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徐鹏飞绘 Xu Peng Fei-Bing |
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东京一家便利店门上贴有可以使用“Edy”、“Suica”、“WAON”等电子货币的说明。 "Edy", "Suica" and "WAON" are posted on the door of a Tokyo convenience store. |
今年以来，比特币以前所未有的规模和速度进入我们的视野，成为很多中国大妈热衷的投资产品。投资比特币风险有多大？是否合法？比特币对现有金融体系带来什么冲击？比特币会取代传统的货币吗？本版从比特币的身世说起，深入分析其前途和影响
Since this year, Bitcoin has entered our horizons at an unprecedented scale and speed, becoming an investment product of many Chinese mothers. How risky is investment in bitcoin? Is it legal? What is the impact of bitcoin on the current financial system? Is Bitcoin going to replace the traditional currency?
比特币一路狂奔，短短3年多便从市值不到14美分飙升到1000美元
Bitcoin ran all the way from a market value of less than 14 cents to $1,000 in just over three years.
比特币进入中国，起初只是年轻人之间的时髦玩意儿。直到2011年，国内媒体对比特币的关注才逐渐增加。人们发现，可以在网上把比特币兑换成人民币，或者直接在部分淘宝网店消费。2013年4月四川芦山地震期间，公益组织“壹基金”收到百余枚比特币捐款，成为比特币在中国发展的一个标志性事件。此后，中国一度超过了比特币的发源地美国，成为交易量最大的国家。
Bitcoin entered China, initially as a fashionable young man. It was only in 2011 that the domestic media’s attention increased.
比特币这一概念诞生于2008年，是由刻意隐藏真实身份并化名为中本聪的神秘人士设计的一种数字货币。所谓“挖”比特币，就是依据特定算法，通过大量的计算产生出该货币。2009年和2010年初，比特币在市场上价值很低。2010年夏天，受到虚拟市场的牵引，比特币供不应求，网上交易市场的价格开始变动。2011年1月，比特币在87美分的基础上突破1美元，达到了1.06美元。此后，随着《福布斯》杂志上刊登关于这个新的“神秘货币”的报道，比特币的价格在一定程度上受到了催化，开始步上爆发性上涨之旅。
The concept of bitcoin was born in 2008 as a digital currency designed by a mysterious person who deliberately hides the true identity and calls it a medium-breathing. The so-called “draw” bitcoin was generated by a number of calculations based on a particular algorithm. In 2009 and early 2010, bitcoin was of low value on the market. In the summer of 2010, the price of Bitcoin began to change in the online trading market, prompted by the virtual market, the supply of bitcoin was in short supply. In January 2011, Bitcoin broke one dollar on a 87-cent basis, reaching $1.06.
进入2013年，比特币在美国被越来越多的人所追逐，这一热潮也逐渐向全球转移。人们基于各种各样的目的，投入到比特币的挖掘和交易中，其中有无政府主义崇拜者、技术和网络狂人，更有虚拟货币和新金融模式的探索者，以及各式各样怀有暴富梦想的人。今年11月初，比特币兑换美元的交易价格达到200美元左右。在美国参议院11月下旬就这一虚拟货币召开专门听证会后，比特币交易价格一度突破了900美元关口，直至11月27日突破1000美元大关。
In 2013, Bitcoin was pursued by a growing number of people in the United States, and the tide is shifting towards the world as well. For a variety of purposes, people are engaged in bitcoin excavations and transactions, including anarchists, technocrats, explorers of virtual money and new financial models, and all sorts of people with wildly rich dreams.
比特币与其他虚拟货币最大的不同，是其总数有限，具有极强的稀缺性
The biggest difference between bitcoin and other virtual currencies is its limited total and extremely scarceness
比特币是信息技术变革引起的电子货币过渡到高级阶段的初始形式。电子货币是指以计算机或其他存储设备为存在介质、以数据或卡片形式履行货币支付流通职能的“货币符号”，其具体形式包括卡基、数基存款货币、电子票据等等。根据其支付范围、方式和流动性的差异，结合中国支付体系运行的实际情况，我们认为应将电子货币分为3类：
Bitcoin is the initial form of the transition from an advanced stage to an electronic currency caused by a change in information technology. Electronic currency means a “currency symbol” in which a computer or other storage device has a medium, or in which money is paid for in the form of data or cards, in the form of card-based, digit-based deposit money, electronic instruments, etc. Depending on the difference in the scope, mode of payment and liquidity of the payments, we believe that electronic currency should be classified into three categories, taking into account the fact that the payment system operates in China:
第一，以存款形式存在的电子货币。主要包括：活期存款和活期储蓄；证券、期货的交易保证金；支付机构在商业银行备付多账户的客户备付金。第二，单用途预付卡，即从事零售业、住宿和餐饮业、居民服务业的企业法人发行的，“仅限于在本企业或本企业所属集团或同一品牌特许经营体系内兑付货物或服务的预付凭证，包括以磁条卡、芯片卡、纸券等为载体的实体卡和以密码、串码、图形、生物特征信息等为载体的虚拟卡”。第三，虚拟货币。根据使用虚拟货币交易对手方的不同，可以将虚拟货币具体区分为支付给虚拟货币发行方的虚拟货币、支付给其他普通参与者的虚拟货币。前者在交易后整个系统中会等额减少，而后者可以多次反复进行支付。
First, there is an electronic currency in the form of deposits. Mainly, there are: call deposits and call deposits; securities, futures trading bonds; payment agencies make multi-account payments to customers in commercial banks. Second, a single-use prepaid card, issued by a corporate entity engaged in retailing, accommodation and catering, residential services, “only prepaid certificates of goods or services in the enterprise or group to which the enterprise belongs or in the same brand concession system, including physical cards in magnet cards, chip cards, paper vouchers, etc., and virtual cards in passwords, serial numbers, graphics, biometrics, etc.” Third, virtual currency. Depending on the counterpart of a virtual currency transaction, the virtual currency can be specifically distinguished from the virtual currency paid to the issuer of a virtual currency, to other ordinary participants, etc. The former will be reduced in the entire system after the transaction, while the latter may be repeatedly paid.
比特币与其他虚拟货币最大的不同，是其总数有限，具有极强的稀缺性。该货币系统曾在4年内只有不超过1050万个，之后的总数将被限制在2100万个。此外，与大多数货币不同，比特币不依赖于特定的中央发行机构，而是使用遍布整个P2P网络节点的分布式数据库来记录货币的交易，并使用密码学的设计来确保货币流通各个环节安全性。例如，比特币只能被它的真实拥有者使用，而且仅仅一次，支付完成之后，原主人即失去对该份额比特币的所有权。
The biggest difference between Bitcoin and other virtual currencies is that its totals are limited and extremely scarce. The monetary system did not exceed 10.5 million in four years, after which the total would be limited to 21 million. Moreover, unlike most currencies, Bitcoins did not rely on a particular central issuer, but rather used distributed databases spread over the entire P2P network node to record currency transactions, using cryptography designs to ensure the security of the money flow chain. For example, Bitcoins could only be used by its true owners, and once payments were completed, the original owner lost ownership of the share of Bitcoins.
面对比特币的诱惑，很多人都相信，自己不会是“击鼓传花”的最后一环
In the face of Bitcoin's temptation, a lot of people believe they're not the last ring to beat flowers.
比特币之所以火爆，需要从供给与需求两方面来看。一方面，作为在数学理念框架下产生的虚拟货币，比特币的总量不会增加，使其与现实货币经常陷入通货膨胀的情况形成鲜明对比。如果比特币能够长期存在，在其需求增长的情况下，那么其价格则会持续上升。另一方面，从需求角度来看，必须承认一部分是真实货币需求的作用，因为随着对比特币“去中心化”的膜拜，越来越多的社区与网友开始接受比特币，他们认为比特币是传统货币的有效替代品，是挑战旧的货币体系的重大革新，因此热衷于运用比特币进行货币功能的试验。但是，更多的需求者却基于投资或投机的需要，只是把比特币看作是某种可快速升值的资产。
On the one hand, the amount of bitcoin, a virtual currency generated in the framework of mathematics, does not increase in sharp contrast to the fact that real currency is often inflamed into inflation. If bitcoin can be long-term and its demand increases, its prices will continue to rise. On the other hand, from a demand perspective, it must be recognized that part of it is real money demand, because, as Bitcoin’s “centralization” worship begins to grow, more and more communities and netizens accept bitcoin, which they consider to be an effective substitute for traditional currencies and a major innovation challenging the old monetary system, and are therefore keen to experiment with bitcoins for monetary functions.
比特币在中国比在国外更受欢迎的原因主要基于两方面。一则，国人的投机性远高于外国人，这在股市、房市、大宗商品、农产品乃至艺术品的炒作中可见一斑。面对比特币的诱惑，自然会有更多的投机者奔赴其中，相信自己不会是“击鼓传花”的最后一环。二则，近年来国内的民间资本与财富迅速积累，而可投资的金融资产和非金融资产却很有限，股市和房市的现状，使得个人财富可配置资产更加可怜。比特币为民间投资提供了一个跨国界的交易对象，因此也吸收了大量的民间资本追逐。
The reason that Bitcoin is more popular in China than abroad is based mainly on two factors. One is that national speculation is much higher than foreign speculation, as can be seen in the campaigning of stock markets, housing markets, bulk commodities, agricultural products, and even works of art.
无法成为真正的信用货币，难以撼动传统金融体系
比特币虽然在一定范围内具有货币替代职能，但是离现代货币的标准还很远。货币是用作交换媒介、价值尺度、支付手段、价值储藏的物品。就此看，当前比特币的作用更多体现在交换和投资方面，在最体现货币价值的支付方面的作用非常有限。同时，比特币的数量被固定在2100万个，使其无法成为真正的信用货币，也不能发挥货币扩张在经济发展中的基本职能，难以真正撼动传统金融体系。此外，由于今年以来比特币的价格经常暴涨暴跌，越来越难以作为稳定的交易支付中介，更加损害了其货币属性。 Bitcoin is a currency that is used as a medium of exchange, a measure of value, a means of payment, and a deposit of value. As a result, the role of bitcoin is now more evident in exchange and investment, with a very limited role in the payment of the most monetary value.
无论是纸币还是电子货币，都属于信用货币的范畴，与金属货币不同的是，其自身并没有使用价值。这些货币的背后依托的是特定的社会组织关系与政权组织形式。只要国家的边界没有消失，还需政府的权威支撑社会交易，“最后贷款人”的央行仍然存在，真正去中心化的虚拟货币就不可能占据主流地位。比特币充其量只能成为某个互联网“飞地”或“乌托邦”式的实验品。 As long as the country’s borders do not disappear, the central bank of the “final lender” still exists, and a truly decentralized virtual currency cannot dominate. Bitcoin can at best become an Internet “flying land” or a “Utopia” experiment.
总而言之，当比特币成为互联网技术狂热者、投机分子以及无政府主义狂欢的对象时，它却距离货币的内在属性越来越远。比特币在2140年左右达到2100万个总量限制之前，或许它早已被其他虚拟货币所替代。 In short, when Bitcoin became the target of Internet technocrats, speculators, and anarchists, it moved further and further away from the intrinsic properties of the currency. Bitcoin was perhaps replaced by other virtual currencies before it reached 21 million aggregate limits around 2140.
已遭到多国央行“封杀”，在一定时期内的主流发展空间被封闭
比特币的出现也伴随着特定风险。例如，2013年6月，美国在线支付服务Liberty Reserve因涉嫌从事大规模在线洗钱交易被关闭，这引发了比特币可能会被犯罪分子当作洗钱工具的担忧。当然，由于规模有限、币值不稳定，这种潜在的风险相对有限。到目前为止，各国监管部门普遍关注比特币交易的合规性、合法性，并且重点监控洗钱、贩毒中的比特币使用问题。美国已有将比特币等虚拟货币纳入货币整体监管机制的呼声。 For example, in June 2013, the United States online payment service, Liberty , was shut down for suspected large-scale online money-laundering transactions, raising concerns that bitcoins might be used by criminals as a money-laundering tool. Of course, this potential risk is relatively limited because of their limited size and unstable value.
12月5日，中国人民银行等5部委联合发布公告《关于防范比特币风险的通知》，其根源还是考虑到潜在风险问题。央行强调，比特币有几方面相关风险。一是较高的投机风险。比特币交易市场容量较小，交易24小时连续开放，没有涨跌幅限制，价格容易被投机分子控制，产生剧烈波动，风险极大。普通投资者盲目跟风容易遭受重大损失。同时，比特币的相关交易市场仍处于自发状态，可能存在交易对手方风险、资金安全风险和清算结算环节的风险等，投资者合法权益难以得到有效保障。二是较高的洗钱风险。由于比特币交易具有匿名性和不受地域限制的特点，其资金流向难以监测，为洗钱和恐怖融资活动提供了便利。三是被违法犯罪分子或组织利用的风险。目前，国际上已经出现了利用比特币进行的毒品、枪支交易等犯罪活动，相关案件已经被查处。同时，各比特币交易网站的状况参差不齐，一些网站没有经过合法注册，涉嫌非法经营；一些网站安全防范和抗风险能力差，容易发生黑客攻击或网站经营者卷款潜逃等事件。 On 5 December, the People’s Bank of China and five other ministries issued a joint bulletin, the Notice on Protection against Bitcoin Risks, with its root causes still taking into account potential risks. The Central Bank stressed that Bitcoin had several related risks. First, there was a high risk of speculation.
12月16日支付宝、几大银行、财付通等相关负责人被央行约谈，明确要求银行、支付机构不能给比特币、莱特币等交易网站提供支付与清算服务。对于已发生业务的支付机构，应解除商务合作；对于存量款项，可在春节前完成提现，不得发生新的支付业务。此前，比特币已遭到法国、泰国、挪威等多国央行“封杀”，无法获得合法货币地位。可以预见，比特币在一定时期内的主流发展空间已经被封闭。 On December 16, the bank responsible for the payment of treasures, several large banks, and treasury payments were interviewed by the central bank and explicitly requested that banks and payment agencies should not provide payment and liquidation services to trading websites such as Bitcoin and Lightcoin. Commercial cooperation should be lifted for payment agencies that have already done business; for stock, no new payment should take place before spring. Prior to that, Bitcoin had been “enclosed” by multinational central banks such as France, Thailand, and Norway, and could not obtain legal monetary status.
（作者为中国社科院金融所所长助理、研究员） (author is Assistant, Researcher, Director of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
《 人民日报 》（ 2013年12月25日 23 版） People's Daily (23rd edition, 25 December 2013)
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