华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 赵奕 胡金华 上海报道
Reporter of the Summer Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn)
2023年，AI大模型的热浪浇到元宇宙头上便变成了一盆冷水。今年以来，曾经吸引无数企业竞折腰的元宇宙，已有多家头部企业与其“划清界限”。
In 2023, the heat waves of the big AI model poured over the meta-cosmos and turned them into cold water. Since this year, the meta-cosm, which has attracted numerous companies to compete, has been “drawn apart” by many head companies.
10月25日，有消息称，微软（Microsoft）负责开发基于人工智能的无人机模拟软件Project Airsim团队被告知公司将解雇整个团队并终止项目。随后，微软方面也证实，将于今年12月15日终止该项目。
On 25 October, it was reported that Microsoft’s team, which was responsible for developing an artificial intelligence-based drone simulation software, had been informed that the company would fire the entire team and terminate the project. Subsequently, Microsoft also confirmed that it would terminate the project on 15 December this year.
在此之前，微软于10月19日正式停止了对Project Bonsai项目的支持，该项目用于构建工业用途的自动化系统。上述两个项目都被认为是微软“工业元宇宙”的重要组成部分。
Prior to that, Microsoft officially suspended its support for the Project Bonsai project on 19 October, which was used to build automated systems for industrial purposes. Both projects were considered to be important components of Microsoft's “Industrial space”.
“当下的元宇宙除了游戏外，目前还没有找到合适的应用场景。”商业专家产业空间研究院主任潮成林向《华夏时报》记者表示，元宇宙如何将数据流、信息流和商业流达成有效的商业转化方式是必须面对的问题，什么时候能够让人类现实生活的场景与虚拟世界形成新的社会机制和商业模式，元宇宙才能真正得到发展。
“The current metacosystem has not yet found a suitable application except for the game.” The Director of the Institute of Industrial Space Research, a business expert, Xiaoling, told the reporter of the Summer Times that how the metacosystem can achieve an effective commercial transformation of data flow, information flow and business flow is an issue that must be faced and that when the scene of human reality and the virtual world can be transformed into a new social mechanism and business model, the metacocosystem can be truly developed.
微软又关了一个元宇宙项目
Microsoft closed another meta-cosm project
据悉，Project Airsim和Project Bonsai这两个项目都是由微软首席技术官凯文?斯科特 (Kevin Scott) 推动成立的，孵化这两个项目的目的在于让工业客户使用微软云业务的新产品。
Both Project Airsim and Project Bonsai are known to have been created with the support of Microsoft Chief Technical Officer Kevin Scott to enable industrial clients to use new products from Microsoft Cloud operations.
2022年底，微软官宣其关于工业元宇宙的愿景，让人出乎意料的是，今年春季微软就终止了Project Bonsai，并裁掉了负责项目的100人团队，此时距离微软组建该团队不过几个月的时间。
At the end of 2022, Microsoft announced its vision of the industrial-dollar universe, surprisingly, this spring Microsoft terminated Project Bonsai and cut off the 100-person team in charge of the project, just a few months before Microsoft formed the team.
此外，今年1月，微软CEO萨提亚·纳德拉发布全员信，确认微软将在三个月内裁员1万人，约占微软22万名员工总数的4.5%。而本次裁员重点集中在虚拟现实相关部门，包括混合现实硬件HoloLens、混合现实（MR）部门、AltSpaceVR、Surface设备和Xbox在内，都大幅调整核心架构。
In addition, in January of this year, Microsoft, CEO Satya Nadra, issued a full-time letter confirming that Microsoft would downsize 10,000 people within three months, accounting for about 4.5% of Microsoft’s total workforce of 220,000. The current staff reduction focused on virtual reality-related sectors, including the hybrid hardware Holollens, the hybrid reality department, AltSpaceVR, Surface, and Xbox, all significantly fine-tuning the core structure.
与微软相比，“All in”元宇宙的Meta则更加惨淡。其近日公布的2023财年第二季度财报显示，公司第二季度营收利润都实现了正增长，但负责元宇宙业务的部门Reality Labs亏损37.39亿美元，较上年同期扩大33%。而事实上，自2020年第四季度以来，该部门已亏损约337亿美元（约合人民币2407亿元）。
Compared to Microsoft, the “All in” meta-cosm is even worse. Its recent financial statements for the second quarter of the 2023 fiscal year show positive growth in corporate profits in the second quarter, but the department responsible for the meta-cosm business, Reality Labs, lost $3.739 billion, an increase of 33% over the same period the previous year.
Meta首席财务官Susan Li坦言，预计2024年亏损会同比增加，但在业务发展方面，公司的雄心没有变化，公司有一个长期的时间跨度来评估在这方面的投资回报。
The Chief Financial Officer of Meta, Susan Li, confessed that, while losses were expected to increase in 2024, there was no change in corporate ambition in business development and the company had a long time span to assess the return on investment in this area.
尽管投入如此之大，Meta的元宇宙产品依旧无人问津。Meta报告称，截至目前，其元宇宙应用Horizon Worlds 已经建立1万个独立世界，但只有9%的独立世界有超过50人访问，大多数世界根本无人问津。不少用户进入Meta推出的Horizon Worlds虚拟世界后发现，目前元宇宙与想象中的元宇宙千差万别，首次体验感到失望后就再也没有登录过。
Despite this huge investment, Meta’s meta-cosm products remain unattractive. Meta reports that, to date, its meta-cosmos application has established 10,000 independent worlds, but only 9% of them have been visited by more than 50 people, and most of the world is completely unattended. Many users have entered the Horizon Worlds virtual world that Meta has launched, finding that the current meta-cosm is very different from the imaginary meta-cosm, and that they have never been recorded since their first experience.
此外，其公开售价1500美元的全新高端VR头显设备Quest Pro，仅仅三个月就因滞销而降价400美金。
In addition, its brand-new high-end VR head display equipment, valued at $1,500, Quest Pro, was reduced by $400 for three months only as a result of the delay.
在财报后的电话会议中，扎克伯格也多次提到与AI相关的机会。在此前他曾表态称，Meta不会错过如今的AI浪潮，同时还会继续投资元宇宙相关业务，并专注AI和元宇宙的结合。
Zuckerberg also mentioned opportunities related to AI on several occasions in a post-fiscal teleconference. He had previously stated that Meta would not miss the current wave of AI, but would also continue to invest in meta-cosmos-related business and focus on the integration of AI and meta-cosmos.
Meta的股东对此显然并不满意。2022年10月，Meta的股东投资及私募机构Altimeter Capital的主席Brad Gerstner曾公开致函称，应将“元宇宙”相关技术（即VR硬件和软件）的投入限制在每年最高50亿美元。
In October 2022, Brad Gerstner, the chairman of Meta’s shareholder investment and private fund-raising agency Altimeter Capital, wrote publicly that investment in metacosystem-related technologies (i.e. VR hardware and software) should be limited to a maximum of $5 billion per year.
Brad认为：“公司目前对VR的投入规模可能需要持续10年，才能看到回报；然而对一个并不确切的未来项目投入总共超过1000亿美元是很恐怖的，即便以硅谷的标准来看都是如此。”
According to Brad, “the current size of the company's investment in VR may take 10 years to see the return; however, it is terrible to invest a total of more than $100 billion in an uncertain future project, even by Silicon Valley standards”.
在股价方面，自2021年9月以来，Meta股价从384.33美元的历史高点一路向下。2022年全年，Meta股价跌幅达到64%，在美国大型科技企业里表现最差的。值得关注的是，Meta从去年11月以来，已连续进行了多轮裁员。财报显示，截至今年二季度末，Meta总员工人数同比下降14%，为71469人。
In terms of share prices, Meta’s share price has been down since September 2021, from an historic high of $384.33. In 2022, Meta’s share price fell by 64 per cent, the worst performer in large technology firms in the United States. It is interesting to note that Meta has been retrenched several times since last November. The treasury shows that, by the end of the second quarter of this year, the total number of Meta employees had fallen by 14 per cent, to 71,469.
对此，深度科技研究院院长张孝荣向《华夏时报》记者表示，元宇宙热度降温或是由于其发展速度没有达到市场预期，一些大厂在投入大量资源后发现回报并不明显，这也反映出元宇宙的发展仍面临许多挑战，包括技术、市场接受度等。此外，元宇宙的发展需要大量的技术支持，包括人工智能、虚拟现实等，这些技术目前仍处于发展阶段，尚未完全成熟。因此，元宇宙成为科技大厂裁员的“第一刀”。
In response, the Director of the Institute of Deep Science and Technology, Zhang Xiaoyong, told the reporter of the Summer Times that the cooling of the heat in the Woncosmos, or because its pace of development did not meet market expectations, did not yield significant returns, reflecting the many challenges that were still facing the development of the Yuan cosmos, including technology, market acceptance, etc. Moreover, the development of the Yuan cosmos required a great deal of technical support, including artificial intelligence, virtual reality, which is still in its development stage and is not yet fully mature.
元宇宙已死？
与此同时，国内科技巨头的元宇宙项目也在面对重重困难。
At the same time, the meta-cosm projects of the national technology giants are facing difficulties.
近日来，针对“PICO近半员工离开，多名高管离职调岗”的消息备受关注。尽管PICO相关负责人回复称，公司保持产品正常运营，并持续加强在产品技术方面的投入。但今年以来，PICO曾多次传出员工及高管离职的消息，让市场不免为其捏一把汗。
In recent days, attention has been drawn to the news of “the departure of nearly half of PICO’s staff, and the departure of a number of executives.” Although PICO officials have responded that the company keeps its products running properly, and continues to strengthen its investment in product technology.
PICO的窘境或与 VR产品的销量不尽如人意相关。IDC中国发布的数据显示，2023年第二季度全球AR/VR头显出货量连续第四季度下降，出货量同比下降44.6%，出货量前五分别是Meta（50.2%）、索尼（1%）、字节跳动PICO（9.6%）、Xreal（略高于2%）和大朋VR（略高于2%）。
According to data published by IDC China, the volume of global AR/VR head exports declined in the fourth consecutive quarter of 2023, by 44.6 per cent over the same period, with the top five being Meta (50.2 per cent), Sony (1 per cent), byte PICO (9.6 per cent), Xreal (slightly over 2 per cent) and Gran Pin VR (slightly over 2 per cent).
另根据维深信息wellsenn XR的调研和跟踪统计，2023年二季度全球VR销量为144万台，同比下降37%，环比下降21%。其中国内市场VR头显销量为12万台，同比下滑65%；海外市场VR头显销量为132万台，同比下滑33%；国内市场VR头显C端销量为7万台，同比下滑75%，B端销量5万台，同比下滑6%；海外市场C端销量121万台，同比下降35%，B端销量11万台，同比增长5%。
According to the research and follow-up on VR sales in the second quarter of 2023, the global volume of VR sales was 1.44 million, a decline of 37 per cent and a decline of 21 per cent. Of these, VR head sales in the domestic market were 120,000, a decline of 65 per cent; VR head sales in the overseas market were 1.32 million, a decline of 33 per cent; VR head head C sales in the domestic market were 70,000, a decline of 75 per cent, while B end sales were 50,000, a decline of 6 per cent; and C end sales in the overseas market were 1.21 million, a decline of 35 per cent and B end sales, an increase of 5 per cent.
针对VR发展不如预期的情况，独立经济学家王赤坤向《华夏时报》记者表示，VR技术在过去几年取得了一定的进展，但仍存在一些技术限制。例如，VR设备的价格较高，对用户的使用体验有一定的限制；VR设备的体积较大，不够便携；同时，VR内容的开发和创新也面临一定的挑战。VR内容的开发和创新是推动VR产业发展的重要因素。然而，目前VR内容的数量和质量还不够丰富和高水平，这也限制了用户对VR的吸引力和使用体验。
In response to the underdevelopment of VR, independent economist Wang Chi Kwan said to the Washington Times journalists that VR technology has made some progress over the past few years, but that there are still some technical constraints. For example, VR equipment is expensive and has limited user experience; VR equipment is large enough to be portable; and VR content development and innovation are some of the challenges. VR content development and innovation are important factors for the development of the VR industry.
除PICO外，字节跳动此前已经关停元宇宙社交APP“派对岛”。今年3月，百度副总裁、“希壤”元宇宙产品负责人马杰宣布离职，转入大模型领域担任“零一万物”高管。2月16日，腾讯对外宣布，腾讯游戏XR业务将变更硬件发展路径，并对相关业务团队进行调整。而后，腾讯数藏平台“幻核”也被裁撤。而早在2022年8月，阿里巴巴达摩院XR（扩展现实）实验室负责人谭平便宣布离职。
With the exception of PICO, the byte beats the PHP “party island” that had previously shut down the meta-cosmos. In March this year, the 100-year Vice-President and head of the “Sykyo” dollar cosmopolitan product, Maji, announced his resignation and his transfer to the large model area as the “One Everything” executive. On February 16, the public announced that the tether game XR operation would change the hardware development path and make adjustments to the related business team.
此外，元宇宙企业投融资方面也不容乐观。DappRadar的一份报告显示，2023年上半年，全球元宇宙项目融资总额只有区区7亿美元，不足去年全年的十分之一。“元宇宙已死”的言论一时间甚嚣尘上。
A report by DappRadar shows that, in the first half of 2023, only $700 million was spent on global meta-cosm projects, less than one-tenth of last year’s total. The rhetoric of “the meta-cosmos is dead” has been rife.
对此，中国民协元宇宙工委副会长兼创会秘书长吴高斌向《华夏时报》记者表示，元宇宙作为一个新兴概念，曾被寄予厚望。然而，随着时间的推移，人们逐渐发现元宇宙的发展并非一帆风顺。其复杂性和技术难度使得元宇宙项目的研发和运营成本高昂，而收益却难以立即显现。对于大厂来说，裁员元宇宙部门成为减少成本的一种方式。
In response, U Gaubin, Vice-President and Secretary-General of the China-China Senate Space Commission, stated to the Washington Times that the Woncosm, as an emerging concept, had been placed in high hopes. Over time, however, it has become apparent that the development of the Woncosmos has not been easy. Its complexity and technical difficulties have made the development and operation of the metacos project costly, while the benefits are not immediately apparent.
“巨头企业的加入曾一度让人对元宇宙的发展充满期待。它们投入大量资源和资金，试图推动元宇宙的发展。然而，现实却告诉我们，元宇宙的发展并非一蹴而就。技术和商业模式的探索需要时间和实践，而巨头企业的离场则可能是对于元宇宙前景的重新评估。”吴高斌说。
But reality tells us that the development of the metacosystem does not happen overnight. The exploration of technology and business models takes time and practice, and the departure of the giant enterprise may be a reassessment of the horizon of the metacocos.
但在吴高斌看来，尽管存在问题，元宇宙仍然具备巨大的潜力。“我们可以期待，随着技术的进步和商业模式的成熟，元宇宙将逐渐迎来更好的发展。”吴高斌说。
But, in Goobin’s view, despite the problems, there is great potential. “We can expect that, as technology advances and business models mature, it will gradually develop better.” Wu Goobin says.
责任编辑：徐芸茜 主编：公培佳
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