“人在币圈混，三天饿九顿。”这句调侃正在虚拟货币投资圈应验。
"The man is mixed up in the currency, he's hungry nine times for three days." This tone is responding to the virtual currency investment circle.
北京时间4月2日上午，虚拟货币市场突然闪崩，比特币价格一度跌破66000美元整数关口，跌幅超过6%。以太坊价格一度跌破3400美元，跌幅超7%。
On the morning of April 2, Beijing time, the virtual currency market suddenly collapsed, and bitcoin prices fell by more than 6% at a point of $66,000 in its entirety. At a time, the price fell by more than 3,400 dollars, or by more than 7%.
市场普遍认为，比特币现货ETF资金流入放缓、即将到来的“减半”事件是比特币过去几天价格走势低迷的主要原因。
The market is generally of the view that the slowdown in the inflow of spot ETF funds in Bitcoin and the impending “50-per-cent” event are the main reasons for the downward trend in Bitcoin's prices over the past few days.
比特币闪崩
{\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Bitcoin {\cHFFFFFF}{\cH00FFFF} {\bord0\shad0\alphaH3D}Strange
北京时间4月2日上午10时35分起，比特币遭遇大规模抛售，价格迅速走低，10分钟内接连跌破67000美元和66000美元两道整数关口。与此同时，虚拟货币市场其他币种均“一泻千里”。以太坊24小时跌幅超7%，狗狗币24小时跌幅达11.3%。截至发稿前，比特币价格暂报66990美元。
From 10.35 a.m. Beijing time on 2 April, Bitcoin was sold on a massive scale, with prices falling rapidly, breaking back and forth by $67,000 and $66,000 in 10 minutes. At the same time, the other currencies of the virtual currency market were “one thousand miles.” The 24-hour drop in Taiyo was over 7%, and the 24-hour drop in dog money was 11.3%.
图片来源：HTX
Photo source: HTX
有投资者在社交媒体感慨：“钱比水蒸发得都快。”
There are investors in the social media who feel: "Money evaporates faster than water."
CoinGecko数据显示，目前虚拟货币总市值为2.53万亿美元，较本周最高点2.78万亿美元，蒸发2500亿美元（约合人民币18085亿元）。
CoinGecko data show that the total market value of the virtual currency is currently $2.53 trillion, up from $2.78 trillion this week, evaporating $250 billion (approximately $18.85 billion).
衍生品交易方面，CoinGlass数据显示，最近24个小时内，虚拟货币市场共有15.3万人爆仓，爆仓总金额为4.74亿美元（约合34亿元人民币）。
With regard to derivatives transactions, CoinGlass data show that in the last 24 hours, the virtual currency market has exploded with a total of 153,000 people and a total of $474 million (approximately RMB 3.4 billion).
图片来源：CoinGlass
Photo source: CoinGlass
对于比特币的突然下跌，OKX研究院高级研究员赵伟对
记者表示，目前比特币现货ETF资金的净流入情况，成为影响比特币乃至整个虚拟市场走势的重要因素。据HODL15Capital监测，4月1日比特币现货ETF净流出8800万美元，其中GBTC净流出3.03亿美元。此外，受美国制造业数据影响，美元指数的陡升以及美联储6月降息概率下调也增加了虚拟货币市场走势的不确定性，致使投资者对市场走势的高预期有所降温。
In response to the sudden fall in Bitcoin, journalist Zhao Wei, a senior researcher at the OKX Institute, said that the current net inflow of currency current ETF funds was an important factor affecting the movement of Bitcoin and even the virtual market as a whole. According to HODL15Capital, on 1 April, the currency current ETF had a net outflow of $88 million, of which GBTC had a net outflow of $303 million. Moreover, the sharp rise in the United States dollar index and the US Federal Reserve's June reduction probability also increased uncertainty about the position of the virtual currency market, causing investors to cool their expectations of market performance.
事实上，比特币近期已多次上演“大起大落”行情。例如，北京时间3月14日，比特币价格一度飙升至73000美元上方，连续四天刷新历史新高。但到了3月15日，比特币价格却跌破66000美元至一周低位。从日内情况来看，比特币价格波动幅度也很大，往往达到数千美元。
In fact, Bitcoin has recently shown a number of “big bangs.” For example, on March 14, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin rose sharply above $73,000, refreshing its history for four days.
业内人士表示，比特币跌破70000美元整数关口之后，虚拟货币市场整体的波动率和风险溢价均有所上升，反映出市场存在一定数量的短期恐慌盘。
According to industry sources, the overall volatility and risk premium in the virtual currency market rose after Bitcoin fell at a full point of $70,000, reflecting a certain amount of short-term panic in the market.
重要“减半”事件临近
本月即将发生虚拟货币市场的重磅事件——比特币“减半”，备受投资者关注，因为这将直接关系到比特币的供求关系。
This month, the heavy weight of the virtual currency market — the “half-half” of Bitcoin — is of interest to investors, as it will have a direct bearing on the supply and demand of Bitcoin.
比特币“减半”事件，是指产出新区块后所获得的奖励减半，大约每四年发生一次。具体时间取决于比特币网络的区块生成速度，这将减少比特币的供应量。区块奖励减半，意味着所有比特币进入市面流通所需的时间更长。
The “50-per-cent” of the Bitcoin event means that the incentives obtained after the production of the new blocks are halved, approximately every four years. The timing depends on the speed with which the bitcoins network is generated, which reduces the supply of bitcoins.
据BTC.com显示，当前区块高度距离比特币“减半”时间剩余已不足20天。下一次比特币“减半”预计发生在4月区块高度达到840000之时，届时区块奖励将从6.25个比特币降至3.125个比特币。
According to BTC.com, the current block is less than 20 days away from the “half by half” of Bitcoin. The next “half” of Bitcoin is expected to take place when the block reaches 840,000 in April, when the block incentive will be reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins.
加密货币交易员、独立分析师Rekt Capital表示，“减半”事件发生前，比特币价格将持续回调。在2016年和2020年“减半”周期中，比特币分别下跌了38%和20%。
The encrypt currency dealer, Rekt Capital, an independent analyst, said that bitcoin prices would continue to rebound before the “50-per-cent” event. In the “50-per-cent” cycle in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoins fell by 38% and 20%, respectively.
近期，摩根大通的一份报告指出，比特币“减半”事件在4月份到来，这可能会对比特币矿工的盈利能力产生严重的负面影响。报告警告称，比特币的价格可能会因此暴跌至42000美元/枚，较目前价格的潜在下跌空间超36%。
A recent report by Morgan Chase states that the “half-per-cent” of Bitcoin may have a serious negative impact on the profitability of the miners in April. The report warns that the price of Bitcoin could drop sharply to $42,000, more than 36 per cent of the potential decline in current prices.
多家机构提示波动风险
multi-agency exposure to volatility
尽管虚拟货币市场近期热潮涌动，但有多家研究机构提示交易风险。
Despite the recent surge in virtual money markets, there are several research institutions that point to trading risks.
美国公募基金公司Vanguard首席执行官Tim Buckley近日表示，虚拟货币是一种投机资产，不适合长期投资，并且与Vanguard的投资模式不相符。比特币波动性太大，且不是一种价值储存手段，当美股近期遭受重创时，比特币也随之下跌。
The US Public Fund company Vanguard’s Chief Executive Officer, Tim Buckley, has recently stated that virtual currency is a speculative asset that is not suitable for long-term investment and does not match Vanguard’s investment model. Bitcoin is too volatile and not a value-storage tool, and it falls when the US dollar is hit hard in the recent past.
“虚拟货币是一种不稳定的资产，以往在价格连续上涨之前曾出现过20%—30%的缩水。建议交易者谨慎使用杠杆，因为价格的双向波动都可能导致清算。”CoinSwitch Ventures投资主管Parth Chaturvedi表示。
“A virtual currency is an unstable asset, which in the past experienced a 20-30% contraction prior to successive price increases. Dealers are advised to use leverage prudently, because price two-way fluctuations can lead to liquidation.” CoinSwitch Ventures Investment Manager Parth Chaturvedi states.
中信证券表示，参照历史，比特币“减半”前后，仍存上涨趋势，但东亚与北美利差的利多因素预计在美联储降息开始后消退。虚拟货币市场目前上行动能不足，后市震荡幅度预计仍然较大。
Sino-Portuguese securities indicate that, by historical background, there is still an upward trend before and after the “half” of Bitcoin, but the profit margin between East Asia and North America is expected to fade when the Fed starts to lower interest rates. Virtual currency markets are currently under-motivated, and post-market shocks are expected to remain large.
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