买了。

hearts: Now, unlike before, the strong consensus became stronger . As in 2015, when it fell to 1000, everyone was afraid to buy it, including those who used to have strong faiths. But now, when it fell to over $3,000 earlier this year, a lot of people bought it.

记者:那你怎么看央行发的数字货币?

Reporter strong: What do you think of the central bank's digital currency?

红桃:当然有意义,这不是为了方便大家支付吗。但是也有弊端,就是无现金社会,方便是方便,任何事物都有利有弊。央行数字货币其实就是人民币的数字化,只是形式变了。比特币和数字货币它会共存的。有的东西它不一定好,但它就是能存在,而且还会流行。这不矛盾。

hearts: Of course it makes sense, not to make it easy for everyone to pay. But there are also the disadvantages of having a cash-free society, convenience, and everything that is good and bad. The central bank’s digital currency is actually the renminbi’s digitization, but the form changes. Bitcoin and the digital currency coexists. Some things are not always good, but they exist, and they are popular.

记者:那你说比特币会流行吗?未来20年比特币是什么样?

Reporter strong: Do you think Bitcoin will be popular? What's Bitcoin like in the next 20 years?

红桃:比特币可能会机构化、远离普通投资者。据我了解,比特币也在前进,好多新的技术一直在发展。比如现在比特币希望可以做隐私交易,因为比特币区块链全是公开的,你去转账转多少转给谁都能查到。

hearts: bitcoin may be institutionalized and far away from ordinary investors . As I understand, bitcoin is moving forward, and a lot of new technologies have been developing. For example, now Bitcoin wants to make a private deal, because bitcoin's block chains are all open, so you can find out how much money you transfer to anyone.

我们可以做畅想,如果未来更多公司去买比特币作为他的储备货币的话,甚至国家来进入,比特币就可能取代黄金的一部分属性,就相当于电子黄金。

We can imagine that, if more companies are buying bitcoin as his reserve currency in the future, and even if countries come in, bitcoin could replace some of the properties of gold, which is equivalent to electronic gold.

这样以后可能会涨到想象不到的程度,中本聪(比特币匿名创始人)可能会变成世界首富,他最初挖到的100万枚比特币还没有动过

This could then rise to an unimaginable level, and Benz (the anonymous founder of Bitcoin) might become the richest in the world, and the 1 million bitcoins he initially dug up had not moved

这样很有可能比特币基本跟黄金一样,在社会上不会那么流行,远离人们的生活,只是作为公司甚至国家的储备货币。像现在伊朗就让比特币挖币合法化,但要求境内的矿工必须卖给央行,作为储备货币。

It is likely that bitcoin is not as popular in society as gold, far away from people’s lives, but as a company or even a state’s ‘strong’ reserve currency

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