由 Jake Pahor 编写的加密研究报告被 Foresight News 的 Frank 编译，揭示了尽管比特币已飙升至超过 6 万美元，手中的山寨币为何看似涨幅滞后，以及为何它们仍具有强大的长期投资价值。
The report prepared by encrypted/a> by Frank of Foresight News revealed why the mountain coins in their hands seem to be lagging behind and why they still have a strong long-term value 在牛市启动的初期（第一阶段），比特币往往会率先吸引大量流动性并领涨，随之其市场主导地位提升。此刻，大多数山寨币（但并非全部）的表现通常不及比特币，其实这是健康的市场迹象。 In the early stages of the cattle launch (first phase), Bitcoins tend to be the first to attract large amounts of liquidity and rise, leading to an increase in their market dominance. At this point, most (but not all) of the mountain coins usually perform less than Bitcoins, which is a healthy market sign. 比特币在市场的主导地位越高，预示着未来可能出现持续时间更长的山寨币繁荣期。BTC 的市场主导地位在 2024 年 1 月短暂跌破 20 周移动平均线后已反弹并稳定在 55% 关键阻力位。若能突破此位，则下一阻力位或达 58-60%。随后，BTC 主导地位将达到周期顶峰，并开始回调，而此时风险偏好上升，资金将依次流向 ETH、大盘蓝筹币，最后是山寨币。 The higher the dominance of Bitcoin in the market, the greater the prospect of a longer-term boom in the future. The BTC’s market dominance rebounded and stabilized at 55% of the key resistance after a brief drop in the 20-week moving average in January 2024. If it gets past this position, the next drag will be 58-60%. Then, the BTC’s dominance will reach the peak of the cycle and begin to rewind, and the risk will rise, and the money will flow sequentially to the ETH, the big plate of blue money, and finally to the bounties. 自 2021 年 12 月以来，ETH/BTC 汇率一直呈现长期下跌趋势。虽然今年 1 月曾短暂上穿 20 周移动平均线形成假突破，但现在又回落测试该均线阻力位。若 ETH/BTC 汇率能在此处获得支撑（即 0.05），则意味着以太坊或将转强，并可能预示着市场周期进入第二阶段，同时伴随着现货以太坊 ETF 可能获批的消息。 Since December 2021, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been on a long-term downward trend. Although the 20-week mobile average was briefly worn this January to create a false breakthrough, it is now down to test the same line of resistance. If the ETH/BTC exchange rate is supported here (i.e. 0.05), it means that the Etherm is or will be strengthened, and may signal that the market cycle is entering the second phase, with news that the ETF may be approved in the spot. 自 2022 年起，稳定币市值经历了显著下滑，与加密领域资本流出的熊市特征相符。然而，数据显示，2023 年四季度稳定币市值似已触底反弹，截至 2024 年 2 月，市值增长了 14%。这表明牛市行情与稳定币资金流入密切相关。 Since 2022, there has been a marked decline in the market value of the stable currency, which corresponds to the characteristics of the bear market as a result of capital outflows in the field of encryption. However, the data show that the market value of the stable currency rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2023, and as of February 2024, the market value had increased by 14 per cent. 尽管 TVL 作为滞后指标，但它对于追踪整体趋势仍有参考意义。自 2022 年 6 月以来，DeFi TVL 在 350 至 650 亿美元间震荡，直到 2024 年初出现突破性增长，短短 4 个月内 DeFi TVL 暴增 239% 至 860 亿美元。 Although TVL is a late indicator, it is still useful to track trends as a whole. Since June 2022, DeFi TVL has experienced shocks ranging from 350 to 65 billion dollars, until a breakthrough growth in early 2024, with DeFi TVL surged by 239 to 86 billion dollars in just four months. 场外新散户尚未大规模涌入加密市场，至少目前尚未发现明显迹象。根据 Google 搜索趋势及亲朋好友的反馈，人们对加密货币的兴趣尚未恢复到 2021 年 5 月的历史高点。然而，近期 Coinbase 应用程序因需求激增导致崩溃并迅速提升其在应用商店的排名，显示出散户投资兴趣正在逐步升温。待 Coinbase 再度重回排行榜首之时，市场极可能正处于牛市高潮。 New out-of-the-fields have yet to flood into the encrypted market. At least no clear signs have been found. According to Google trend and close friends' feedback, interest in encrypted money has not returned to its historic height of May 2021.
因此，当前正是加码山寨币并积极备战山寨币狂欢季的最佳时机。请各位投资者保持现状、冷静应对，等待市场牛市巅峰时刻的到来，届时可适时收割利润。
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