来源 | 港股研究社
作者 | Manjusaka
author & nbsp; nbsp; Manjusaka
2021年至今，有柳夜熙凭借“中国风+赛博朋克”的短视频一夜爆火，也有洛天依“登上春晚”并为北京冬奥献唱，虚拟人开始不断出现在大众视野中。
From 2021 to the present, the virtuals began to appear in public view, with Yoo Yae-hee bursting in one night with a short video entitled “China Wind + Saibonk” and Lottie “Ringing to Spring Night” and singing for Beijing's Winter Olympics.
全球科技公司纷纷加速布局虚拟人赛道。腾讯音乐投资WaveVR，打造虚拟偶像舞台；阿里巴巴、字节跳动投资乐华娱乐，加码虚拟偶像赛道；微软、谷歌以及Mate等海外科技巨头也开发出虚拟人制作的全栈式服务。
Global technology companies have accelerated the deployment of virtual people's lanes. Music is investing in WaveVR, creating virtual idols; Ali Baba, byte, investment in entertainment, plus-coded virtual idols; and technology giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Mate have developed a full-scale set of virtual people's services.
近日，在上海举行的2022世界人工智能大会上，快手推出“虚拟演播助手（KVS）”和“老铁智播间”，展示出发力元宇宙直播间，让虚拟人进入快手内容生态的规划。
In recent days, at the 2022 World Congress on Artificial Intelligence in Shanghai, the fast-track launch of the “Virtual Performing Assistant (KVS)” and the “Old Iron Wise” showcasing the departure of the Ying Yuan Cosmos live room, allowing virtuals to move into fast-hand content eco-planning.
元宇宙概念中，虚拟人是目前最具有落地性的赛道，其商用范围也在不断扩大。
In the meta-cosmology concept, the virtual person is currently the most landed track and its commercial scope is expanding.
乘着元宇宙这股风，快手现有业务能否迎来新的机遇？
Taking advantage of the wind of the meta-cosmos, is there any new opportunity for the fast-track business?
逆风中寻找方向
Looking for directions in the face of the wind
上市公司陆续披露的2022年上半年业绩报告表明，科技互联网整体仍然面临着较大的逆风。
The successive performance reports of listed companies for the first half of 2022 show that the Internet as a whole continues to face a significant backlash.
快手商业化最主要的三条路径中，广告行业受经济增长放缓和疫情反复影响，各品牌削减数字广告支出；直播行业的红利期已过，增速正在放缓；直播电商是唯一高增长的赛道，但该业务在快手整体营收中占比还不足10%。
Among the three most important routes for fast-hand commercialization, the advertising industry has been affected by the slowdown in economic growth and recurrent epidemics, with brands cutting digital advertising expenditures; the dividends in the live industry have passed and are slowing; and the live electricity provider is the only high-growth track, but the business accounts for less than 10 per cent of the total fast-hand income.
复杂形势让投资者谨慎乐观，市场在低谷之中更重视确定性。
Complex circumstances have led investors to be cautiously optimistic and markets to place greater emphasis on certainty in the valley.
宏观逆风中，快手的增长确定性在哪？
Where is the certainty of fast-handed growth in the macro-reverse wind?
快手第二季度尚未实现真正的盈利，净亏损31.76亿元。尽管降本卓有成效，但找到更多收入增长点才是实现健康增长的核心。
In the second quarter of the fast-track season, real profits have not yet been realized, with a net loss of $3.176 billion. While the drop has been effective, finding more income growth points is at the heart of achieving healthy growth.
第二季度财报表明，快手月活MAU为5.87亿，日活DAU为3.47亿，同比有所增长。但根据截至2022年6月我国10.51亿人的网民规模，快手用户规模已经接近天花板。
The second quarter's financial report shows that the fast-working monthly MAU is 587 million and the daily DAU is 347 million, an increase in the same year. But according to the size of the country's 1,051 million Internet users as of June 2022, the size of the fast-working users is close to the ceiling.
在流量红利、资本红利一去不复回的时代，已经占领整个下沉市场的快手，最有效的盈利手段是提升现有业务变现效率。
In an era in which the flow dividend and the capital dividend had not recovered, the fast-tracking hand of the entire sunk market had been occupied, and the most effective means of profit was to increase the efficiency of existing operations.
长期以来，注重社交属性及互动的快手，打造了一个“去中心化、强社交”的内容生态，用户粘性始终保持着较高的水平。二季度，关键指标DAU/MAU超过59%，创下历史新高。
然而，快手单用户价值没有得到充分挖掘。以直播业务为例，第二季度，快手直播付费用户每月ARPU为52.9元，尚未恢复至最高峰时期2018年的54.9元。
However, the value of fast-hand list users is not fully tapped. , for example, takes the case of live streaming operations. In the second quarter, quick-hand paid users have not recovered to their peak of $54.9 in 2018, which is $52.9 per month.
这一背景下，探索元宇宙应用场景，是快手强化自身互动属性优势，发挥现有业务价值的新方向。
Against this background, exploring the applications of the meta-cosmos is a new direction for fast-handedly enhancing the advantages of their interactive attributes and taking advantage of existing business values.
直播间转向元宇宙
turns to meta-cosmos
“一个令人兴奋的机会正在到来，移动互联网十年发展，即将迎来下一波升级，我们称之为全真互联网。”在元宇宙概念尚无热度的2020年，腾讯创始人马化腾就做出了这样的判断。
“A exciting opportunity is coming: , a decade away, and we call it the whole Internet.” In 2020, when the concept of the meta-cosm was not hot, this was the judgement of the founder, Magen Tung.
提到元宇宙，就能联想到“身临其境”这个词。元宇宙能让人与人的连接更紧密，为现有商业模式创造新的价值。
By referring to the meta-cosmos, the word “inhabiting” is associated. The meta-cosmos can bring people closer together and create new value for existing business models.
元宇宙与短视频、直播的相遇，是商业化落地的必然选择。作为唯二的短视频赛道玩家，快手拥有较为丰富的内容生态，而数字人将成为这个生态逐渐完善的重要环节。
The metness of the meta-cosmos with short videos and live broadcasts is an inevitable option for commercialization. As a second-class short video track player, fast hands have a wealth of content ecology, and digital people will become an important part of the process of eco-improvement.
发力元宇宙，快手选择了两条腿走路。虚拟演播助手（KVS）代表着“中之人驱动”数字人的技术路线；老铁智播间代表着无“中之人”，数字人全靠AI驱动的路线。
The power universe, fast-handedly, has chosen two legs to walk. The Virtual Video Assistant (KVS) represents the technological route of the "medium-driving" digital person; the old Iron-train channel represents the path of the "medium-daughter," and the digital person relies entirely on the AI-driven route.
KVS让主播可以和观众产生更多的基于虚拟世界的互动玩法，加深了快手一直强调的社交属性。
KVS allows the anchor to generate more interactive games with the audience based on the virtual world and deepens the social attributes that fast hands have always emphasized.
随着不少头部主播缺位，直播行业愈发趋向细分化、垂直化，中小主播想要脱颖而出，需要给用户带来更好的体验。
With the absence of many headlines, the live streaming industry has become increasingly fragmented and vertical, and small and medium-sized anchors need better experience for their users in order to emerge.
而元宇宙直播的本质是游戏化的互动体验，打破次元壁，增强用户沉浸式体验感。虚拟主播为套路化的直播行业带来了全新的互动体验。
And the essence of this is a playful interactive experience that breaks the sub-wall and enhances the user’s sense of immersion. Virtual hosts bring a whole new kind of interactive experience to the routing of the live broadcast industry.
快手通过虚拟演播助手降低了数字人、特效等工具使用门槛，让大部分普通主播都能参与使用。而老铁智播间更让直播间可以7×24小时直播，并覆盖更多场景。
Shorthands have reduced the threshold for the use of digital, special effects, etc., through virtual acting assistants, allowing most of the regular anchors to participate. The old iron studios allow live broadcasts 7 x 24 hours a day, and cover more scenes.
与此同时，为了吸引更多优势虚拟人，推动平台新业态发展，快手推出了“V-Star虚拟人计划”。
At the same time, in order to attract more advantaged virtuals and promote new business developments in the Platform, the “V-Star Virtual Man Initiative” was launched by the fast-trackers.
快手计划投入百亿级流量，为虚拟人提供冷启及加速成长保障。目前，狐璃璃、机灵小熊猫、万一等虚拟人均入驻快手。其中，国风奇幻少女IP狐璃璃在快手60天获得超200万粉丝。
The fast-track plan is to invest 10 billion-grade flows to provide virtual people with security for cold start-up and accelerated growth. Currently, the fox, smart panda, and so on are all in the fast-track hands. Among them, the national miraculous young girl IP fox gets more than 2 million fans in the fast-track for 60 days.
同时发力两种虚拟人赛道的两种路径，推出巨量流量的扶持计划，快手参与瓜分虚拟人赛道红利的决心显而易见。
The two paths of the two virtual race lanes at the same time, with the introduction of a massive flow support scheme, are evident in the determination of fast-handed participants to divide the benefits of the virtual race.
根据量子位数据，到2030年，我国数字人行业规模预计达到2703亿元。其中，虚拟IP和虚拟化身市场规模将超过1700亿元。
According to Quantum bits, the size of our digital industry is expected to reach $27.3 billion by 2030, of which virtual IP and virtual incarnation markets will be more than $170 billion.
虚拟偶像们将向电商、直播、营销等领域进一步渗透，成为这些行业的新增长动力。
Virtual icons will further infiltrate electricity suppliers, live broadcasts, marketing, etc., and become new engines of growth in these industries.
围绕现有业务创增量
快手的生意经，是基于自家内容生态，通过在线广告、直播打赏以及直播电商变现。
The fast-tracking business is based on home-grown content ecology, realized through online advertising, live reward and live electricity providers.
在2022世界人工智能大会上，快手Y-tech AI技术中心负责人万鹏飞表示（经编辑）：“快手对元宇宙的布局主要围绕现有业务展开。从短期来看，也希望快速地发挥现有业务的价值。”
At the 2022 World Congress on Artificial Intelligence, the head of the Fast-Tech AI Technology Center Man Peng Fei said (ed.): "The fast-handed layout of the meta-cosmos is mainly around the existing business. In the short term, it is also hoped that the value of the existing business will be quickly realized."
首先，对于增长逐渐放缓的直播行业，元宇宙直播作为新业态，成为探索“第二增长曲线”的主要方向。
First, in the case of the industry of live broadcasting, which slows down in growth, as a new business, it is the main direction in which the “second growth curve” is being explored.
在“V-Star计划”百亿流量支持下，具备更低直播门槛、吸粉能力强和用户粘性高等优势，虚拟直播引起了大量主播的兴趣。
With the support of the 10 billion-dollar “V-Star” traffic, a lower live broadcast threshold, a strong powder-sorting capacity and a high degree of user sticky advantage, virtual live broadcasting has generated a great deal of interest in hosting.
随着虚拟演播助手和老铁智播间推出，快手短时间内将会涌现更多虚拟主播，新业态也许将拉动快手直播业务的增长。
With the launch of the virtual show assistant and the old Iron Wise, more virtual anchors will emerge within a short period of time, and the new business will probably boost the growth of the fast-to-live business.
其次，布局元宇宙也是快手广告业务穿越数字广告寒冬的机会。
Secondly, the set-up universe is also an opportunity for fast-hand advertising to pass through the cold winter of digital advertising.
目前，线上营销服务仍然占据快手总收入的半壁江山。不同于抖音的品牌广告，快手的线上营销服务以效果广告为主，即以数据为导向，效果不佳广告主可以选择停止投放。
Currently, online marketing services still account for half of fast-hand gross income. Unlike shivering brand advertising, fast-hand online marketing services are based on effect advertising, which is data-oriented, and poor-impact advertisers can choose to stop posting.
这也意味着，快手平台上的创作者需要通过内容创新与互动增加广告转化率。
It also means that creators on fast-track platforms need to increase the rate of advertising conversion through content innovation and interaction.
在消费受疫情影响持续疲软的时期，广告主的需求无比清晰：高转化率，最好能直接卖东西。
At a time when consumption continues to weaken as a result of the epidemic, the needs of advertisers are incredibly clear: high conversion rates, preferably direct sales.
“元宇宙直播间”沉浸式体验和强互动性让粉丝与创作者粘性更高，有利于广告转化率的提升，成为快手广告业务抗住压力继续增长的契机。
>
最后，还被归入“其他业务”中的直播电商，或许是元宇宙直播潮流的最大受益者。
Finally, it has been categorized as a live power provider in “other business”, perhaps the largest beneficiary of the meta-cosm stream.
直播电商是快手商业化的最小阻力位，它能同时拉动电商业务本身和内循环广告增长。
The live operator is the least resistance to the commercialization of fast-hands, and it can simultaneously boost the growth of the power provider's business itself and internal circular advertising.
然而，快手的一个困境是，尽管其电商业务GMV增长走上了高速，但快手从中获得的收入增长却被限了速。2022年第二季度，快手GMV虽同比增长31.5%至1911.74亿元，但“其他业务”总收入仅21.24亿元。
However, one of the dilemmas of fast-trackers is that, despite the fast-paced growth of their power suppliers, fast-track income growth was limited. In the second quarter of 2022, the fast-track GMV grew by $31.5 to $191,174 million, but total “other business” income was only $2,124 million.
快手电商业务的货币化率（营收/GMV）仅1.1%，其通过买卖商品差价之外获得的收入并不理想。
The rate of monetization (collective/GMV) of the fast-trader's operations is only 1.1 per cent, and its income from the sale of goods outside the margin is not ideal.
快手普惠的生态成就了平台大量的快品牌，但这些白牌大多不会像大品牌一样大手笔投广告。快手想要提高货币化率，就必须提升广告、推广位等平台直接获利手段的价值。
Fast-hand, inclusive ecology has produced a lot of fast brands for the platform, but most white cards do not advertise like big brands. In order to raise the rate of monetization, fast-trackers must raise the value of the platform’s direct profit-making tools, such as advertising, promotion, etc.
在“大搞信任电商”的底层逻辑下，快手新市井商业核心是通过浓厚的社区氛围建立“熟人”场景，完成购物者消费习惯从“人找货”到“人找人”的转变。
Under the bottom logic of “trusting in power suppliers”, the business center of the fast-forward new market is to create a “know-your-own” scene through a strong community atmosphere that completes the shift in the habits of shopping people from “people looking for goods” to “people looking for people”.
这种信任关系的建立非常依赖于用户体验。随着虚拟演播助手推出，主播可以在元宇宙直播间中与观众进行零距离的实时互动，带来更新奇的带货体验。
Building this relationship of trust depends very much on the user’s experience. With the launch of the virtual show assistant, the anchor can interact with the audience at zero distance in real time between meta-cosm live, bringing up-to-date cargo experiences.
元宇宙直播颠覆了传统直播模式，帮助主播与用户建立更紧密的联系，有利于快手释放公域流量及私域流量的商业价值。
By destabilizing the traditional live broadcast mode, it helps to establish a closer link between the anchor and the users and facilitates the rapid release of the commercial value of public and private area flows.
围绕“元宇宙直播”这个新业态，快手不仅仅是在追逐热点，更是希望通过降低虚拟主播门槛、赋能内容生态，在流量普惠的经营思路中，为广告、直播、电商三大现有业务找到新的增长支点。
Around the new business of “Mega-Cosm” the fast-trackers are not just chasing hot spots, but are hoping to find new growth poles for the three existing businesses of advertising, live broadcasting and electricity suppliers, by lowering the virtual anchoring threshold, empowering content ecology, and in flow-inclusive business thinking.
本文来源：港股研究社（公众号：ganggushe）——旨在帮助中国投资者理解世界，专注报道港股，对港股感兴趣的朋友赶紧关注我们。
Source: Port Research Agency (public number: ganggushe) - aims to help Chinese investors understand the world, focus on the Hong Kong Unit, and focus on our friends who are interested in the Hong Kong Unit.
本文首发于微信公众号：港股研究社。文章内容属作者个人观点，不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作，风险请自担。
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
发表评论