文/新浪财经专栏作家 肖磊
Man/New Wave Finances columnist Xiao Xiao Xiao Xiao
从比特币受到如此之高的关注可以看出，未来货币一定是自下而上的一种改变，而非自上而下的一种设计。美元、欧元、人民币，都不太可能成为未来货币形态，已经备受诟病的主权信用货币也只是一个过客。
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从比特币受到如此之高的关注可以看出，未来货币一定是自下而上的一种改变，而非自上而下的一种设计。美元、欧元、人民币，或是国际货币基金组织[微博]的特别提款权(special drawing right,SDR，亦称纸黄金)，都不太可能成为未来货币形态。 It can be seen from the high level of attention to Bitcoin that the future currency must be a bottom-up change rather than a top-down design. The dollar, the euro, the renminbi, or the IMF special drawing rights (special drawing right, SDR, also known as paper gold) of the United States dollar, the dollar, or the IMF are unlikely to become the future currency shape. 从历史上来看，黄金白银作为持久的货币形态，实际上是人们在对社会“制度”没有信仰的情况下，自下而上的一种天然货币意识。几千年来，任何统治者都没有成功的自主设计出一种能够持续使用上百年的货币。这也是截至上个世纪70年代，人类货币体系依然需要用“金本位”来维持的根本原因。 Historically, gold and silver have been a natural, bottom-up monetary consciousness in the absence of belief in the “system” of society. For thousands of years, no ruler has succeeded in designing a currency that can last for centuries. 在货币竞争再次激烈的未来世界，已经备受诟病的主权信用货币也只是一个过客。 In the future world, where currency competition is once again intense, sovereign credit currencies, which are already plagued, are also a mere passover. 黄金有价，比特币无价 中国流行一句话，叫“黄金有价玉无价”。对这句话的解读有很多种，有人认为这是对玉的赞美，也有人指出，这说明黄金和玉是两个标准化完全不同的物品，黄金论重量定价，没有唯一性，玉则独一无二，凭借买家的喜好产生价格。 China has a popular phrase called “gold is priceless.” There are many interpretations of this phrase, which some consider to be a compliment to Jade, and it has been pointed out that this suggests that gold and jade are two completely different items of standardization, that gold is priced by weight, that there is no exclusivity, and that jade is unique, and that prices are generated by the preferences of buyers. 实际上黄金和玉在古代都可以当做货币。《管子》中，管仲曰：“先王以珠玉为上币，黄金为中币，刀布为下币。”可以说在古代，一切珍贵的商品和资源，都可以跟玉这样非标化的物品交换，包括城池。秦昭王愿以十五城换和氏璧(价值连城的由来)，说明玉是具备“接受度”、“稀有性”、“可储存”等货币特点的。 Indeed, gold and jade can be used as currencies in ancient times. In the Pipeline, it is also said that: “The King has made Jade his upper currency, gold his Chinese currency, and the sword his lower currency.” In ancient times, it can be said that all precious goods and resources can be exchanged with unmarked items such as jade, including the city pool. King Qin would like to exchange 15 cities for jade and jade for monetary characteristics such as “acceptance”, “relative”, “storable” and “storable”. 几千年之后，人类出现了新的货币形态，包括主权信用货币(纸币)、比特币(电子货币)。回到千年前，如果把纸币比作黄金，那么比特币可以看成是当时的玉。现代社会，在很多规则和制度的约束下，纸币拥有了跟黄金一样的信用，作为货币得到了广泛使用。而比特币虽然具备“接受度”、“稀有性”、“可储存”等特点，但信用及价值是凭借买家的喜好来产生，跟“玉”一样，纵然昂贵，却很难成为大众所使用的货币。 Thousands of years later, new forms of currency have emerged, including sovereign credit currencies (paper currency), and bitcoin (electronic currency). Back a millennium ago, when paper currency was compared to gold, bitcoins could be regarded as the finest of the time. 货币到底需要具备什么样的特点，实际上随着人类的进步，也在发生着众多变化。在慢长的货币进化史当中，玉、钻石等实际上比黄金更稀有，更珍贵，但为什么没有打败黄金，成为大众流通的货币呢？马克思在思考了多年之后，得出一个结论：金银天然不是货币，但货币天然是金银。 What is the nature of the currency, and indeed with human progress, is changing a lot. In the slow history of monetary evolution, Jade, Diamond, etc., is actually rarer and more precious than gold, but why has gold not been defeated and become a currency in circulation? After many years of thinking, Marx has concluded that gold is not a currency, but money is a gold currency. 货币形态发生改变的根源 The Root Causes of Changes in Currency Patterns 主权信用货币能够完全取代金银，成为流通的大众货币，事实上货币形态已经因一些原因发生了重大改变。这可能是马克思同志没有想到的。 Sovereign credit currencies can completely replace gold and silver as a popular currency in circulation, and the currency has in fact changed dramatically for a number of reasons. This may not have occurred to Comrade Marx. 金银能够在几千年的时间里充当货币，实际上是在这几千年里，无论是统治者还是老百姓，都把金银当成了一种“制度”，就像现代人相信“法治”一样。无论统治者如何更换，最多是给金银上面烙上不同的标志罢了，并没有改变金银作为货币这种形态。 Gold and silver can be a currency for thousands of years, and indeed for thousands of years, both rulers and ordinary people, it has been treated as a “system” as if modern people believed in the “rule of law.” No matter how the rulers change, at best, they are branded with a different logo, and it has not changed the form of gold and silver as a currency. 在权大于法的年代，金银不仅代表着一种制度，还代表着一种对权力的制衡。金银之所以能够一直充当货币，正是因为几千年来，人类社会的管理制度并未发生重大改变。在金银作为货币的年代，统治者可以随时、任意改变律条，但无法改变金银的地位。就连统治者，也很超越对金银的信仰。我想，这也是马克思为什么要说，金银天然是货币的思考所在。 In times when power is greater than law, gold and silver not only represent a system, but also a checks and balances of power. Gold and silver have been a currency only because, for thousands of years, the management system of human society has not changed significantly. In times when gold and silver have been a currency, rulers can change the rules at any time and at any time, but they cannot change the status of gold and silver. 工业革命之后，人类的发展走出了一个新的方向和台阶，西方诸多国家民众不再为吃饱肚子而奋斗，对自由、民主的向往推动了各类制度和组织形态的成长和完善。这些制度包括西方国家民主制度、现代公司管理制度、各国不同形式的法治制度等，这进一步降低了“人”的统治力，人们开始保护和仰仗现代社会制度，而不是金银。 After the industrial revolution, human development took a new direction and step, and the peoples of many Western countries stopped struggling to feed themselves, and their aspirations to freedom and democracy contributed to the growth and improvement of systems and organizational patterns. These regimes, including Western democracy, modern corporate governance, and different forms of rule of law in various countries, further reduced “human” rule, and people began to protect and rely on modern social systems, rather than gold and silver. 也可以这么说，自工业革命之后，人类社会制度的普遍性变革给世界带来了颠覆性变化。对于货币来说，现代社会的不同在于，执政者可以改变货币形式，但很难改变社会制度，因此金银作为货币的历史也将随之发生变化，人们开始转而信仰制度，而非金银。只要符合相关法律制度，任何东西都可以成为货币，哪怕是一张纸。 The difference in modern society is that, for money, the rulers can change the form of money, but it is difficult to change the social system, so that the history of gold and silver as money will change with it, and people will start to believe in the system, not gold and silver. Anything that conforms to the relevant legal system can be money, even if it is a piece of paper. 主权信用货币实际上是“制度”背书 Sovereign Credit Currency is in fact a “system” endorsement 一些经济学家认为，一张纸能够成为货币，主要原因在于有政府信用背书。但他们忘了，历史以来，全球各地都有强大的帝国政权作为支撑，但这些国家的信用为何没有让一张纸一块布成为货币？罗马帝国等发展到后期的时候，统治者宁愿选择在金币中参假(加入铜等)，以获得更多的金币，也不敢废除“金”这一货币形态。 Some economists argue that the main reason why a piece of paper can become a currency is because there is a endorsement of government credit. They forget that there have been powerful imperial regimes throughout the world since history, but why the credit of these countries has not allowed a piece of paper to become a currency? 可以看出，“政权”背书也很难成为纸币存在或持续下去的一个支撑点。在制度没有出现根本性转变之前，就连皇帝、国王，也不可能超越对金银的崇拜。相反，在制度出现根本性改变之后，就算有机会回到金银本位时代，也是比较难的。实际上在黄金退出货币市场的几十年里，黄金有很多机会重回货币宝座。 It is also difficult to see that “regime” endorsements can be a support point for the existence or sustainability of banknotes. Even emperors and kings cannot rise above the worship of gold and silver until the system is fundamentally transformed. 1997年亚洲金融风暴期间，韩国等国家，实际上也是重振了黄金的货币属性，用来偿还外债；在伊拉克萨达姆政权的后期，该国民众已经不得不开始使用黄金作为货币。但等等这些情况，都是阶段性的，都没有让黄金重返货币历史舞台。因为诸多“制度”是不可逆的，在塑造纸币信用方面，与其说是政府发挥的作用，还不如说是“制度”发挥的作用。 During the Asian financial storm of 1997, countries like South Korea, in fact, revived the monetary attributes of gold to service their external debt; in the late days of the Saddam regime in Iraq, the country’s population had to start using gold as a currency. But none of these cases allowed gold to return to the stage of monetary history. 货币已经成为一种管理方法，而不再是简单的交易媒介。产生货币的模式也在发生着重大转变。在“抵押”、“杠杆”、“负债”等信用存在形式不断提高经济效率的情况下，诞生了新的信用和货币。当然，有人认为这是危机的根源，而我认为这恰恰是货币的未来。 Currency has become a management method, not a simple trade medium. The pattern of currency generation is also undergoing a major shift. With credit forms such as “collateralization, leverage, and indebtedness” increasing economic efficiency, new credits and currencies are born. 主权信用货币的本质是“制度”，只要人们对现有国家制度和组织形式充满依赖和保护意识，主权信用货币这种形式就会在不断的进化当中一直存在下去，直到诞生以个人为信用保证的，自下而上的，新的全球化、去国家化制度架构，新的货币形态自然就会出现。 The nature of sovereign credit currencies is “regime”, and as long as there is a sense of dependency and protection on existing national systems and forms of organization, the form of sovereign credit currencies will continue to evolve throughout the evolution until they are born with individual credit guarantees, bottom-up, new globalization, de-nationalized institutional structures, and new monetary forms will naturally emerge. 比特币的矛盾点和局限性 Bitcoin's contradictions and limitations 当2009年比特币的发明者以颠覆支付体系的思想推出比特币的时候，很多参与者认为这是一项伟大的发明，给货币和经济领域带来了新的曙光。但比特币并没有从制度层面解决任何问题，比特币无论是从去中心化还是稀有性方面，都没有超越钻石、玉等作为货币的“优良”属性。比特币标榜的便捷性和安全性早已不是人们担忧纸币前途的依据。在比特币没有出现之前，网络银行及互联网支付体系已运行良久。 When Bitcoin’s inventors launched Bitcoin in 2009 with the idea of subverting the payment system, many participants thought that it was a great invention, bringing new light to the monetary and economic spheres. But Bitcoin did not solve any problems at the institutional level, and Bitcoin did not go beyond the “good” attributes of diamonds, jade, and so on. 但需要承认的一点是，比特币确实是一种“小众”货币形态。这种形态就像黄金作为货币时期的“玉”和“钻石”等一样，价格可以很高，可以出售变现，换来等价或价值更高的东西，但它天然不是货币，货币天然更不是它，因为未来的人类，对制度的依赖胜过对技术和人本身的依赖。 But what needs to be acknowledged is that bitcoin is indeed a “small” currency form. Like gold as a “taz” and “diamond” during the monetary period, it can be very expensive, sold for realization, for equivalent or higher value, but it is not a currency, much less a currency, because the future human being is more dependent on the system than on technology and people themselves. 在对“制度”取代金银成为人们新信仰的过程当中，金银作为“天然货币”，也逐渐被淘汰。人们不再关心货币是什么，而在乎的是，货币如何产生、如何管理。从设计未来货币的角度来讲，比特币不是进步，是倒退，它只是将一种形式的不公平转换为另一种形式的更大的不公平。 In the process of replacing the “regime” with the “natural currency” as a new faith, the gold and silver have been phased out. People no longer care about what the currency is, but about how it is generated and how it is managed. Bitcoin, from the point of view of designing the future currency, is not a step forward, but a step backwards, and it simply transforms one form of injustice into another. 另外，比特币的发明者“中本聪”本身是有很多矛盾思想的，一方面他认为比特币是一种对支付体系的革新，会让整个交易变得更加安全，成本更低。但另一方面又希望比特币能够取代纸币，解决纸币面临的所有问题。他混淆了方向和概念，支付问题和货币问题看上去联系紧密，实际上是两个不同的问题，货币是交易媒介，支付则仅仅是交易的过程和证据。 Moreover, the inventor of Bitcoin’s “medium bellicose” itself has many contradictory ideas: on the one hand, he believes that bitcoin is an innovation to the payment system that will make the entire transaction safer and less costly. On the other hand, he hopes that bitcoin will replace paper currency and solve all the problems it faces. He confuses directions and concepts, and the payment and currency issues seem closely linked, and actually two different issues, with money being the medium of the transaction, and payment being just the process and evidence of the transaction. 中本聪真正的想法跟普通人一样，充满着对现有货币制度的担忧。他曾不加掩饰的说，传统货币(他指的是主权信用货币)最根本的问题，是信任。央行[微博]必须让人信任它不会让货币贬值，但是历史上这样的事情一再发生。银行本应该帮我们保管钱财并以电子化形式流通，但是他们放贷出去，让财富在一轮轮的信用泡沫中浮沉。 中本聪甚至反感“放贷”，而放贷是多么有效的货币运转方式。另外，既然主权信用货币最根本的问题是信任，说明中本聪并没有否认主权信用货币这种货币形式，只是对目前各国货币管理制度表示不满意、不信任，而比特币所解决的，并不是货币的信任问题，比特币也无法限制拥有比特币的人去放贷。 In addition, since the most fundamental issue of sovereign credit currency is trust, it does not deny the form of sovereign credit currency, but simply expresses dissatisfaction with and mistrust in the current monetary system of countries, while bitcoin solves that it is not a question of monetary trust, and Bitcoin is not able to limit the lending of bitcoin to those who own it. 在人类如此巨大的进步面前，痴迷于比特币的人，甚至这样认为，国家是暴力、压迫、盗窃和所有形式的胁迫的主要源头，鼓励大家不要再用你的税收来给国家提供资金，直接去黑市(比特币交易平台丝绸之路管理者所言)。不难看出，比特币最早除了要解决支付相关问题之外，是一些弱势群体对当下货币管理制度不满的一种极端表达方式。就如同历史上的农民起义军，在不满当局的统治时，往往会不顾一切揭竿而起。 In the face of such enormous human progress, those who are obsessed with Bitcoin, even believe that the State is the main source of violence, oppression, theft and all forms of coercion, and encourage us not to use your taxes to finance the country and go directly to the black market. It is easy to see that Bitcoin was the first extreme expression of some vulnerable groups’ dissatisfaction with the current monetary system, except for payment-related problems. 未来货币关注什么 What's the future of money about 实际上在现代社会制度面前，人们愿意纳税，是因为要向政府购买服务，政府的诞生是民众的意愿。比特币放大了人们对主权货币的不信任感，放大了技术解决问题的能力。其“限量”、不贬值的货币设计模式，思想逻辑依然是，宁愿在贫穷中享受所谓的“公平”，也不愿在富裕中忍受不平等。从这个角度来讲，比特币的设计理念否定了现代货币管理制度的作用，以及不断进步这一事实。 Indeed, in modern social systems, people are willing to pay taxes because they want to buy services from the government, which is the will of the people. Bitcoin magnifies distrust of sovereign currencies and the ability of technology to solve problems. Its “limited” and non-depreciated model of currency design, the logic remains that it prefers to enjoy what is called “equity” in poverty, and not to endure inequality in wealth. 以通胀和就业等为目标的货币管理理念虽然不是终点，但本身就是一个巨大的进步，比如英国法律规定了2%的通胀红色警戒线，通胀数据一旦超过2%，英国央行行长就必须给财政部等写信解释原因，接受质询等。 The idea of monetary management, which targets inflation and employment, is not an end point, but is in itself a great advance, as in the case of British law, which provides a 2 per cent red line for inflation, and when inflation data exceed 2 per cent, the Governor of the British Central Bank has to write to the Treasury to explain the reasons, to be questioned, etc. 通胀本身与货币、经济、社会等管理制度有关，跟货币形态没有太大关系，同样是主权信用货币，一些国家货币的稳定性很强，而一些国家恶性通胀严重。未来货币如何更好的抑制恶性通胀，变得更便捷、更安全等都必须仰仗于制度，而不是技术或某种货币形态。便捷性和安全性从未成为支付体系及货币体系发展的最大挑战。技术倒是可以用来降低实现各种目标的成本。 Inflation itself is related to monetary, economic, social, and other regulatory regimes, not so much to monetary patterns as to sovereign credit currencies, which are stable in some countries, and to hyperinflation in others. How currencies can better contain malignant inflation in the future, and become more accessible and safer, must depend on institutions rather than on technology or some form of currency. 由于各种管理制度的进步本身没有终点，所以新的货币形态也不会停留在“主权信用货币”这一层面。 Since progress in various regulatory regimes does not end in itself, the new currency shape will not remain at the “sovereign credit currency” level. 目前所有国家都在研究，如何让货币管理更科学。美国、英国等的货币管理模式不代表未来，但具备更长时间试验的可能。人们不会永无休止的讨论是否让黄金或比特币等作为大众货币，更多的方向是如何让货币管理制度借助黄金、比特币等变得更加有可信度。但货币管理的障碍不是管理本身，而是缓慢的全球化进程。 The US, Britain, etc. do not represent the future, but have the potential to be tested for longer. There will be no endless discussion as to whether gold or bitcoin are used as a popular currency, and how monetary management systems can be made more credible through gold, bitcoins, and so on. 欧元“统一”了欧洲诸多国家，但问题始终不断。全球依然有无数的经济体处在博弈、对抗状态，这对新的货币形态的诞生是一个阻碍。但无论如何，未来货币的关注点，依然是“制度”。互联网技术对完善和改进货币管理方法等领域的贡献会越来越高，但并不会成为未来货币真正的突破口。 The euro has “unified” many countries in Europe, but the problems persist. Countless economies around the world are still in a state of play and confrontation, which is a hindrance to the emergence of new monetary patterns. 未来货币从哪里诞生？ Where did the future currency come from? 股票完全可以变成货币，如果有制度支撑，你可以用所持有的股票来购买该企业的任何产品。如果各企业之间建立认可，股票这种货币形式就可以跨企业来支撑买卖活动，股票自然就会发展成为大众货币，因为全世界的上市公司足以提供人类所有的生活必需品。 Equity can become a currency, and if it is supported by a system, you can buy any of the company’s products from the stock you hold. If an enterprise establishes an agreement, the monetary form of the stock can support the business, and the stock will naturally grow into a public currency, because the world’s listed companies are sufficient to provide all the necessities of human life. 而我发现的，并不是类似“股票”这种依然需要提前赋予某种权利的货币逻辑，实际上货币更需要自我做主，人生来就有信用，人生来就应该拥有货币。 And I find that it is not a monetary logic, like “equity”, that still requires the early granting of certain rights; in fact, the currency needs to be self-owned, to be given credit in life and to have money in life. 简单的来说，人只要生活，就在产生信用。在有意无意的各类社会、经济活动当中释放着信用。随着人类的进步，这些信用数据不断的被发现，一个人在没有创造出可出售产品或服务的情况下，依然会获得各种信用“积分”，比如一个评价，一次投票、一次聚会，甚至是看一场电影。这些活动本身就是在释放信用。 In short, people live their lives to generate credit. Credit is released in all kinds of social and economic activities, whether intentionally or not. As humans progress, these credit data are constantly being discovered, and a person who does not create products or services to sell will still get credit scores, such as an evaluation, a vote, a party, or even a movie. These activities are in themselves releasing credit. 就像国内阿里巴巴[微博]和京东商城[微博]正在通过用户信用记录来“放贷”一样，这种信用数据实际上已经代表了自我产生货币的能力。我把这种发展趋势称为，信用“天生”的逻辑，是每个人获得货币的一种天然权力。这种权利在时下这个历史时刻开始被激发出来，但它跟比特币、Q币等数字货币的获取和经营方式有天壤之别。 This credit data actually represents the ability to generate a currency by itself, as is the case with the domestic Aliba and the Guangdong Business City , which is a natural power to acquire currency at a time when every person's currency begins to operate. 从货币产生的原始逻辑来讲，这类信用“积分”获取方式更加公平和分散，每个组织为每个用户所赋予的信用积分负责，就像不同学校、国家所颁发的技术等级、学历、护照等获得其他国家认可一样。信用产生于各类经济活动当中，而不是之后。 From the original logic of currency generation, this credit “centre” is obtained in a more equitable and decentralized manner, with each organization responsible for the credit credits assigned to each user, just as different schools, countries issue technical grades, educational qualifications, passports, etc. are recognized by other countries. Credit is derived from various types of economic activity, not later. 每个企业、每个组织、以自身的资源对所能承载的信用“量”做出保证，并划定边界。这种信用积分可以在任何国家赋予抵押、融资、投资、消费等权利，人的富有程度也按此信用积分的高低来衡量。 Each enterprise, each organization, with its own resources, guarantees and delineates the boundaries of the credit that it can carry. Such credit credits can be granted in any country in terms of collateral, financing, investment, consumption, etc. 信用“积分”就是个人的财富数字，绑定在每个人身上，且时刻变动着。由于这些积分由企业作为购买商品或提供融资的保证，由政府作为提供服务的依据，因此整个社会产生了新的，以个人信用为前提的货币形态。这种形态以精准的信用创造轨迹做备案，大大的提高了货币分配的公平性和持续性，有助于破解公平和效率不能兼得的社会难题，进一步促进了全球性的互动，其对人类的贡献度也将更大。 “Credits” of credit are individual wealth figures, tied to each individual and constantly changing. Since these credits are used by the enterprise as a guarantee for the purchase of goods or the provision of financing, the Government as the basis for the provision of services, society as a whole has created a new currency pattern based on individual credit. 这一切系于互联网，但并非源自互联网，互联网确实改变了很多东西，但诸如工业革命、互联网等是在什么样的制度下诞生的，这个更值得思考。中国目前进入了一个飞速发展的时代，互联网金融等正在改变人们对传统经济、货币制度的看法，但整个社会更重大的改变在于，人们逐步开始信仰“制度”。 All of this comes from the Internet, but not from the Internet, which does change a lot, but under which systems such as the industrial revolution, the Internet, etc., it is all the more interesting to think about. China is now entering an era of rapid development, and Internet finance, among others, is changing people’s perception of traditional economic and monetary systems, but the more significant change in society as a whole is that people are gradually beginning to believe in “regimes.” 正是由于对制度的信仰，未来的货币的诞生顺序一定是自下而上的，是对个人权利的一种释放。信用“积分”实际上正是诞生于普通的个人经济社会活动，是把个人的信用当做一种期货来制定合约，让个人信用证券化、货币化，提前发挥价值，是一种以合约为约束的个人规划、成长、奋斗史。 It is precisely because of its belief in the system that the future currency must be born in a bottom-up order, which is a release of individual rights. Credits are actually born out of ordinary individual economic and social activities, using individual credit as a future for contract making, securitizing individual credit, monetizing value ahead of time, and a history of personal planning, growth, and struggle that is bound by contract. 如果说主权信用货币时代用通胀这种东西激发了人们的创造力和消费欲望，那么个人信用货币时代将会激发人们提高生存质量和挑战极限的欲望，最富有的人可能将不再是企业家，而是吉尼斯纪录保持者或奥运会冠军。因为到了那个时代，普通消费品已经非常充足，人们甚至会认为，人生来就应该吃饱、喝足并且拥有汽车和健康等等。现代意义上的货币就会失去了原有的用途。 If the age of sovereign credit money stimulates creativity and consumer appetite with inflation, the age of individual credit money will inspire the desire to improve the quality of life and the limits of the challenge. The richest people will probably no longer be entrepreneurs, but will be Guinness record keepers or Olympic champions. 在个人信用货币时代，人类会变得更加富足、自由、多彩。但这种个人信用货币的释放，需要打破国界，需要全球各类组织之间的互相认可，需要去国家化，需更强大的数据管理能力。所以新的货币形态纵然近在眼前，但又遥不可及。 In the age of individual credit currencies, humans will become richer, freer, and more diverse. But the release of such individual credit currencies will require the breaking of national boundaries, mutual recognition among global organizations, denationalization, and stronger data-management capabilities. 财经专栏作家，外汇市场观察员 肖磊 Financial columnist, foreign exchange market observer, Shaw. (本文作者介绍：财经专栏作家) (Introduction by author: Financial columnist) 本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用，请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。
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