突发？！比特币大跳 水？牛市结束了？ 比特币价格自昨天达到71，231美元的峰值以来已下跌4.7%，目前徘徊在66，967美元左右。这种下降标志着在几个关键因...
资讯 2024-07-03 阅读:42 评论:0
比特币价格自昨天达到71，231美元的峰值以来已下跌4.7%，目前徘徊在66，967美元左右。这种下降标志着在几个关键因素的推动下，市场波动性显着回归。
Bitcoin prices have fallen by 4.7 per cent since their peak of $71,231 yesterday, and are currently hovering around $66,967. This decline marks a significant return to market volatility driven by several key factors.
1，美联储对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议的预期
1, Fed expectations for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings
在明天6月12日星期三的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之前，比特币市场似乎处于避险模式。市场对宏观经济指标的敏感性充分显现，利益相关者正等待美联储的利率决定及其经济预测。
By tomorrow, Wednesday, 12 June, before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Bitcoin market appears to be in a risky mode. The market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators has become fully apparent, and stakeholders are waiting for the Fed’s interest rate decisions and its economic forecasts.
目前的预期表明，美联储将把利率维持在5.25%-5.50%的区间，但市场正在为更新的点阵图做准备，预计点阵图将采取更鹰派的立场。预期的调整包括将2024年的预期降息从三次减少到两次，一些人猜测可能只降息一次。货币政策预测的这种鹰派倾向将显着影响投资者行为，因为更高的利率通常会抑制加密货币等非收益资产的吸引力。
Current expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the market is preparing for an updated dot chart, which is expected to take a more falcon stance. The expected adjustments include reducing the projected 2024 interest rate reduction from three to two, with some guessing that it will only fall once.
2024年5月美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据定于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布前几个小时发布，这增加了不确定性。近几个月来，市场对美国宏观经济数据反应强烈，任何与预期的偏差都可能导致价格大幅波动。
In May 2024, US consumer price index data ( 加密货币分析师Ted对X发表了评论，指出了本周事件的关键性质：“在上周五强劲的就业数据之后，市场几乎完全消化了7月降息的预期。鲍威尔可能会在周三迅速改变这一状况，尤其是在CPI疲软的情况下。本周有（关闭）重大重新定价的机会，这可能会推动BTC + 加密货币。” The encrypt currency analyst Ted commented on X, pointing out the critical nature of this week's events: “After last Friday's robust employment data, the market almost completely absorbed the expectations of the July rate reduction. Powell may quickly change the situation on Wednesday, especially when 2，现货抛售压力加剧 2, increased spot selling pressure 近期价格下跌的直接催化剂似乎是现货抛售的激增。Alpha dōjō 的分析显示，沉重的抛售压力是导致跌至67，000美元低点的主要原因。在此期间观察到的市场动态表明发生了明显的变化，卖单数量增加，没有足够的买单来维持价格水平。这种不平衡导致之前被认为是68，000美元左右的强劲支撑区域出现突破。 A direct catalyst for recent price declines appears to be a surge in spot sales. Alpha d'j's analysis shows that heavy dumping pressure is the main reason for falling to a low of $67,000. Market dynamics observed during this period suggest a marked change, with an increase in the number of sales orders and insufficient purchases to maintain price levels. 分析师详细阐述了这种情况，“波动性已经卷土重来，BTC自昨天以来下跌了3.5%，至67000美元的低点。这种抛售主要是由严重的现货抛售压力推动的，这是相当负面的。一个主要问题是在抛售发生时缺乏清算。BTC目前处于关键区域；日常结构已被打破。BTC需要在这里反弹，否则我们很可能会回落到较低的6万美元。 The analyst elaborated on this situation, “The volatility has resurfaced, and the BTC has fallen by 3.5 per cent since yesterday to a low point of $67,000. This sale is driven mainly by severe spot selling pressure, which is quite negative. A major problem is the lack of liquidation at the time of the sale. The BTC is now in a critical region; its daily structure has been broken. The BTC needs to rebound here, or we are likely to fall to a low of $60,000. 3，现货比特币 ETF流入连胜结束 3, spot bitcoin ETF inflows to end 现货比特币ETF的投资动态也反映了市场的看跌转向。在连续19天的正流入之后，这些基金昨日经历了总计6490万美元的大量流出。其中值得注意的是灰度比特币信托，其资金流出3950万美元。相比之下，贝莱德的流入量较小，为630万美元。 Current investment dynamics of 其他ETF提供商的表现差异很大。富达（Fidelity）录得300万美元的流出，而Bitwise录得760万美元的流入。相比之下，景顺（Invesco）的流出额为2050万美元，Valkyrie也报告了总计1580万美元的流出。【新浪财经】$FA南方比特币(03066)$ The performance of other ETF providers varies widely. Fidelity recorded an outflow of $3 million, while Bitwise recorded an influx of $7.6 million. In contrast, Invesco recorded an outflow of $20.5 million, and Valkyrie reported a total outflow of $15.8 million. 风险提示：本文仅用于信息分享，不作为投资依据。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Risk reminder: This paper is used only for information sharing and not as a basis for investment.
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